Watching the price of oil go up these days is a little like watching a river rise. At what point do we need to get the sandbags? When should we sound the warning horns? What is flood stage?

On Wednesday, the main U.S. oil contract hit $100 a barrel before retreating to $98.10. That was the highest price in more than two years.

Of course, prices could always go down. But with increasing global demand and widespread unrest in the Middle East, it’s possible that the price of fuel ”” by the barrel and by the gallon ”” will continue to rise. And when the price of oil rises, the price of just about everything else ”” driving, heating, shopping, eating and more ”” starts to move up too.

Flood level may be closer than we think.

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On the evening of Sunday 13 February, an estimated 45 Christians were temporarily detained overnight by the Iranian authorities in various towns and cities, including at least five people who were held in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison.

At least one woman was detained in Mashad, while two men were detained in Ahwaz, and other men in Karaj, Robat Karim and Dezful. One man and his pregnant wife were released after being informed that they must return for questioning once their child is born.

The wave of arrests and temporary detentions by the Iranian government appear to be part of the government’s wider tactic of repression and intimidation of the Christian community.

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ELEANOR HALL: Now Abdul, were you part of the revolution in Egypt?

ABDUL: Yes, I was actually. I flew out from London to join them here.

ELEANOR HALL: So you were part of the revolution in Egypt. How does what happened there compare to what you are hearing about in Libya?

ABDUL: Oh, absolutely nothing. There is no comparison whatsoever. I mean even though there was what 300, 400 casualties here, it was peaceful compared to what is happening over there. They are not using water cannons against them, they are not using tear gas. They are using live ammunition. I’ve even been told that there is helicopter gunships who are flying over crowds and opening fire into them.

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I hope that our leaders will be modest enough to see how (and how often) what we have done or left undone in the Middle East has backfired on us. We have spent trillions of dollars and spilled untold blood in a seemingly endless effort to bring democracy, American style, to Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet Egyptians ”” citizens of a nation with more people than Iraq and Afghanistan combined ”” won the right to write their own future in just 18 days and with little to no U.S. help.

These facts alone should humble us.
Yet I also hope that we do not trade hubris for paralysis. In the face of the ironies of Egyptian history, I must confess to being tempted to leave things elsewhere in the hands of fate or providence ”” to say with my Muslim friends, “Inshallah,” or with my Christian friends, “Thy will be done.”

But as Niebuhr reminds us, “we must exercise our power.” We must do so, however, in the absence of the hubris that characterized our past foreign policies….

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The other night I found myself dreaming, drifting simultaneously through two parallel worlds, 800 years apart.

In the first vision, I was on the ramparts of the Kingdom of Jerusalem in July 1187. News came in from Galilee that the Crusader Armies had been decimated by the overwhelming Muslim forces of the great Sultan Saladin at the Battle of Hattin. Jerusalem, already an island in an angry, surging Muslim sea, was about to be totally engulfed.

My second dream was in the same place, but I was witnessing a 21st-century Islamic encirclement of modern-day Israel. This second trance was apparently shared by some Israeli columnists who openly fear Egypt’s chaotic regime could be followed by an extremist Islamic government, reinforcing that nightmare Crusader scenario of encirclement.

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‘Allah is our objective; the Prophet is our leader; the Quran is our law; Jihad is our way; dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.” So goes the motto of the Muslim Brotherhood.

What’s extraordinary about this maxim is the succinct way that it captures the political dimension of Islam. Even more extraordinary is the capacity of these five pillars of faith to attract true believers. But the most remarkable thing of all is the way the Brotherhood’s motto seduces Western liberals.

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Episcopal Church missionary Paul-Gordon Chandler is returning to Cairo on Wednesday after a 10-day respite from Egypt’s political uprising.

“Speaking with our friends on the telephone in Cairo, it is clear that they feel empowered, and that the culture of fear that they have lived under within an authoritarian government has disappeared,” Chandler wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. “There is a sense of profound hope in the streets and a common feeling of good will towards each other. Of course the journey to true representative democracy is a long journey.”

