The leaders of more than half of Africa’s nations gathered this week in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s sprawling seaside metropolis, to commit to the biggest burst of spending on electric-power generation in Africa’s history.

The World Bank, African Development Bank and others are pledging at least $35 billion to expand electricity across a continent where more than a half-billion people still don’t have it. About half of the money will go toward solar “minigrids” that serve individual communities. The loans will come at below-market interest rates, a crucial stipulation as global lenders usually charge much higher rates in Africa, citing higher risks.

In an interview, Ajay Banga, the president of the World Bank, cast the initiative in sweeping terms where economic development met societal stability and basic human rights. “Without electricity, we can’t get jobs, health care, skills,” he said. The success of electrification, he said, is “foundational to everything.”

The summit’s promise is to get half of Africa’s 600 million unelectrified people powered up in just six years. That averages out to five million people a month. Mr. Banga said the World Bank, on its own, had not yet even passed the one-million-a-month mark.

Read it all.

Expecting to electrify 300 million Africans by 2030, Mission 300 is meeting in Tanzania’s capital, Dar es Salaam.

They hope to illuminate NASA’s very dim nighttime image of Africa.

Today's econlife blog: https://t.co/M63ERMSlJ3#econlife pic.twitter.com/CqnJyBJZvZ

— econlife.com (@Econlife) January 28, 2025

The market reaction, when it came, was brutal. On January 27th, as investors realised just how good DeepSeek’s “v3” and “R1” models were, they wiped around a trillion dollars off the market capitalisation of America’s listed tech firms. Nvidia, a chipmaker and the chief shovel-seller of the artificial-intelligence (AI) gold rush, saw its value fall by $600bn. Yet even if the Chinese model-maker’s new releases rattled investors in a handful of firms, they should be a cause for optimism for the world at large. DeepSeek shows how competition and innovation will make ai cheaper and therefore more useful.

DeepSeek’s models are practically as good as those made by Google and OpenAI—and have been produced at a fraction of the cost. Barred by American export controls from using cutting-edge chips, the Chinese firm undertook an efficiency drive, even reprogramming the chips it used to train the model to eke out every drop of power. The cost of building an AI model that can stand toe-to-toe with the best has plummeted. Within days, DeepSeek’s chatbot was the most downloaded app on the iPhone.

The contrast with America’s approach could not be starker. Sam Altman, the boss of OpenAI, has spent years telling investors—and America’s new president—that vast sums of money and computing power are needed to stay at the forefront of AI. Investors have accordingly been betting that a handful of firms stand to reap vast monopoly-like rents. Yet if fast followers such as DeepSeek can eat away at that lead for a fraction of the cost, then those profits are at risk.

Read it all.

"However, the real winners will be consumers. For AI to transform society, it needs to be cheap, ubiquitous and out of the control of any one country or company. DeepSeek’s success suggests that such a world is imaginable."https://t.co/8aZ4eM5PV5 #USChina #Geoeconomics #地経学

— Ken Doi土居 (@kitakazethomas) January 30, 2025

Almost overnight, DeepSeek has upended many of the assumptions inside Silicon Valley about the economics of building AI, as well as the best technical methods for developing the technology and the extent of the US lead over competitors in China. For much of the past two-plus years since ChatGPT kicked off the global AI frenzy, the industry has bet that the path to better AI depends largely on spending heavily on more advanced chips from companies like Nvidia Corp. and increasingly massive data centers to house them.

US President Donald Trump welcomed the development as “good, because you don’t have to spend as much money.” Industry leader Nvidia, whose shares took a huge hit from DeepSeek’s debut, also lauded it as an “excellent AI advancement” in a statement on Monday.

The market fallout was staggering. Hype over DeepSeek’s feat drove a nearly $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks on Monday as investors questioned the spending plans of some of America’s biggest companies. The share plunge in AI chipmaker Nvidia alone erased roughly $589 billion in market value, the biggest wipeout in US stock-market history.

Meanwhile, in DC, lawmakers are left to figure out the best route to beat back China’s progress on a technology some see as crucial to its military and economy, given the Biden administration’s chip export curbs were not enough. David Sacks, President Donald Trump’s crypto and AI czar, said DeepSeek shows the global AI race will be very competitive — while blaming the Biden administration for regulation that “hamstrung” AI development.

