Paul Trigili, an information technology professional in Las Vegas, is 65, has back problems and would like to retire at the end of the year. There’s just one thing standing in his way: his house.

Trigili bought his home three years ago for $350,000. At the time, he thought it was a good deal, because the home originally was priced at $450,000. Today, it’s valued at $184,000.

Trigili made a large down payment when he bought the home, so he doesn’t owe more on his mortgage than the home is worth. But his plans to sell his home and use the proceeds for retirement income have been placed on indefinite hold.

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Federal Reserve policy makers may start weighing additional steps to prop up the recovery after growth fell below 1 percent in the first half of this year and economists began cutting second-half growth forecasts.

“At a minimum, the FOMC will have a serious debate about the policy options — what they should do, and what they expect to get from it,” said Roberto Perli, a former associate director in the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. “Growth in the first half was dangerously close to zero,” said Perli, director of policy research at International Strategy & Investment Group.

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Scottsdale, Ariz. – On an empty desert lot covered with snake holes, cactus and scraggly brush lie the clearest clues to the demise of Marshall & Ilsley Corp., the once-great Wisconsin bank company brought down by its expansion into red-hot real estate markets at the worst possible time.

The lot once sold for $225,000, financed by an $180,000 M&I loan that went bad in 2008. Victor and Rita Lockwood recently bought the lot for $20,000 – they’re looking for a place to park a trailer if they default on their $586,000 M&I loan and lose their home across the road.

Two pieces of desert property, two loans that ultimately could cost M&I hundreds of thousands of dollars – and the same scenario has been playing out over and over, with no end in sight.

Read it all (still another from the long queue of should-have-already-been-posted material).

The worst U.S. recession since the 1930s was even deeper than previously estimated, reflecting bigger slumps in consumer spending and housing, according to revised figures.

The world’s largest economy shrank 4.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, compared with the 3.7 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Household spending fell 1.2 percent in 2009, twice as much as previously projected and the biggest decline since 1942.

“We do tend to get bigger revisions at turning points in the economy,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press conference this week. On the more positive side, “in the past, we’ve tended to undershoot the recovery” as well, he said.

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The nation’s Roman Catholic bishops are urging the GOP-led House to reject a cuts-only approach to the budget as Washington tries to avert an unprecedented government default on its multi-trillion-dollar debts.

“A just framework for future budgets cannot rely on disproportionate cuts in essential services to poor persons,” wrote Bishop Stephen Blaire of Stockton, Calif., and Bishop Howard Hubbard of Albany, N.Y., in a Tuesday (July 26) letter to House members.

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That’s why the posturing about whether and how Congress should increase the debt ceiling by Aug. 2 has been a hollow exercise. Failure to increase the borrowing limit would harm American prestige and the global financial system. But that’s nothing compared with the real threats to the U.S.’s long-term economic health, which will begin to strike with full force toward the end of this decade: Sharply rising per-capita health-care spending, coupled with the graying of the populace; a generation of workers turning into an outsize generation of beneficiaries. Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Michael J. Boskin, who was President George H.W. Bush’s chief economic adviser, says: “The word ”˜unsustainable’ doesn’t convey the problem enough, in my opinion.”

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More than 10,000 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans are homeless or in programs aimed at keeping them off the streets, a number that has doubled three times since 2006, according to figures released by the Department of Veterans Affairs.

The rise comes at a time when the total number of homeless veterans has declined from a peak of about 400,000 in 2004 to 135,000 today.

“We’re seeing more and more (Iraq and Afghanistan veterans),” says Richard Thomas, a Volunteers of America case manager at a shelter in Los Angeles. “It’s just a bad time for them to return now and get out of the military.”

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There is great disagreement in Washington over the meaning of last year’s midterm elections, but it’s almost certain that most Americans did not vote for the kind of paralysis that now surrounds the negotiations over the terms of raising the debt ceiling.

Americans voted for, or got, divided government because the public doesn’t fully trust either party with the reins of power. That means the only way out of this problem is through compromise, or what one administration official called “bipartisanship by necessity,” not by choice.

Up until now, enough lawmakers haven’t been ready to accept that in order for a deal to be struck. So the clock ticks.

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This medicine is very hard for Americans to swallow, but the truth is, we can’t have it both ways. We want an arms-length relationship with the government in good times. In bad times, the cries go out to “do something,” even if it’s pay us to do nothing. We want a free-market economy during expansions, a nanny state in periods of recession. Privatized profits during the boom, socialized losses during the bust.

–Caroline Baum, in a Bloomberg News piece this week

Put on asbestos mittens and pick up “Reckless Endangerment,” the scalding new book by Gretchen Morgenson, a New York Times columnist, and Joshua Rosner, a housing finance expert. They will introduce you to James A. Johnson, an emblem of the administrative state that liberals admire.

The book’s subtitle could be: “Cry ”˜Compassion’ and Let Slip the Dogs of Cupidity.” Or: “How James Johnson and Others (Mostly Democrats) Made the Great Recession.” The book is another cautionary tale about government’s terrifying self-confidence. It is, the authors say, “a story of what happens when Washington decides, in its infinite wisdom, that every living, breathing citizen should own a home.”