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The quick pace of protests and two regime changes in the Middle East over the last month has stretched the U.S. intelligence community as it scrambles to keep up with events and maintain crucial counter-terrorism contacts, top intelligence officials said Wednesday.

Intelligence analysts had extensive reports on the tense economic and social conditions in the region, but were unable to predict when that volatile mix would ignite enough unrest to topple a government, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said during a hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

“We are not clairvoyant,” Clapper said.

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Our beloved country Egypt is going through a critical time which requires all of us to be united, working together in order to achieve “freedom, democracy and social equality” which are at the heart of the Youth Revolution of 25 January 2011. Without achieving these goals, the Revolution will have been mere words. Therefore, with strong hands, hopeful hearts and with patience, we all need to work each in our own field, until Egypt becomes a developed democratic country. Only then will Egypt regain its pioneering place in the Middle East, a position it has held over the centuries.

We are pleased with the decision of the Minister of Interior to reinstate the motto of the police: “Police in the service of the People.” We hope and trust that the police will make their motto a reality, actively providing a real service to citizens, not just monitoring them. On the other hand, we as citizens need to rebuild our trust in the police, start a new page, and work together for the sake of our beloved country Egypt.

We appreciate the role of the High Council of the Egyptian Army in achieving the dreams of our great nation, that Egypt would become a secular and democratic country in which all of its citizens enjoy their rights which will be guaranteed by the new Constitution.

The Most Rev. Dr. Mouneer H. Anis
Bishop of the Episcopal / Anglican Diocese of Egypt
with North Africa and the Horn of Africa
President Bishop of the Episcopal / Anglican
Province of Jerusalem and the Middle East

Epitaphs for the Mubarak government all note that the mobilizing power of the Internet was one of the Egyptian opposition’s most potent weapons. But quickly lost in the swirl of revolution was the government’s ferocious counterattack, a dark achievement that many had thought impossible in the age of global connectedness. In a span of minutes just after midnight on Jan. 28, a technologically advanced, densely wired country with more than 20 million people online was essentially severed from the global Internet.

The blackout was lifted after just five days, and it did not save President Hosni Mubarak. But it has mesmerized the worldwide technical community and raised concerns that with unrest coursing through the Middle East, other autocratic governments ”” many of them already known to interfere with and filter specific Web sites and e-mails ”” may also possess what is essentially a kill switch for the Internet.

Because the Internet’s legendary robustness and ability to route around blockages are part of its basic design, even the world’s most renowned network and telecommunications engineers have been perplexed that the Mubarak government succeeded in pulling the maneuver off.

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In Europe, the popular uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East have been interpreted using a model that is more than 30 years old: the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. Commentators have been expecting to see Islamist groups – the Muslim Brotherhood and their local equivalents – either at the head of the movement or lying in wait, ready to seize power. But the discretion of the Muslim Brotherhood has surprised and disconcerted them: where have the Islamists gone?

Look at those involved in the uprisings, and it is clear that we are dealing with a post-Islamist generation. For them, the great revolutionary movements of the 1970s and 1980s are ancient history, their parents’ affair. The members of this young generation aren’t interested in ideology: their slogans are pragmatic and concrete – “Erhal!” or “Go now!”. Unlike their predecessors in Algeria in the 1980s, they make no appeal to Islam; rather, they are rejecting corrupt dictatorships and calling for democracy. This is not to say that the demonstrators are secular; but they are operating in a secular political space, and they do not see in Islam an ideology capable of creating a better world.

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Moaz Abdel Karim, an affable 29-year-old who was among a handful of young activists who plotted the recent protests here, is the newest face of the Muslim Brotherhood. His political views on women’s rights, religious freedom and political pluralism mesh with Western democratic values. He is focused on the fight for democracy and human rights in Egypt.