Further complicating matters, the renewed uncertainty over large AI investments comes just days after Trump championed a $100 billion joint venture from OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp. and Oracle Corp. to boost US competitiveness by investing in data centers and other physical infrastructure. Now, there are new questions about the rationale for stratospheric AI budgets.

Read it all.

The censorship part here is eerie. Had a physical reaction while reading that.

Bloomberg: DeepSeek Challenges Everyone’s Assumptions About AI Costs https://t.co/8ewlGlxrkD pic.twitter.com/0R1ns25aoM

— Emily Binder (@emilybinder) January 28, 2025

Q1: What is the status of global agrobiodiversity?

A1: Today, biodiversity is being lost faster than at any time on record. Since the turn of the twentieth century, the average abundance of terrestrial native species has declined by at least 20 percent across most ecosystems around the world, while the number of crop varieties grown on farms has fallen by more than 90 percent over the last 100 years. Paradoxically, it is the agrifood system itself that is the primary driver of the ecological disruption and degradation imperiling agrobiodiversity around the world.

The environmental impacts of modern food production are myriad. About half of all habitable land on Earth is used for agriculture, while agricultural practices and other human activities have degraded up to 40 percent of the world’s land. Some industrial agriculture has led to the overexploitation of resources that drives habitat loss, the decline in the number of crop species and erosion of crop genetic diversity, and the introduction of invasive species and pollutants—all of which disrupt fragile ecosystems.

In this context, agriculture faces the opposing challenges of increasing food production to meet the needs of a growing global population, while reducing its ecological footprint to ensure that natural resources required for productive agriculture are sustained. In the absence of policies that safeguard agrobiodiversity, efforts to meet food demands threaten to erode the foundation of food production itself.

Read it all.

Agriculture is increasingly strained by growing food demand, global conflict, and the loss of its most foundational resource, agrobiodiversity. This loss threatens not just food security, but global security writ large.

Learn more from @CSISFoodWater: https://t.co/HVUCReVKDW

— CSIS (@CSIS) January 22, 2025

Humanity is “on the verge” of having AI agents that can complete tasks in the real world, OpenAI product chief Kevin Weil told Axios’ Ina Fried in Davos Tuesday.

Why it matters: Weil’s prediction comes days after Axios reported that a major AI company was close to announcing a breakthrough regarding the creation of Ph.D.-level AI super-agents capable of completing complex tasks.

What he’s saying: “I think 2025 is the year that we go from ChatGPT being this super smart thing that can answer any question you ask to ChatGPT doing things in the real world for you,” Weil told Axios.

• The advanced reasoning skills of new AI models, and improved ability to be multimodal and engage with humans, will be key to this ability, Weil said.
• He predicted that likely as soon as this year, AI agents will be able to do tasks like filling out forms or making restaurant reservations.

Read it all.

OpenAI product chief says

world is "on the verge" of AI agents https://t.co/PwXP5TX9Vp @ivanas26 @axios pic.twitter.com/VgwPqAg1s6

— Spiros Margaris (@SpirosMargaris) January 22, 2025

Homeowners in places most exposed to climate disasters are increasingly giving up on paying their insurance premiums, leaving them exposed to financial ruin, according to sweeping new government data.

The numbers show how climate change is eroding the underpinnings of American life by making home insurance costlier and harder to hang on to, even as wildfires, hurricanes and other calamities increasingly threaten what is, for many people, their most valuable asset.

“Homeowners’ insurance is where many Americans are now feeling the financial effect of climate change directly, in their pocketbook,” said Ethan Zindler, climate counselor at the Treasury Department. “Nature doesn’t really care whether people are living in a blue state or a red state or another state, or whether you do or don’t believe in climate change.”

The rising cancellation rates are part of a broader trend captured by the Treasury Department, which analyzed information for 246 million insurance policies issued by 330 insurers nationwide from 2018 through 2022. The result is the most comprehensive look yet at the effect of climate change on the American home insurance market.

Read it all.

More Americans, Risking Ruin, Drop Their Home Insurance https://t.co/kZjPynDbIU

— Heather Croshaw (@HeatherCroshaw) January 17, 2025

As blazes raged across Los Angeles, Berkeley County officials were wrapping up a new plan that could help local residents and leaders deal with wildfires.

They might need it soon.