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Half of those surveyed say the market’s continuing downward spiral has affected their long-term plans. One in five people say the crisis has prevented them from moving to another city or taking a different job. Nearly one-quarter of homeowners say their home is now worth less than what they owe on their mortgage, a condition known as being underwater. Families in this predicament are much more prone to foreclosure if they suffer job losses or other setbacks.

Over all, people are bleaker about the economic outlook than those surveyed in October. While most still think the current downturn is temporary, those saying it is permanent rose to 39 percent, up from 28 percent.

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This came in this morning from a friend who lives in Washington:

WA state is so good. I got my new property tax assessment yd, house and land dropped 8.3% but property will will actually be $194.67 higher each 6 months. ggggg what a deal

The nation’s banks are holding a much higher rate of defaulted mortgages on their books than mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to a report released Wednesday by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates national banks.

The report said that some 19.7% of mortgages held in banks’ portfolios were delinquent at the end of March. By contrast, nearly 6.8% of mortgages backed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nonperforming, and 11.4% of all mortgages that are serviced by banks.

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One disturbing fact from the McKinsey report is this: The number of new businesses, a traditional source of jobs, was down 23 percent in 2010 from 2007; the level was the lowest since 1983, when America had about 75 million fewer people. Large corporations are standoffish. They have about $2 trillion of cash and securities on their balance sheets, which could be used for hiring and investing in new products. Meanwhile, the latest University of Michigan Survey of Consumers reports that “record numbers ”¦ thought that their incomes would lag inflation over the next five years.” Note: They didn’t expect high inflation so much as low income growth.

It’s not that economics achieved nothing. The emergency measures thrown at the crisis in many countries ”” exceptionally low interest rates, “stimulus” programs of extra spending and tax cuts ”” probably averted another Depression. But it’s also true that there’s now no consensus among economists as to how to strengthen the recovery.

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Home values in Snohomish County continued a prolonged slide this year, according to assessment notices that should arrive soon.

Assessment notices being mailed this week show a dip of nearly 13 percent in value for residential properties. That’s the largest falloff since 2008, when housing declines began to show up in county assessments….

You might think then that the taxes on real estate would therefore be less. You would be wrong–they could be, but they may not be. Why?

Because of Washington’s budget-based taxing system, taxes can go up even when property values decline.

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There may be $2 trillion sitting on the balance sheets of American corporations globally, but firms show no signs of wanting to spend it in order to hire workers at home, however much Washington might hope they will. Meanwhile, the average American is feeling poorer by the week. “If one looks at unemployment and housing, it’s clear that for all practical purposes, we have yet to fully get out of recession,” says Harvard economist Ken Rogoff, summing up what everyone who doesn’t live inside the Beltway Bubble is thinking. While the White House’s official 2011 growth estimate, locked in before Japan and the oil shock, is still 3.1%, most economic seers are betting on 2.6%. That’s not nearly enough to propel us out of an unemployment crisis that threatens to create a lost generation of workers who can’t find good jobs and may never find them. Welcome to the 2% economy.

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Estimates of monthly GDP indicate that the only growth in the first quarter of 2011 was from February to March. After a temporary rise in March, the economy began sliding again in April, with declines in real wages, in durable-goods orders and manufacturing production, in existing home sales, and in real per-capita disposable incomes. It is not surprising that the index of leading indicators fell in April, only the second decline since it began to rise in the spring of 2009.

The data for May are beginning to arrive and are even worse than April’s. They are marked by a collapse in payroll-employment gains; a higher unemployment rate; manufacturers’ reports of slower orders and production; weak chain-store sales; and a sharp drop in consumer confidence.

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Already, in nine major cities tracked by Rosealea Yao, an analyst at market-research firm Dragonomics, real-estate prices fell 4.9% in April from a year earlier. Last year, prices in those nine cities rose 21.5%; in 2009, the increase was about 10%, as China started to recover from the global economic crisis, with much steeper increases toward the end of that year.

A downturn in property and apartment prices would harm Chinese industry and investment, and crimp consumer spending. China is a “housing-led economy,” says UBS economist Jonathan Anderson, who estimates that property construction alone accounted for 13% of gross domestic product in 2010, twice the share of the 1990s.

While China’s anticipated growth is still well above that of other large economies, any reduction could have deep consequences. The global economy is now even more dependent on China for demand for anything from commodities to luxury goods, given the tepid recovery in the U.S. and Europe’s continuing sovereign-debt problems.

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Photos of St George’s Church, Linwood, Christchurch–take a look.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the real cost of the federal government guaranteeing the business of failed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is $317 billion — not the $130 billion normally claimed by the Obama administration.

In a report delivered to the House Budget Committee on June 2, the CBO said a “fair value” accounting of guaranteeing the two defunct mortgage companies ”“ known as Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) ”“ was more than twice as high as the Office of Management and Budget had accounted for.