A different face of the Brotherhood is that of Mohamed Badi, 66-year-old veterinarian from the Brotherhood’s conservative wing who has been the group’s Supreme Guide since last January. He recently pledged the Brotherhood would “continue to raise the banner of jihad” against the Jews, which he called the group’s “first and foremost enemies.” He has railed against American imperialism, and calls for the establishment of an Islamic state.

After Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Friday amid the region’s most dramatic grassroots uprising since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the Brotherhood became poised to assume a growing role in the country’s political life. The question for many is: Which Brotherhood?

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As the day unfolded, strikes and protests were held outside a string of government offices and at workplaces, eventually prompting a televised statement from Egypt’s military rulers.

The best guarantee of a smooth transition to civilian rule would be if all Egyptians went back to work, the military said.

Strikes and disputes would “damage the security of the country”, the army’s ruling high council said.

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Two priests with strong ties to Egypt said they feared young Egyptian Catholics will turn away from the church because it did not back the protests that led to the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.

“If we lose the youth in the church, then we are done,” said Father Makarios Isaac, an Egyptian-born priest of the Archdiocese of Toronto and an associate of Maryknoll Fathers and Brothers who is currently based in Kenya.

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{BOB] ABERNETHY: There was a poll that came out this week taken by phone in Cairo and Alexandria asking questions about these things, and a very low percentage, 15 percent, said they approved of the Muslim Brotherhood. Has there been a change since years ago in that as a new generation has come up?

[GENEIVE] ABDO: Well, I think that the statistic that people that have used is 20 percent generally””that if there were free elections today, 20 percent of Egyptians would vote for Brotherhood candidates, but I think that could be sort of an underestimation.

ABERNETHY: But so what would that mean in a government if the Muslim Brotherhood or any strongly Islamist group had influence?

ABDO: Well, there are a lot of parties in Egypt. There are a lot of political parties, as we all know. Some of them are secular, some are nationalist. The Brotherhood is only one of them. However, the Brotherhood is very well organized, and they’ve been around for a long time. They’re a social, also, organization. They run hospitals. They do a lot of sort of social work in Egypt. So they are very, very influential.

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In the end, Barack Obama made a hugely important but unintended contribution to the democracy revolution in Egypt. Because the White House never found the voice to fully endorse the Tahrir Square revolution until it was over, the people now know one very powerful thing: they did this all by themselves. That is so important. One of the most powerful chants I heard in the square on Friday night was: ”The people made the regime step down.”

This sense of self-empowerment and authenticity – we did this for ourselves, by ourselves – is what makes Egypt’s democracy movement such a potential game-changer for the region. And in case other autocrats have not picked up on that, let me share my second favourite chant from Cairo’s streets after Hosni Mubarak resigned. It was directed at the dictator next door in Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, and it went like this: ”We’re not leaving Tahrir until Gaddafi leaves office.” Hello, Tripoli! Cairo calling.

This could get interesting – for all the region’s autocrats….

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Many Christian leaders believe that the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic political group banned in Egypt, will grow in political power with Mubarak’s ouster. The brotherhood maintains strong support among some Egyptians. Religious-freedom analysts believe the leaders of the brotherhood, famous for the slogan “Islam is the solution,” could very well usher in repression of all minority religious groups. Christians are Egypt’s largest minority, representing 6 to 10 percent of Egypt’s 85 million people. About 90 percent of all Christians in Egypt are Orthodox.

But while most Egyptian Muslims are Sunni, like the brotherhood, they are not as fundamentalist as it is. One Coptic Orthodox businessman based in Cairo told CT that he was surprised that Christians’ property was not targeted during the growing protests. “I thought that the first thing to be attacked [by protestors] would be the churches,” he said.

“It wasn’t like that. In the neighborhood of my parents, there are many mosques and churches. No single mosque has announced anything against us Christians. Very soon, a big change will happen. Egypt has been like someone sleeping. Now, wake up! Do something better.”