Berkeley is simultaneously one of the fastest-growing and most fire-susceptible counties in the state — a vulnerability that could grow in the near future as climate change spurs more severe droughts and drier conditions.

“Us folks in the wildland business, we’ve been seeing climate change coming for a long time,” said Andy Johnson, the S.C. Forestry Commission’s fire prevention coordinator for the Coastal Plain.

Read it all.

Berkeley County is one of the fastest-growing areas in SC, and one of the most wildfire-prone https://t.co/5WpzpEkPPv

— The Post and Courier (@postandcourier) January 13, 2025

Many of the world’s richest economies will need to at least double productivity growth to maintain historical improvements in living standards amid sharp falls in their birth rates.

A McKinsey report investigating the economic impact of declines in birth rates found that the UK, Germany, Japan and the US would all have to see productivity rise at double the pace seen over the past decade to maintain the same growth in living standards witnessed since the 1990s.

The consultancy’s report, published on Wednesday, showed that to match GDP per capita growth between 1997 and 2023, productivity growth in France and Italy would need to triple over the coming three decades. In Spain, it would need to rise fourfold between now and 2050.

The report highlights the stark impact of declining birth rates on the world’s most prosperous economies, leaving them vulnerable to a shrinking proportion of the population of working age.

Read it all.

"Many of the world’s richest economies will need to at least double productivity growth to maintain historical improvements in living standards amid sharp falls in their birth rates."

Falling Birth Rates Raise Prospect of Sharp Decline in Living Standards @FT pic.twitter.com/18gmETDuDS

— James Pethokoukis ️ (@JimPethokoukis) January 15, 2025

According to Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase and king of Wall Street, bankers were elated upon Donald Trump’s election victory. Many chafed under Joe Biden’s presidency, as mergers and bank fees faced additional scrutiny, and new capital-market rules came thick and fast. Now, with the inauguration of Mr Trump imminent, American financiers will discover just how much cause they have for celebration.

The industry will certainly experience an abrupt change in how it is overseen. America’s regulatory agencies will take a permissive approach in banking and beyond, with new priorities when enforcing securities laws. Crypto is about to go truly mainstream. And looser rules could enable the consolidation of America’s banking system, home to a vast number of small and mid-sized lenders. The only danger, from Wall Street’s perspective, is that the Trump team’s MAGA instincts and chaotic approach prevent a deregulatory boom.

Read it all.

My first piece in the new gig. Will Trump unleash Wall Street?

Banks and PE have good reason to be excited. But the sector that has by *far* the most to gain is crypto, which is about to be treated as part of mainstream finance for the first time.https://t.co/QFUDd1YeUc

— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) January 15, 2025

As countries around the world continue to pump planet-warming pollution into the skies, driving global temperatures to record levels, the financial world is racing to fund the emerging field of carbon dioxide removal, seeking both an environmental miracle and a financial windfall.

The technology, which did not exist until a few years ago, is still unproven at scale. Yet, it has a uniquely alluring appeal. Stripping away some of the carbon dioxide that is heating up the world makes intuitive sense. And with a small but growing number of companies willing to pay for it, investors are jockeying to be first movers in what they believe will inevitably be a big industry that is necessary to help fight global warming.

Companies working on ways to pull carbon dioxide from the air have raised more than $5 billion since 2018, according to the investment bank Jefferies. Before that, there were almost no such investments.

“It’s the single greatest opportunity I’ve seen in 20 years of doing venture capital,” said Damien Steel, the chief executive of Canada-based Deep Sky, which has raised more than $50 million to develop carbon dioxide removal projects. “The tailwinds behind the industry are greater than most industries I’ve ever looked at.”

Read it all.

It's a strategy that should be pursued but, it can't have any major impact anytime soon. “We need to obey the first law of holes,” …“When you’re in one, stop digging.”The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky https://t.co/Lwlh8Zfeir

— Prof. Peter Doherty (@ProfPCDoherty) December 23, 2024

 So just how much have healthcare costs and spending been going up?

The short answer: a lot. National healthcare spending increased 7.5% year over year in 2023 to $4.867 trillion, or $14,570 per person, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. 

Total spending on healthcare goods and services, everything from prescription drugs to back surgeries, accounted for 17.6% of gross domestic product, a measure of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy.