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Economists have found themselves repeatedly making excuses. First it was the snowstorms. Then it was Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster which crimped the supply of parts to car assembly plants in America. Then, as the snow melted, floods ravaged Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, and tornadoes battered Alabama and Missouri. America has suffered five incidents of extreme weather this year, each inflicting at least $1 billion in damage.

The most important special factor has been petrol. Prices jumped from $3 per gallon at the end of December to $3.90 in early May. That has siphoned off much of the purchasing power that consumers should have extracted from December’s tax agreement and subsequent gains in employment. Total consumer spending rose at just a 6.7% annual rate in the three months to the end of April, but most of that increase was eaten up by inflation. Real spending grew by a paltry 2.2%.

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Squeezed on both sides by stagnant wages and rising prices, consumers believe the chances of bringing home more money one year from now are at their lowest in 25 years, according to analysis of survey data by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s economist Jan Hatzius looked at the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters poll, which asks consumers whether they believe their family income will rise more than inflation in the next 12 months. Hatzius applied a six-month moving average to smooth out the data and found that wage pessimism is at its lowest in more than two decades.

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The Obama Administration and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve have bet on a recovery based on reflating asset prices with easy money, federal spending and temporary stimulus programs. Part of that bet was reflating the housing bubble.

The results are what we now see: higher stock prices for Americans lucky enough to own shares, but 2% growth and mediocre job creation, a housing recession stretching well into its fourth year, and soaring commodity prices that reduce real income growth.

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Almost 4 million homes have been lost to foreclosures the past five years, turning many former owner-occupied homes into rentals.

The shift to rental housing is potentially long-lasting and portends changes for neighborhood stability and how people build wealth, economists say.

“The changes are big but glacial,” says Mark Zandi, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

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Home prices have sunk to 2002 levels, effectively wiping out almost a decade’s worth of home equity across the U.S. and imperiling the fragile economic recovery as Americans confront the sinking value of their biggest investment.

A closely watched home-price index released Tuesday showed that prices nationwide fell 4.2% in the first quarter after declining 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Home prices, which slid in March to their lowest level since the start of the 2006-2009 downturn, have tumbled for eight straight months, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.

“Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. The report signals “a double dip in home prices across much of the nation,” he said.

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Is history repeating itself?

Recent data suggest the current economic recovery is both sluggish and slowing, with unemployment stubbornly high.

But that’s entirely consistent with the pattern of most global and country-specific financial crises.

A detailed study of three global contractions and 15 country-specific financial crises has found GDP growth, unemployment and housing prices all suffered for a decade or more.

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BOB FAW, correspondent: Question: What do this longtime alcoholic, this up and coming project manager, this receptionist who was homeless, and Noah Haynes, who just turned one, have in common? Answer: The chance at a better life because of this former corporate high-flyer and mother of four.

NANCY MURRAY (Builders of Hope): We’re building houses. We’re rescuing houses that are slated for demolition, rebuilding them and making them available and affordable to families who otherwise would be living in pretty substandard conditions….

Read or watch it all.

“A foreclosure walk away is not good for anyone ”” the neighborhood, the consumer, the investor. The more that we see this activity, the more we will see a downward cycle in the housing market,” [Joanne] Gaskin said.

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As recession-racked cities struggle to balance their budgets with everything short of feeling behind sofa cushions for loose change, a growing number are seeking more money ”” just don’t use the word taxes ”” from nonprofit institutions that occupy valuable land but by law do not pay property taxes.

Boston has been sending letters to its largest nonprofit institutions this year, telling them the value of their land and asking them to begin making annual payments that would eventually rise to a quarter of what they would owe if they paid property taxes. Mayor-elect Rahm Emanuel of Chicago wants the city to begin charging water fees to nonprofits, which have been spared them in the past. And the mayor of Providence, R.I., Angel Taveras, cited Boston’s example this month when he called on nonprofits to pay more money to the city.
“Every citizen, every city worker, every taxpayer, every business and every organization ”” including tax-exempt institutions ”” must share part of the burden of saving our city,” Mr. Taveras said in his budget address. He proposed closing Providence’s $109 million budget gap by shutting schools, laying off workers, cutting the Police and Fire Department budgets and raising taxes on homeowners as well as seeking larger payments from the city’s prestigious universities and other nonprofit institutions.

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If you’re a 20-something or even younger, your economic future is at best clouded. Your taxes will almost certainly be higher than today’s; your public services (schools, police, sanitation, defense, scientific research) will almost certainly be lower. Paying for old people, covering rising health costs, repairing dilapidated roads and servicing government pensions and the huge federal debt will squeeze take-home pay. Is there any hope for economic gains?

Well, yes ”” and from a surprising source. Housing. Say what?…

housing’s troubles may have a silver lining. If you’re a homeowner, the steep fall in prices is calamitous. But if you’re a future buyer, it’s a godsend. What we’re seeing is a massive wealth transfer from today’s older homeowners to tomorrow’s younger homeowners.

Read it all.