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What happened in Egypt yesterday will change not only this 80 million-strong nation; it will change politics throughout the Arab world. Not all the dominoes will fall. But many governments will now scramble to avoid the same conditions that engendered revolution. So they should. Democracy is in a lamentable state in the Middle East. Rulers routinely abuse rights, flout the public will and deny their people a future. They must learn that only good government can bring happiness and stability. Egypt has been both a warning and an inspiration.

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The fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak marks a historic shift in the Middle East, away from the power structure America has leaned on for the past three decades and toward a new one still being shaped by a demographic and technological wave that the U.S. and its allies haven’t learned to control.

America’s future standing in the region now depends heavily on whether Washington’s other friends, especially those in the Persian Gulf, are more adroit than Mr. Mubarak at getting ahead of that wave.

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One revolution ended Friday. Another may soon begin.

In a moment that may prove as decisive to the Middle East as the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, 18 days of protest hurtled Egypt once again to the forefront of politics in the Middle East. In the uprising’s ambition, young protesters, savvy with technology and more organized than their rulers, began to rewrite the formula that has underpinned an American-backed order: the nation in the service of a strongman.

The ecstatic moments of triumph in Tahrir Square seemed to wash away a lifetime of defeats and humiliations, invasions and occupations that, in the weeks before the revolution, had seemed to mark the bitterest time for both Egypt and the Arab world.

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Hosni Mubarak has stepped down as president of Egypt, after weeks of protest in Cairo and other cities

The news was greeted with a huge outburst of joy and celebration by thousands in Cairo’s Tahrir Square – the heart of the demonstrations.

Mr Mubarak ruled for 30 years, suppressing dissent and protest, and jailing opponents….

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The three-decade long rule of Hosni Mubarak over Egypt was crumbling last night. The old dictator, confronted by an unprecedented wave of popular protests and strikes, was not prepared to go without a struggle. First he tried to divide the protesters, announcing his intention to step down as president later in the year. When that failed to disperse the crowds, Mr Mubarak is believed to have sent state-sponsored thugs to attack the pro-democracy protesters in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

Mr Mubarak’s allies abroad tried their best to prop up the Egyptian strongman too. Frank Wisner, the veteran diplomat sent by Barack Obama to deal with the Egyptian regime, was arguing a week ago that Mr Mubarak “must stay in office”. We learned yesterday that Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah pressured the White House to support Mr Mubarak, even threatening to replace any financial aid to Egypt withdrawn by the US. The Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, praised the Egyptian autocrat as a “wise man”.

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Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak handed power to his vice president but retained his title, a half-measure that confused observers, angered opposition leaders and provoked an uproar from hundreds of thousands of protesters massed in the center of the country’s capital.

The move sets up another conflict with the opposition movement, which has called on supporters to gather for a huge protest Friday. Expectations that the president would resign had built through the day, and the immediate reaction to the speech was anger, with protesters chanting “Leave, leave.”

An Army officer using a loudspeaker tried to calm protesters. “Let’s save our energy for tomorrow,” a man screamed to the crowd. “Go home and sleep, because tomorrow will be the day of judgment.”

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Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak said in a national address Thursday evening that he will not step down until a new president is selected in elections scheduled for September. He added that some powers are being transferred to Egypt’s vice president.

Saying a peaceful transfer of power is underway, Mr. Mubarak refused to give in to demands of tens of thousands of anti-government protesters who took to the streets for a 17th straight day to demand his immediate resignation.

Demonstrators in Cairo’s main Tahrir Square jeered and chanted “get out” during the speech. They had earlier danced in expectation that Mubarak would resign.

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The Tahrir Square uprising “has nothing to do with left or right,” said Dina Shehata, a researcher at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “It is about young people rebelling against a regime that has stifled all channels for their upward mobility. They want to shape their own destiny, and they want social justice” from a system in which a few people have gotten fantastically rich, in giant villas, and everyone else has stagnated. Any ideological group that tries to hijack these young people today will lose.

