Public pension systems in the U.S. have seen a significant increase in unfunded liabilities, particularly during the Great Recession. Between 2007 and 2010, unfunded liabilities grew by over $1.11 trillion—a 632% increase—reflecting the financial challenges faced during that period. Despite some improvements in funding ratios over the last decade, these liabilities have continued to rise, underscoring ongoing financial pressures.

As of the end of the 2023 fiscal year for each public pension system, total unfunded public pension liabilities (UAL) reached $1.59 trillion, with state pension plans carrying the majority of the debt.

The median funded ratio of public pension plans stood at 76% at the end of 2023, but stress tests suggest that another economic downturn could significantly increase unfunded liabilities, potentially raising the total to $2.71 trillion by 2025.

Read it all.

At the end of the 2023 fiscal year, the nation's public pension systems had $1.59 trillion in total unfunded liabilities.https://t.co/msg89p70Mr

— Pension Integrity Project (@ReasonPensions) October 3, 2024

President Joe Biden and his administration are sticking to their position of not invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force International Longshoremen’s Association dock workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports where a strike is hitting day two on Wednesday, a political decision that reflects the power of unions one month out from an election but risks losing some progress on what is the No. 1 issue for many voters: the economy.

Rhetoric from Cabinet secretaries, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, has become sharper in recent days, pointing the finger at the ports ownership and ocean carriers. But right now, there is no sign of any progress bringing the ILA and port owners back to the table for a new round of negotiations, according to CNBC sources. And there remains a big risk on the other side of the political decision-making: wage increases that are a win for workers but ultimately ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices, both domestically and around the world.

Much of the focus about the economic impact of the ports strike to date has been focused on the direct hit to the economy from the massive trade shutdown, and the ways in which supply chain congestion and delays can result in higher prices being passed along to consumers, which will become a bigger factor the longer a strike persists. But maritime and business experts are also warning about the risk of persistent wage inflation making its way into supply chain prices that the Federal Reserve has recently been successful in taming.

Read it all.

The East and Gulf Coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration https://t.co/x17dHuIkW9

— CNBC (@CNBC) October 2, 2024

The long-feared “wider war” in the Middle East is here.

For the last 360 days, since the images of the slaughter of about 1,200 people in Israel last Oct. 7 flashed around the world, President Biden has warned at every turn against allowing a terrorist attack by Hamas to spread into a conflict with Iran’s other proxy force, Hezbollah, and ultimately with Iran itself.

Now, after Israel assassinated the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and began a ground invasion of Lebanon, and after Iran retaliated on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel, it has turned into one of the region’s most dangerous moments since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967.

The main questions now are how much the conflict might intensify, and whether the United States’ own forces will get more directly involved.

Read it all.

A Wider War in the Middle East, From Hamas to Hezbollah and Now Iran – The New York Times https://t.co/JjU4OyZeLr

— cecilia ballesteros (@ceciliab) October 2, 2024

For the first time in nearly 50 years, dockworkers at ports along the East and Gulf coasts have gone on strike.

Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association walked off the job at 12:01 a.m. Oct. 1 — the minute their six-year labor contracts expired — with three local Charleston union affiliates picketing outside S.C. State Ports Authority terminals for better wages, job security and “respect.”

Nearly 20 people stood along Morrison Drive in Charleston, across from the SPA’s Columbus Street Terminal, holding high signs that read “No work without a fair contract” and “Automation hurts families: ILA stands for job protection.”

Randy Campbell, a union vice president, said that members of his local ILA 1771, and two others, 1422 and 1422A, will remain outside of the Wando Welch, North Charleston and Columbus Street terminals until negotiations are done.

Read it all.

This morning, at 12:01 a.m., 45,000 union dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) at major ports along the East and Gulf coasts went on strike.

Here’s what you need to know: https://t.co/HPCE6q1m8v pic.twitter.com/7eBJ51cow4

— SC Chamber of Commerce (@scchamber) October 1, 2024

Allison Jumper’s family was a picture of healthy living. Active kids. Wholesome meals. A freezer stocked with organic beef from her in-laws’ farm in Maine.