The 7.5% rise represented a much faster pace of growth than the 4.6% increase in 2022. It came as pandemic federal funding for the healthcare sector expired and private health insurance enrollment increased. More people with insurance led to increased demand for medical procedures, and spending on hospital care grew at the fastest pace since 1990. Spending on drugs also rose, including for medications to treat diabetes and obesity.  

Read it all.

Why Are Americans Paying So Much More for Healthcare Than They Used To? – U.S. #healthcare spending rose 7.5% to nearly $5 trillion last year https://t.co/P4NGBmEb8g pic.twitter.com/S86iWDSA4g

— Sid Shah (@Sid_Healthcare) December 20, 2024

As Mark Moran was facing another 90-hour week as an investment-banking intern at Credit Suisse in New York, he knew he needed help to survive the rest of the summer. His colleagues gave him a tip: Visit a Wall Street health clinic and tell the staff he had trouble focusing.

Ahead of his first appointment, he filled out a five-minute questionnaire. One of the questions asked if he had trouble staying organized, another, if he procrastinated. He then met with a clinician who said his answers suggested he had attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. He left with a prescription for Adderall.

No matter that a family member, a psychologist, didn’t think Moran had ADHD. He found that when he took Adderall, he could keep working for hours, and was able to actually be interested in some of the mundane tasks required of a young investment banker, such as aligning corporate logos on a PowerPoint or formatting cells in Microsoft Excel. 

He also wanted to show his bosses he was a hard worker and eventually secure a lucrative full-time job offer after finishing graduate school.

Read it all.

Many Wall Street bankers use Adderall and Vyvanse as tools to plow through long hours of tedious work amid high-pressure competition. https://t.co/YxyBTdBKzf via @WSJ

— WSJ Health (@WSJhealth) December 16, 2024

Treasury 10-year yields may climb to 6% for the first time in more than two decades as US fiscal woes worsen and Donald Trump’s policies help keep inflation elevated, according to T. Rowe Price.

The benchmark yield may first reach 5% in the first quarter of 2025 before potentially climbing further, Arif Husain, chief investment officer of fixed-income, wrote in a report. Husain is doubling down on calls for higher yields, citing persistent US budget deficits as Trump cuts taxes during his second presidency, as well as potential tariffs and immigration policies that would sustain price pressures.

“Is a 6% 10‑year Treasury yield possible? Why not? But we can consider that when we move through 5%,” wrote Husain, who helps the money manager oversee $187 billion. “The transition period in US politics is an opportunity to position for increasing longer‑term Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve.”

Read it all (registration or subscription).

10-Year Treasury Yield may soar to 6%, warns T. Rowe Price. The last time this happened? 2000.

Probably Fine pic.twitter.com/NF2XJj27uS

— Barchart (@Barchart) December 17, 2024

I have already, on a previous occasion, spoken at some length on the subject of Work and Vocation. What I urged then was a thoroughgoing revolution in our whole attitude to work. I asked that it should be looked upon, not as a necessary drudgery to be undergone for the purpose of making money, but as a way of life in which the nature of man should find its proper exercise and delight and so fulfill itself to the glory of God. That it should, in fact, be thought of as a creative activity undertaken for the love of the work itself; and that man, made in God’s image, should make things, as God makes them, for the sake of doing well a thing that is well worth doing.

It may well seem to you – as it does to some of my acquaintances – that I have a sort of obsession about this business of the right attitude to work. But I do insist upon it, because it seems to me that what becomes of civilization after this war is going to depend enormously on our being able to effect this revolution in our ideas about work. Unless we do change our whole way of thought about work, I do not think we shall ever escape from the appalling squirrel cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries or so, the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice.

A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste, and such a society is a house built upon sand….

Read it all.

All that was left of the garage was a heap of charred & smouldering beams. In the driving seat of the burnt-out car were the remains of a body. Listen to our vintage collection of crime and detection stories featuring Lord Peter Wimsey by Dorothy L. Sayers, who died #OTD 1957. pic.twitter.com/JYRS8NdIQJ

— Friends of WHLibrary (@FoWHLNW6) December 17, 2024

Katherine Lee Bates’ poem, “America The Beautiful,” is best known for being set to music and popularly performed at public sporting events in the United States. In it, she celebrates the grandeur of American geography and resources: “And crownthy good with brotherhood / From sea to shining sea.”