One of the best insights into what is happening here is provided by a 2009 book called “Generation in Waiting,” edited by Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef, which examined how young people are coming of age in eight Arab countries. It contends that the great game that is unfolding in the Arab world today is not related to political Islam but is a “generational game” in which more than 100 million young Arabs are pressing against stifling economic and political structures that have stripped all their freedoms and given them in return one of the poorest education systems in the world, highest unemployment rates and biggest income gaps. China deprives its people of political rights, but at least it gives them a rising standard of living. Egypt deprived its people of political rights and gave them a declining standard of living.

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CHARLIE ROSE: I want to turn to one thing that I thought you wrote about really well, which is the sense of dignity that pervades the people that you have met. I’m quoting now from a man who said “Why would we trust him now to play it right? That’s the question the west hasn’t answered.”

Then you say “The deeper problem is more cultural than political. To accept the Mubarak or chaos argument is a form of disrespect to the civility and capacity of Tahrir Square. It’s an expression of western failure before the exploding Arab thirst for dignity and representative government. It reflects the old conditioning which sees in an Egyptian culture that was after all deep enough and realistic enough to accept peace with Israel no more than a disaster waiting to happen if the iron fist is removed.

Western leaders say events in the Arab world should spur Israelis and Palestinians to peace because they know how unstable the region is. Wrong,” you say. “These events are themselves the spur to the only
sustainable peace, one based on Arab self-respect and self-expression.”

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The US has called on the Egyptian government to immediately lift the country’s emergency laws, which have been in place for 30 years.

Vice-President Joe Biden made the call during a telephone conversation with his Egyptian counterpart Omar Suleiman.

It came after a day of renewed anti-government protests in Cairo and other Egyptian cities.

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The Tunisian uprising changed everything. We have reached a turning point: it is clear now that dictators can be peacefully overthrown! To do so takes courage, a mass movement, determination and hope, faith in God and/or in the future. Crushed by repression, the people have stood up to claim full human dignity. Their irrepressible right to be free.

The Tunisians blazed the trail. In Algeria and Mauritania, then in Yemen and Egypt women, men and young people of all backgrounds have taken to the streets to express their anger and frustration, their intense desire to see their respective regimes fall. Sparks are flashing everywhere; demands being drafted; protests have even occurred in Syria where the government has announced a series of reforms should the people begin to consider mass action.

In Egypt, tensions have been growing over the last two weeks. After thirty years of unshared power – having imposed a state of emergency after the assassination of Anwar al-Sadat in 1981 – Mubarak and his regime now face the people’s defiance of his authoritarianism and bloody repression. The police and paramilitary force have beaten, arrested, tortured and fired on the crowd; hundreds are dead, thousands injured.

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The morning bells of All Saints Church beckon worshipers a little later these days, and Mass is celebrated more frequently.

The schedule shift for the early service has come in response to the government-imposed overnight curfew. The extra services? Coptic Christians in Egypt’s second-largest city say they have a lot of reasons to pray amid the nation’s ongoing turmoil.

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…the [Muslim] Brotherhood, like everyone else, is evolving. It would be a serious error to believe that it has not sincerely wrestled with the seductive challenge of democracy, with the fact that the Egyptian faithful like the idea of voting for their leaders.

In 2007, members of the Brotherhood released, withdrew and unofficially re-released a political platform ”” the first ever for the organization ”” in which an outsider can see the Brothers’ philosophical struggle with the idea of parliamentary supremacy and the certainty that faithful Muslims may legislatively transgress Holy Law. The Brothers themselves didn’t know how much free rein to give to their compatriots ”” they, like everyone else, are moving in uncharted waters.
The Brotherhood is trying to come to terms with the idea of hurriya, “freedom.” In the past, for the Muslim devout, hurriya had denoted the freedom of a believer to worship God; for the Arab nationalist, the word was the battle cry against European imperialism. Today, in Egypt and elsewhere, hurriya cannot be understood without reference to free men and women voting. The Brothers are trying to figure out how to integrate two civilizations and thereby revive their own. This evolution isn’t pretty. But it is real.

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