Then in late 2020, she got a devastating call from her brother-in-law. High levels of harmful “forever chemicals” had been detected on their farm and in their cows’ milk, and they were getting shut down.

At first, Mrs. Jumper worried only about her in-laws’ livelihoods. But soon, her mind went somewhere else: to her own children’s mysterious health issues, including startlingly high cholesterol levels.

“Then it hit me,” she said at her home in Durham, N.H. “Could it be the beef?”

Read it all.

Her family’s farm was hiding dangerous chemicals in their food https://t.co/6aYN9OtCNW

— Judith Enck (@enckj) September 23, 2024

You may

sense that governments are not as competent as they once were. Upon entering the White House in 2021, President Joe Biden promised to revitalise American infrastructure. In fact, spending on things like roads and rail has fallen. A flagship plan to expand access to fast broadband for rural Americans has so far helped precisely no one. Britain’s National Health Service soaks up ever more money, and provides ever worse care. Germany mothballed its last three nuclear plants last year, despite uncertain energy supplies. The country’s trains, once a source of national pride, are now always late.

You may also have noticed that governments are bigger than they once were. Whereas in 1960 state spending across the rich world was equal to 30% of GDP, now it is above 40%. In some countries growth in the state’s economic power has been still more dramatic. Since the mid-1990s Britain’s government spending has risen by six percentage points of gdp, while South Korea’s has risen by ten points. All of which raises a paradox: if governments are so big, why are they so ineffective?

The answer is that they have turned into what can be called “Lumbering Leviathans”. In recent decades governments have overseen an enormous expansion in spending on entitlements. Because there has not been a commensurate increase in taxes, redistribution is crowding out spending on other functions of government, which, in turn, is damaging the quality of public services and bureaucracies. The phenomenon may help explain why people across the rich world have such little faith in politicians. It may also help explain why economic growth across the rich world is weak by historical standards.

Read it all.

Governments are bigger than ever. They are also more useless https://t.co/kt5sIZ1OqF

— Igor Wortel (@itwortel) September 23, 2024

Climate optimism is fading. Higher costs, pushback from businesses and consumers, and the slow rollout of technology are delaying the transition from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy is growing faster than expected. But surging demand for power is sucking up much of that additional capacity and forcing utilities to burn fossil fuels, including coal, for longer than expected.

With greenhouse-gas emissions continuing at record levels, scientists expect floods and heat waves to get worse. This year is on track to be the hottest on record.

“The pace of our response is obviously totally insufficient,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich. On this trajectory, “it will become increasingly impossible to face the changing climate we are going to experience,” she said.

Read it all.

Climate optimism is fading as high costs and new priorities like AI push the energy transition down the priority list for businesses and investors. Climate week story taking stock of the setbacks w/ @edmballard:https://t.co/7tZDL7w0Sd

— Amrith Ramkumar (@AmrithRamkumar) September 23, 2024

The start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle is a huge moment for the international financial system. Central banks in emerging markets can loosen a little without fearing a run on their currencies. Indonesia’s central bank has stopped defending the rupiah and dared to cut rates. India’s Sensex stock index hit an all-time high on Thursday as markets anticipate a new world of abundant liquidity and surging inflows of foreign funds.

The Fed’s jumbo half-point cut is transmitted instantly to the 40-odd countries and currency boards linked to the US dollar in one way or another. These regions were forced to import the most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years through their exchange rates, whether or not their local economies were synchronised with the US cycle….

But there is a large caveat to this rosy global picture. It all depends on whether the Fed is ahead of the curve and delivers a soft landing; or whether it is behind the curve, has misjudged the delayed effects of past tightening, and has already let recessionary dynamics take hold.

These binary outcomes can have drastically different consequences for the world.