Two church parishes in the Anglican Church in North America, located in port cities on opposite coasts, richly blessed with the bounty of natural resources like salmon and lobster, have received unexpected blessings this past year in the form of church buildings and property.

Anglican churches in Portland, Oregon and Portland, Maine, 3200 miles apart on each coast of the United States, have both received, in the same year, church buildings and property of significant value! Of course, the physical properties God has blessed these two parishes with are the fruits of God at work
in unexpected ways in their respective communities.

Read it all (page 10 ff.).

Rise Church in Portland, Maine is an Anglican church drawn from three congregations: what was formerly the Church of the Holy Spirit, a Sudanese church, and the newer, Rise Church. Watch a short video here: https://t.co/9k86nfr7bW Read more about it here: https://t.co/luttGJvO7L

— ACNA (@The_ACNA) December 12, 2024

The US bid to lead the world in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing is facing a critical hurdle: a shortage of development-ready industrial sites.

Nearly two-thirds of the people involved in securing US industrial sites cited their scarcity as the top factor impeding new projects, in a 2024 survey by the Site Selector’s Guild. And 87 per cent of respondents said resource shortages — including a lack of land, labour and utilities — had affected or compromised project timelines.

“It’s absolutely crazy,” says Josh Bays, a principal at Site Selection Group, which helps companies find US locations. “Most of the low-hanging fruit’s been picked over.” 

Read it all.

US aim to lead on AI threatened by land shortage via @FT
https://t.co/I9nJTyJXnT

— Amb Antonio Garza (@aogarza) December 12, 2024

In a glass-walled conference room in San Francisco, Newton Cheng clicked a button on his laptop and launched a thousand copies of an artificial intelligence program, each with specific instructions: Hack into a computer or website to steal data.

“It’s looking at the source code,” Cheng said as he examined one of the copies in action. “It’s trying to figure out, where’s the vulnerability? How can we take advantage of it?” Within minutes, the AI said the hack was successful. 

“Our approach worked perfectly,” it reported back.

Cheng works for Anthropic, one of the biggest AI startups in Silicon Valley, where he’s in charge of cybersecurity testing for what’s called the Frontier Red Team. The hacking attempts—conducted on simulated targets—were among thousands of safety tests, or “evals,” the team ran in October to find out just how good Anthropic’s latest AI model is at doing very dangerous things.

The release of ChatGPT two years ago set off fears that AI could soon be capable of surpassing human intellect—and with that capability comes the potential to cause superhuman harm. Could terrorists use an AI model to learn how to build a bioweapon that kills a million people? Could hackers use it to run millions of simultaneous cyberattacks? Could the AI reprogram and even reproduce itself?

Read it all.

Meet the "Frontier Red Team" at Anthropic, trying to push their latest AI models to do catastrophic things — in order to stop them before it's too late: https://t.co/HBqGx58Vfd via @WSJ

— Sam Schechner (@samschech) December 11, 2024

One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey.

Some 34% of respondents said they are stockpiling items because they are “fearful or uncertain about the future,” according to a December report from CreditCards.com, which publishes information on credit cards and financial literacy. The organization in late November surveyed 2,000 US residents.

Overall, the majority of respondents said they would use credit cards for some or most of their purchases this holiday season, with three in 10 planning to go into or take on additional debt.

Read it all.

One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey. https://t.co/I6pBDNFuKH

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 6, 2024

WSJ When Muhammad Imtiaz received an electricity bill of over $120 last summer, he panicked. The bill, for June and July, was all he earns in a month of ferrying passengers on his motorbike in the scrappy suburbs outside Pakistan’s capital Islamabad.

In his two-room home, where he lives with his wife and four children, he only has a fridge and lights. He runs two fans in the summer months when heat can exceed 110 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Should I give my rent, pay the electricity bill, or buy food for my children?” said Imtiaz, who has racked up $3,000 in debt. His family has one meal a day: watered-down lentils with flatbread. A decade ago, Pakistan, cripplingly short of power, turned to Beijing to build more than a dozen coal, solar and hydroelectric power plants as part of China’s huge infrastructure push in the country.