Mislav Matejka, equity strategist at JP Morgan, says there have been four soft landings and eight recessions in the last 12 Fed cycles. The “softs” delivered stock market gains of 20pc or so over the following year. The “hards” led to months of sell-offs, snowballing into wipeout crashes in 2001 and 2008. This time the starting point is stretched after a 26pc rise in Wall Street’s S&P 500 index over the last year.

Read it all.

Enjoy the torrid Fed rally, but the world is not out of the woods yet https://t.co/of6TpXposG

— Felix Randal (@felixrandal) September 20, 2024

On July 21st Matt Roan, chair of the Cumberland County Democratic Committee, hosted a meeting with volunteers. The event took a turn when Mr Roan stopped to read a statement from Joe Biden announcing his departure from the presidential race. “There was this sort of sense of sadness—and then immediate hope,” Mr Roan recalls in his office, which overlooks the Pennsylvania state capitol. The activist speaks highly of Mr Biden but acknowledged that “things were not looking good” at the time. The rise of Kamala Harris attracted a surge of volunteers to a county that favoured Donald Trump by around 18 points in 2016 but only 11 points in 2020. If such improvements hold there and in other areas like it, Ms Harris would probably win the state and the presidency.

Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as a fulcrum of the 2024 election, and for good reason. The Economist’s forecast model suggests that the state—with its 19 electoral-college votes, the most of any swing state—is the tipping-point in 27% of the model’s updated simulations, meaning it decides the election more often than any other state. Mr Trump wins only 7% of the time when he loses the Keystone State. Indeed, he narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, and then he lost by 80,000 votes out of nearly 7m cast in his unsuccessful re-election bid four years later.

No state has drawn more money. Of the $839.5m that the Harris campaign and allied organisations already have spent or committed to advertising, $164.1m has gone to this state of 13m people. The less well-heeled Trump operation has directed $135.7m of $458.8m to Pennsylvania. Turn on the television, watch a YouTube video or listen to the radio inside Pennsylvania and it won’t be long before spots for Ms Harris or Mr Trump begin to play.

Read it all.

The battle for Pennsylvania is on.

For all the money both presidential candidates are pouring into the swing state, the race remains extremely close https://t.co/Su2xduW2Pr 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) September 20, 2024

Further tens of millions of pounds are to be pumped into efforts to drastically reduce the Church of England’s carbon emissions over the next six years, the first impact report on its net-zero programme says.

The report summarises progress on the General Synod’s ambition to achieve net zero by 2030, which was set in 2020 (News, 12 February 2020). The Synod approved a “route map” to this goal two years later (News, 15 July 2022).

In real terms, the target is to decrease the Church’s emissions — mainly from its buildings — by 90 per cent against the current baseline: 415,000 tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (415,000T CO2e). The remaining ten per cent is to be offset by carbon-cancelling schemes, such as tree-planting and installing solar panels.

Read it all.

Further tens of millions of pounds are to be pumped into efforts to drastically reduce the Church of England’s carbon emissions over the next six years, the first impact report on its net-zero programme says https://t.co/GlXOa0tBpM pic.twitter.com/NAkFHUtMIL

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) September 19, 2024

The FBI said on Wednesday that it had disrupted a Chinese hacking group nicknamed “Flax Typhoon”  that targeted critical infrastructure in the United States.

The Flax Typhoon hackers installed malicious software on thousands of computers and other internet-connected devices including cameras, video recorders and routers.

This created a botnet — a massive network of infected computers.

Universities, government agencies, telecommunications providers, media organizations and NGOs were among the targets, the FBI said.

“Flax Typhoon’s actions caused real harm to its victims, who had to devote precious time to clean up the mess when they discovered the malware,” said FBI director Chris Wray.

Read it all.

A hacker group known as Flax Typhoon was able to infect hundreds of thousands of devices around the world, authorities said. China has denied any involvement in the malicious botnet.https://t.co/FoeAA9IPMg

— DW News (@dwnews) September 19, 2024

It’s 1 a.m. and Thomas Wu is riding his bike on the empty streets of Shanghai. The 43-year-old insurance executive has had another meltdown.

Wu’s pay has been slashed by 20% in a nationwide push to lower salaries at state-owned finance companies. He frets about layoffs and wonders how he’ll find 600,000 yuan ($84,500) to keep his two children in international school — a hallmark of upper-middle-class life in China. His six-year-old is behind in math.

“What’s the point of driving our kids nuts studying so hard?” Wu said. “The top-tier graduates can’t find a job, those who come back from overseas can’t find a job.” Pay increases, he says, are no longer tied to effort. “My work is meaningless.”

Read it all.

China created a new class of highly paid white-collar worker. Now their dreams are being crushed. https://t.co/FtWSrjgm8J #TheBigTake

— Kristine Servando (@tinssoldier) September 19, 2024

The economic, social, and public benefits provided by universities are “threatened by the financial crisis” in higher education, the Bishop of Sheffield, Dr Pete Wilcox, has warned.

Contributing to a two-hour debate on the subject in the House of Lords last week, Dr Wilcox said that, in his diocese, the University of Sheffield and Sheffield Hallam University “support more than 19,500 jobs and generate more than £1 billion annually for the local economy. What is true in Sheffield is true across the country: universities are generally hugely beneficial to the communities within which they are situated.”

The Church of England believed that higher education should serve the common good, he said. The universities mentioned did this in a variety of ways, including private investment, and volunteer and work placements across health, social care, the law, and other areas.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

The economic, social, and public benefits provided by universities are “threatened by the financial crisis” in higher education, the Bishop of Sheffield @PeteWilcox1564 has warned https://t.co/Jx29BNFPf0

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) September 17, 2024

Every weekday in New York City, close to one million bus riders — roughly one out of every two passengers — board without paying. The skipped fares are a crucial and growing loss of revenue for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which is under severe financial pressure.

New York’s long-running fare evasion problem, among the worst of any major city in the world, has intensified recently; before the pandemic, only about one in five bus riders skipped the fare.

Yet public officials have done relatively little to collect the lost revenue from bus riders. Instead, they have focused almost exclusively on the subway system, where waves of police officers and private security guards have been deployed to enforce payment, even as fare evasion rates on trains are dwarfed by those on buses.

During the first three months of this year, 48 percent of bus riders did not pay, according to the latest available statistics from the transit authority, while 14 percent of subway riders evaded fares. Roughly twice the number of people ride the city’s subways as ride its buses.

Read it all.

Fare Evasion Surges on N.Y.C. Buses, Where 48% of Riders Fail to Pay – The New York Times https://t.co/VLrgiS8i7o

— Bernadette Hogan (@bern_hogan) August 27, 2024

Cyber attacks pose a risk as big as terrorism and flooding, according to two of the world’s biggest insurance groups that are calling for state support to help the industry to absorb losses. 

Insurer Zurich and Marsh McLennan, the world’s biggest insurance broker, say in a new report that cyber threats are “outpacing the ability of traditional insurance and risk management approaches to fully mitigate them”.  There are “limits to the amount of financial loss” the private sector can absorb, the report says, given the potentially huge losses that could be caused by a cyber attack on critical infrastructure.

It proposes a number of steps to address this, including creating public-private partnerships to share losses from currently “uninsurable” events, such as a cyber attack that causes a widespread failure of key infrastructure.

Read it all (subscription).

Insurance groups urge state support for ‘uninsurable’ cyber risks https://t.co/H2zrEsMrLY

— Finance News (@ftfinancenews) September 4, 2024

On this three day weekend, when we rest from our usual labors, loving Father, we pray for all who shoulder the tasks of human laboring the marketplace, in factories and offices, in the professions, and in family living.

We thank you, Lord, for the gift and opportunity of work; may our efforts always be pure of heart, for the good of others and the glory of your name.

We lift up to you all who long for just employment and those who work to defend the rights and needs of workers everywhere.