Now a series of policy mistakes by Islamabad means that Pakistan has enough electricity and more—but, due to the huge debt owed to China, few can afford it. The crisis is overwhelming Pakistan’s fragile economy, throwing millions of households into misery, shredding government finances and shutting down industry.

Read it all.

Pakistan’s Reliance on Chinese-Built Power Plants Is Strangling Its Economy—Pakistan turned to Beijing to solve a crippling energy shortage. Now, crushed under debt and sky-high energy prices, its economy is diving.@SaeedShah https://t.co/fVY63hSYHmhttps://t.co/fVY63hSYHm

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) December 4, 2024

Record numbers of US executives are selling shares in their companies, as corporate insiders from Goldman Sachs to Tesla and even Donald Trump’s own media group cash in on the stock market surge that has followed his election victory.

The rate of so-called insider sales has hit a record high for any quarter in two decades, according to VerityData. The sales, by executives at companies in the Wilshire 5000 index, include one-off profit-taking transactions as well as regular sales triggered by executives’ automatic trading plans. The Wilshire 5000 is one of the broadest indices of US companies.

While insider selling is routine — especially as the stock market was already breaking records before Trump’s win — the surge following November 5 underscores how US executives are already profiting personally from his return before he re-enters the White House. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5 per cent the day after the election, its best day in more than two years. The S&P 500 is up more than 24 per cent this year.

Insider selling versus buying at financial institutions was last this high in November 2016 — the first time Trump was elected president. Selling among officials at industrial goods companies has hit the highest level since 2017.

Read it all.

In case you missed it: Corporate insiders cash in on post-election US stock market surge. Insider sales reach an all-time high as executives from Goldman Sachs to Tesla lock in equity gains. Even Donald Trump’s own media group cash in on the stock market surge that has followed… pic.twitter.com/ZMSN3HOYtl

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 24, 2024

Art Cashin, UBS’ director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange and a man The Washington Post called “Wall Street’s version of Walter Cronkite,” has died. He was 83 and had been a regular on CNBC for more than 25 years.

In the intensely competitive and often vicious world of stock market commentary, Cashin was that rarest of creatures: a man respected by all, bulls and bears, liberals and conservatives alike. He seemed to have almost no enemies.

He was a great drinker and raconteur, a teller of stories.

For decades, he assembled a group of like-minded friends every day after trading halted, first at the bar at the NYSE luncheon club, then across the street at Bobby Van’s Steakhouse, where the group came to be known as the “Friends of Fermentation.” His drink was Dewar’s, always on the rocks.

Read it all.

Art Cashin, @NYSE fixture for decades, dies at age 83. In the intensely competitive world of stock market commentary, he was that rarest of all creatures: a man respected by all. He was a great drinker and a great teller of stories, and a great friend. https://t.co/I9aKn0QnL8

— Bob Pisani (@BobPisani) December 2, 2024

Scott Bessent spent the past 40 years studying economic history. Now, as Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Treasury Department, he has the chance to make his mark on it.

As a hedge-fund manager, first at George Soros’s firm and later at his own, Bessent specialized in macroinvesting, or analyzing geopolitical situations and economic data to wager on big-picture market moves. He generated billions of dollars in profits betting on and against currencies, interest rates, stocks and other asset classes around the world.

He was motivated to step out from behind his desk and get involved with Trump’s campaign in part because of a view that time is running out for the U.S. economy to grow its way out of excessive budget deficits and indebtedness.

Read it all.

Scott Bessent Sees a Coming ‘Global Economic Reordering.’ He Wants to Be Part of It. ⁦@WSJ⁩ https://t.co/qkvP5PVnVG

— Jennifer Ablan (@jennablan) November 25, 2024

As if lawmakers needed any other reasons to take America’s fiscal health seriously, the gross national debt of the United States has now officially reached $36 trillion. We started 2024 by crossing the $34 trillion threshold, added another trillion during the summer, and now we’re heading into the holidays with yet another trillion. Government borrowing is becoming as certain as the changing of the seasons these days.

It’s often said that the more times you say a word over and over, the more it starts to lose its meaning. With so many trillion-dollar debt milestones in recent years, it’s easy to forget that each of them has real-world consequences.

But rising debt poses serious domestic and geopolitical risks: it slows our economy, threatens higher inflation and interest rates, and squeezes our budget through higher interest rates. And it hampers our ability to be flexible in responding to recessions and disasters at home and foreign crises abroad.