May those of us who are now retired always remember that we still make a valuable contribution to our Church and our world by our prayers and deeds of charity.

May our working and our resting all give praise to you until the day we share together in eternal rest with all our departed in your Kingdom as you live and reign Father, Son, and Holy Spirit, one God, forever and ever. Amen.

–-The Archdiocese of Detroit

In 1894, President Cleveland signed a bill that declared #LaborDay a national holiday.https://t.co/jdF8qHxTJz pic.twitter.com/GcCrF2SJkq

— Presidential Trivia (@triviapotus) September 2, 2024

Firms that manage drug benefits, which promise to keep a lid on high drug costs, instead steer patients away from less expensive medicines and overcharge for cancer therapies, Federal Trade Commission investigators found.

The FTC, in a report released Tuesday, detailed a number of actions that it said large pharmacy-benefit managers use to boost their profits and increase the spending of the health plans and employers that hired them to control costs. The actions can also lead to higher outlays for patients at the pharmacy counter, the agency said.

The findings follow a two-year investigation into the firms, known as PBMs, and calls from some lawmakers to rein in the firms’ business practices.

FTC Chair Lina Khan said the agency planned further scrutiny of big PBMs with the goal of making healthcare affordable. “Dominant pharmacy-benefit managers can hike the cost of drugs—including overcharging patients for cancer drugs,” she said. 

Read it all.

PBMs are a paradigmatic example of how a middleman meant to reduce costs and enhance efficiency becomes so bloated and powerful that it adds to costs and reduces efficiency. Great to see FTC addressing this issue!https://t.co/q0s3VC638W

— Kate Judge (@ProfKateJudge) July 9, 2024

US consumer confidence eased this month on a more muted outlook for business conditions, the job market and incomes.

The Conference Board’s gauge of sentiment decreased to 100.4 from a downwardly revised 101.3 reading in May, data out Tuesday showed. June’s measure of expectations for the next six months fell nearly 2 points to 73, while present conditions increased from a downwardly revised May reading.

Confidence has been subdued over the past few years as consumers contend with a higher cost of living, elevated borrowing costs and, more recently, a softening in the labor market. Only 12.5% of consumers expect business conditions to improve in the next six months, the smallest share since 2011.

Read it all.

US consumer confidence eased this month as Americans’ outlook for the economy deteriorated. https://t.co/Ma7ORsFUwm

— Bloomberg (@business) June 25, 2024

The breathtaking events unfolding in France expose all the old deformities of the half-finished euro project. They revive the poisonous internal politics that have long bedeviled monetary union, pitting Teutonic creditors against Latin debtors with conflicting morality tales.

The ECB’s untested Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) allows the governing council to buy distressed bonds on its own authority, but only for countries that pursue (a) “sound fiscal and macroeconomic policies”; (b) are not “subject to an excessive deficit procedure”; (c) do not have “severe macroeconomic imbalances”; (d) where the “trajectory of public debt is sustainable”; and (e) where stress is “not warranted by country-specific fundamentals”.

France fails on most counts, and is on course to fail on every single one under any of the scenarios likely to emerge on July 7, including the pre-insurrectional chaos of a state with no functioning government at all.

Read it all.

Macron has killed fiscal union stone dead, and without fiscal union the euro cannot work over the long run. It will lurch from crisis to crisis until Germany finally loses patiencehttps://t.co/PgRl8XRzb0

— Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (@EvansAmbro84839) June 25, 2024

Americans are getting older. By 2032, about a quarter of the US population will be over 65, up from 10% in 1970. And while it’s true that people are both living and staying healthier for longer, many will eventually need someone to care for them. A report by Wells Fargo in March estimated that an additional 1.7 million people will need some form of elder care in a decade.

This is hard on families for so many reasons — emotional, logistical — but today I’ll focus on the economic ones. First, the good news: The rise in the need for elder care means there will also be an increase in the number of elder care jobs available. The Department of Labor projects that the elder care industry will add 22% more jobs by 2032, and the majority of them will probably go to women. (Currently 82% of home health and personal care aides are women.)