And the future trajectory looks bleak as well.

Read it all.

Federal debt has officially breached $36 trillion, as projected 4 days ago, w/ Treasury borrowing $61 billion yesterday; we're in serious trouble and our nation's finances are falling apart… https://t.co/iekNG1US1W pic.twitter.com/zPzJJlBYGC

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) November 22, 2024

A colation of Christian organisations has written an open letter to high-street banks in the UK, calling on them to stop financing new fossil-fuel extraction or risk losing their business.

The letter, published on Tuesday, is signed by the former Archbishop of Canterbury Lord Williams, the Methodist Church in Britain, the Scottish Episcopal Church, the Quakers, and several Roman Catholic religious orders. It opposes the $556 billion that Barclays, HSBC, Santander, NatWest, and Lloyds have reportedly provided to the fossil-fuel industry since the Paris Climate Agreement was signed in 2015.

Lord Williams said: “Banks are very understandably seen as institutions we need to be able to trust. What we are asking is that the main high street banks should show themselves to be fully worthy of that trust by playing their part in creating a future we can trust, a future in which our lethal dependence on fossil fuels will at last be put behind us.”

Read it all.

A coalition of Christian organisations has written an open letter to the UK’s high street banks, calling on them to stop financing new fossil fuels or risk losing their business https://t.co/d8hfnnyPUS

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) November 19, 2024

Until recently, the Russian government had cushioned the economy from higher borrowing costs. A variety of schemes made it easier for households to suspend debt payments and for firms to borrow at lower subsidised rates, with the government stepping in to compensate banks for lost income. There are signs, though, that such programmes are becoming unaffordable. A mortgage-subsidy scheme, which had allowed borrowing at a cost of just 8% when official rates were much higher, ended on July 1st. Mortgage volumes halved in the following month. Corporate bankruptcies have risen by 20% this year. The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a trade body, reckons investment plans for next year are being put on hold owing to heavy borrowing costs.

Higher interest rates will crimp spending by both firms and consumers. The IMF expects Russian economic growth to slow sharply to 1.3% next year. Even VEB, the state-run development bank, has cut its growth estimate to 2%. A combination of lower investment and manpower lost to the front is taking a toll. The need to maintain the value of the rouble to pay for crucial imports is a vulnerability for Mr Putin, and one which could soon take a toll on his ability to fight. He may be hoping that Donald Trump keeps his promise to bring the conflict to an end. Waging a 3% war is one thing; a 21% war is quite another. 

Read it all.

Russia’s economy has confounded analysts since the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Now, however, Vladimir Putin may be hoping that Donald Trump keeps his promise to bring the conflict to an end https://t.co/EQL3wCoHSh

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 20, 2024

The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events.

By the morning of the election, Polymarket showed $1.8 billion in trading volume on who would win the presidency (Trump at 62%) and an additional half billion on who would win the popular vote (Harris at 73%). The biggest bet on a Trump victory was placed by an enigmatic “whale” known only as Théo.

Trump’s victory was even more decisive than the prediction markets foresaw. Even on Polymarket, few shared Théo’s conviction that Trump would win the popular vote. But the prediction markets were still a lot closer than most opinion polls and political pundits, nearly all of which clustered around a neck-and-neck result.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Election Day that “Prediction Markets Point to Likely Trump Victory,” giving the former president a chance of success between 57% and 62%. But most polls showed the election as headed for a tie. Renowned election forecaster Nate Silver wrote on election morning: “We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012,” thereby giving the sitting vice president a 50.015% chance of winning the election.

Nope.

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“How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024.” Did you know that betting on elections is older than opinion polls? And why it’s more likely to predict the result? My latest for ⁦@WSJ⁩ with ⁦@mrinconcruz⁩. https://t.co/GqYQP2MmJo

— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) November 15, 2024

Donald Trump is projected to return to the White House next January, according to the Associated Press, and is poised to spur the most dramatic reimagining of the staffing of government in more than a century.

That’s because Trump has vowed to revive Schedule F, a controversial abortive effort at the end of his first term to strip the civil service protections of potentially tens of thousands of career federal workers in “policy-related” positions, effectively making them at-will employees. Trump and many of his former staffers have frequently bemoaned that “rogue bureaucrats” inhibited his policymaking power during his first stint in the White House.