Now the bad news: the pay for elder care is notoriously low, with a median salary of just $33,530 per year. That’s less than what preschool teachers ($37,130) and secretaries make ($46,010), and roughly on par with that of a childcare worker. The rise in demand has led to an increase in wages, but the pay is still pretty bad. That’s why, much like child care, the elder care industry is beset by staffing shortages and a high turnover rate.

Also like child care, elder care is incredibly expensive.

Read it all.

America’s ‘Silver Tsunami’ Crisis Is Only Just Beginning ⁦@markets⁩ https://t.co/Hnn7PVN9Kl

— Amb Antonio Garza (@aogarza) June 21, 2024

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)…[recently] released new ten-year budget and economic projections – an update from its February baseline – again confirming that the national debt is on an unsustainable path. According to CBO’s new projections:

Debt held by the public will reach a new record by the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 – 106.2 percent of GDP – and rise to 122.4 percent of GDP by the end of 2034.

The budget deficit will rise to $1.9 trillion (6.7 percent of GDP) in FY 2024 and $2.9 trillion (6.9 percent of GDP) by 2034, totaling $22.1 trillion over the 2025-2034 budget window.

Interest costs will reach a near-record 3.1 percent of GDP this year – exceeding defense and Medicare spending – set a new record next year and grow to 4.1 percent of GDP by FY 2034.

Under CBO’s latest baseline, federal debt held by the public will grow by $23 trillion through FY 2034, from over $27 trillion today to nearly $51 trillion by the end of 2034. As a share of the economy, debt will rise from 97.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2023 to 106.2 percent by 2027 – surpassing the prior record set just after World War II – and 122.4 percent of GDP by 2034. Debt in 2034 will be $2.4 trillion and 6.4 percent of GDP higher than projected in February.

Read it all.

📈 In its latest budget and economic projections released today, @USCBO again confirmed that the national debt is on an unsustainable path:

➤ Debt held by the public will reach a new record by the end of FY 2027, rising to 122.4% of GDP by the end of 2034.

➤ The budget… pic.twitter.com/22RnFOTbDh

— CRFB.org (@BudgetHawks) June 18, 2024

Amber and Devin Weise lived in distant states when they met in an online social media group for Christian singles. They quickly became a couple, spending hours texting or talking on video chat. After several months of long-distance dating Devin wanted to propose, but thought it was proper and more romantic to do it in person.

Amber hinted she’d be OK with a proposal on a video call. Devin proposed and sent the ring in the mail.

It wasn’t until after they married that they learned the federal disability benefits program Amber relied upon penalizes couples who marry. Amber lost her monthly income check and the health care that came with it.

Amber is one of 7.4 million people who rely upon Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, a federal program that provides monthly cash assistance to disabled and older people with little income and resources. And for Amber and others, being on SSI is also the way they get health insurance.

Read it all.

Couples say they can't get married because of this government program's outdated rules. – Social Security's SSI program for people with disabilities requires couples to have no more than $3,000 in assets via NPR https://t.co/WZnjFejpUz

— Olav Mitchell Underdal (@omunderdal) June 20, 2024

Even more striking to me are the political, social, and cultural resemblances I detect between the U.S. and the USSR. Gerontocratic leadership was one of the hallmarks of late Soviet leadership, personified by the senility of Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, and Konstantin Chernenko. 

But by current American standards, the later Soviet leaders were not old men. Brezhnev was 75 when he died in 1982, but he had suffered his first major stroke seven years before. Andropov was only 68 when he succeeded Brezhnev, but he suffered total kidney failure just a few months after taking over. Chernenko was 72 when he came to power. He was already a hopeless invalid, suffering from emphysema, heart failure, bronchitis, pleurisy, and pneumonia.