Though President Biden quickly rescinded Schedule F when he took office in 2021—before any positions could be converted out of the federal government’s competitive service—that hasn’t stopped Trump and his allies from working on the initiative in absentia. Both the Heritage Foundation and America First Policy Institute, which have organized dueling unofficial transition projects have endorsed reviving Schedule F, going so far as to creating lists of upwards of 50,000 current career civil servants to strip of their removal protections and threaten with termination.

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What Trump’s win means for the federal workforce https://t.co/rCiwJi8BUN

— Nextgov/FCW (@NextgovFCW) November 6, 2024

He called himself a simple onion farmer, a Mayan Indian with four kids and a fourth-grade education.

U.S. prosecutors knew better.

By his late 30s, Felipe Diego Alonzo had built a crime route stretching from Central America to Texas, allegedly paying off Mexican drug cartels along the way. He tooled around Guatemala’s western highlands in a loaded silver Ford Ranger pickup. When the police finally raided his ranch, they found a study in rural narco-chic: wooden chalets, a swimming pool, a show horse valued at $100,000.

What they didn’t find was a narco. Alonzo’s business “was more profitable than drug trafficking,” said one of the Guatemalan officials who detained him.

Alonzo was moving people.

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As smuggling rings made billions from migrants, the U.S. was sidelined https://t.co/QKiCwSIpZx

— Mary Beth Sheridan (@marybsheridan) November 1, 2024

Payments from government entitlement programs — transfer payments — are the fastest-growing major component of citizens’ personal income. Such transfers are the third-largest source of personal income: In 2022, the average citizen received almost as much from government transfers ($11,500) as from investments ($12,900), and more than one-quarter as much money as was obtained from work. This average citizen received six times more (adjusted for inflation) in government transfer payments than in 1970, during which span income from other sources increased less than half as much. Transfers’ share of total (inflation-adjusted) personal income has more than doubled since 1970, from 8.2 percent to 17.6 percent in 2022.

The Washington-based Economic Innovation Group, which promotes economic dynamism, has released a report, “The Great ‘Transfer’-mation,” explaining how swiftly U.S. communities became dependent on government transfer payments. In 2022, Americans received $3.8 trillion in government transfers, 18 percent of all personal income. In 1970, not even 1 percent of counties received one-quarter or more of personal income from transfers. By 2000, 10 percent did; in 2022, it was 53 percent. This is certain to increase as the population ages.

The primary explanation: the aging U.S. population.

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https://t.co/O2tuE8fr4b
A mountain of government payments buries the myth of American self-reliance

— The Good Shepherd (@HoyasFan07) October 30, 2024

Data centers are the factories of AI, turning energy and data into intelligence. Industry leaders estimate that a few major U.S. technology companies alone are expected to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure, particularly in data centers, between 2023 and 2026. The countries that work with companies to host data centers running AI workloads gain economic, political, and technological advantages and leverage. But data centers also present national security sensitivities, given that they often house high-end, export-controlled semiconductors and governments, businesses, and everyday users send some of their most sensitive information through them. And while the United States is ahead of China in many aspects of AI, especially in software and chip design, America faces significant bottlenecks with data centers.

Data centers are critical for the digital economy and AI. But the data center buildout is hitting a wall. The United States is home to the plurality of the world’s data centers, numbering in the thousands. Yet America’s aging energy grid, which powers those data centers, is under enormous strain from a complex set of factors, including rising electricity demand, delayed infrastructure upgrades, extreme weather events, and the complex transition to renewable energy. Meanwhile, surging data center demands driven by rapidly increasing AI workloads are exacerbating the grid’s vulnerabilities.

It’s not just a question of how those energy needs can be met, but where. When it comes to data centers, the shortage of powered land in the United States—or more specifically, the shortage of powered land with the connectivity required to support large-scale data centers—combined with supply chain challenges and lengthy permitting timelines for new infrastructure—presents a challenge to realizing both the public and private sectors’ AI ambitions.

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There are a lot of known unknowns about AI, but “The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics.” In my latest @ForeignPolicy piece, I argue that data might be the “new oil,” but nations—not nature—will decide where to build data centers. Source: Foreign Policy https://t.co/CHLEzhY9I6

— Jared Cohen (@JaredCohen) October 28, 2024