It is a reflection of the quality of healthcare enjoyed by their American counterparts today that they are both older and healthier. Nevertheless, Joe Biden (81) and Donald Trump (78) are hardly men in the first flush of youth and vitality, as The Wall Street Journal recently made cringe-inducingly clear. The former cannot distinguish between his two Hispanic cabinet secretaries, Alejandro Mayorkas and Xavier Becerra. The latter muddles up Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi. If Kamala Harris has never watched The Death of Stalin, it’s not too late.

Another notable feature of late Soviet life was total public cynicism about nearly all institutions. Leon Aron’s brilliant book Roads to the Temple shows just how wretched life in the 1980s had become.

Read it all.

"Are We the Soviets?" After four happy years at @opinion, it was time for a change. So here's my first column for @TheFP, with thanks to @bariweiss for recruiting me to her happy band. https://t.co/Zwxj3ChLLb pic.twitter.com/cyK0xHX7tQ

— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) June 18, 2024

The Group of 7 countries might have set a record when they met in Italy last week. Has there ever been a less popular assemblage of leaders of the free world? Approval ratings ranged from Giorgia Meloni of Italy’s about 40 percent to Emmanuel Macron of France’s 21 percent to Fumio Kishida of Japan’s 13 percent. Last year the Edelman Trust Barometer found that only 20 percent of people in the G7 countries thought that they and their families would be better off in five years. Another Edelman survey, from 2020, uncovered a broad distrust of capitalism in countries across the world, “driven by a growing sense of inequity and unfairness in the system.”

Why the broad dissatisfaction with an economic system that is supposed to offer unsurpassed prosperity? Ruchir Sharma, the chairman of Rockefeller International and a Financial Times columnist, has an answer that boils down to two words: easy money. In an eye-opening new book, “What Went Wrong With Capitalism,” he makes a convincing case.

“When the price of borrowing money is zero,” Sharma told me this week, “the price of everything else goes bonkers.” To take just one example: In 2010, as the era of ultralow and even negative interest rates was getting started, the median sale price for a house in the United States hovered around $220,000. By the start of this year, it was more than $420,000.

Nowhere has inflation (in the broad sense of the term) been more evident than in global financial markets. In 1980 they were worth a total of $12 trillion — equal to the size of the global economy at the time. After the pandemic, Sharma noted, those markets were worth $390 trillion, or around four times the world’s total gross domestic product.

Read it all.

How Capitalism Went Off the Rails

By Bret Stephens, Opinion Columnist @nytimes

"The social consequence of this is rage; the political consequence is populism."
https://t.co/yD7bmUnqDw

— Stefan Michaelsen (@stefanmichaelse) June 19, 2024

Global defence companies are recruiting workers at the fastest rate since the end of the cold war as the industry seeks to deliver on order books that are near record highs.

A Financial Times survey of the hiring plans of 20 large and medium-sized US and European defence and aerospace companies found they are looking to recruit tens of thousands of people this year. Three of the largest US contractors — Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics — have close to 6,000 job openings they need to fill, while 10 companies surveyed are seeking to increase positions by almost 37,000 in total, or almost 10 per cent of their aggregate workforce.

“Since the end of the cold war, this is the most intense period for the defence sector with the highest increase in order volume in a rather short period of time,” said Jan Pie, secretary-general of ASD, the European aerospace and defence trade association. 

Read it all (registration or subscription).

An FT survey of 20 industry groups has found that they are looking to recruit tens of thousands of people this year, as order books near record highs. https://t.co/ZCOnyOaJCK pic.twitter.com/in7XIqZByA

— Financial Times (@FT) June 17, 2024

US consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low in early June as high prices continued to take a toll on views of personal finances.

The sentiment index dropped to 65.6 in June from 69.1, according to the preliminary reading from the University of Michigan. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for the measure to rise to 72.

Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, up slightly from the 3% expected in May, the data out Friday showed. They see costs rising 3.3% over the next year, the same as in the previous month.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

Pretty rotten UoM Consumer Sentiment reading. Expectation was for 72.1, and we got 65.6 instead:

"Assessments of personal finances dipped, due to modestly rising concerns over high prices as well as weakening incomes." pic.twitter.com/Lpl8CXbJqQ

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 14, 2024

Nigeria is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with skyrocketing inflation, a national currency in free-fall and millions of people struggling to buy food. Only two years ago Africa’s biggest economy, Nigeria is projected to drop to fourth place this year.

The pain is widespread. Unions strike to protest salaries of around $20 a month. People die in stampedes, desperate for free sacks of rice. Hospitals are overrun with women wracked by spasms from calcium deficiencies.

The crisis is largely believed to be rooted in two major changes implemented by a president elected 15 months ago: the partial removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the currency, which together have caused major price rises.

A nation of entrepreneurs, Nigeria’s more than 200 million citizens are skilled at managing in tough circumstances, without the services states usually provide. They generate their own electricity and source their own water. They take up arms and defend their communities when the armed forces cannot. They negotiate with kidnappers when family members are abducted.

Nigeria Confronts Its Worst Economic Crisis in a Generation , with skyrocketing inflation, a national currency in free-fall and millions of people struggling to buy food https://t.co/umLRRrmPTv

— Xavier Delcourt (@x_delcourt) June 12, 2024

Almost two-thirds of Americans considered middle class said they are facing economic hardship and don’t anticipate a change for the rest of their lives, according to a poll commissioned by the National True Cost of Living Coalition.

By many traditional measures, the US economy is strong, with robust labor, housing and stock markets, as well as solid gross domestic product growth. But the data don’t capture the financial insecurity of millions of households who worry about their future and are unable to save, according to the group, created this year to come up with cost-of-living tools that help gauge economic well-being.

In the large poll of 2,500 adults, 65% of people who earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level — that’s at least $60,000 for a family of four, often considered middle class — said they are struggling financially.

Almost two-thirds of Americans considered middle class said they are facing economic hardship, according to a poll. In the survey, 65% of people who earn at least $60,000 for a family of four said they are struggling financially https://t.co/hwHmjJCI6y

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 4, 2024

The American worker is making peace with a longer ride.

Big shifts in the way people live and work are making commutes of over an hour into the office more common—and even more palatable. Rising housing costs have prompted many to move farther away from city centers, while the staying power of hybrid work means they don’t have to drive into work every day. 

The share of super commutes—those 75 miles or longer—have grown the most and are up by nearly a third since 2020, according to new research from Stanford University. 

Craig Allender’s family of four felt they had outgrown their three-bedroom home in Novato, Calif., and wanted to upgrade. They found a five-bedroom one 30 miles north in Sonoma County where lower housing costs put a 3,000-square-foot house in reach. 

America’s Commute to Work Is Getting Longer & Longer: "The share of super commutes—those 75 miles or longer—have grown the most & are up by nearly a third since 2020, according to new research from Stanford University" https://t.co/dfQsXWei1x

— Jim Russell (@ProducerCities) June 4, 2024

Never has it been so cheap to inflict a world of economic pain.

That stark point was underscored last week by Maximilian Hess, a principal at London-based Enmetena Advisory, a political risk consultancy. Speaking to a webinar of supply-chain managers, he showed a slide of a canoe-size naval drone and said such jury-rigged weapons have the ability to redirect world trade.

“Nowhere is this more clear than in the conflict in the Red Sea,” Hess said, referring to attacks launched from Yemen toward commercial ships trying to use the Suez Canal.

Nearly six months into the Houthis’ relentless campaign to protest Israel’s war in Gaza, the economic fallout is widening. As ships sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, their unpredictable schedules are clogging major Asian ports, creating shortages of empty containers in some places and pileups in others. Delivery times to the US and Europe are getting longer, and freight rates are surging.

🌎 Ships Diverted From Red Sea Send Ripple Effects Across the Globe – Bloomberghttps://t.co/1A8HVOJVKX pic.twitter.com/6fFCf9asLJ

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) June 3, 2024