For the first time in 15 years, the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, have lost their Lower House majority, following a clear rout in Sunday’s general election — a shift that opens up a potential path for the opposition to steer the lower chamber’s agenda if they can act cohesively.

The loss of its majority was likely to prompt Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to seek a third party to join the coalition in order to remain in power — a move that would necessitate negotiations, or even concessions.

Negotiating with a third party for its backing in parliament for every bill would exacerbate political instability and drastically reduce the LDP’s authority over the coalition, making Ishiba’s administration even shakier. The policymaking process would inevitably become more fragmented and laborious, requiring a great deal of political capital from the government.

Within the LDP, calls are now growing for accountability among the party leadership in the wake of the electoral drubbing.

Read it all.

🇯🇵 Elections: the LDP (in power almost without interruption since the 1950s) loses several dozen seats and the majority, even with its Buddhist ally Komeito. In addition to recurring scandals, Moon and and undeclared funding, it lost its image of economic efficiency. pic.twitter.com/yvDBAOkZ24

— Valerie Niquet (@VNiquet) October 28, 2024

The Death Spiral is one of the main Pentagon Pathologies. The American people devote ever greater resources to their defense while receiving less and less in return. The Air Force had 10,387 aircraft in 1975 when the Military Reformers began their work in earnest. Today the Air Force has 5,288. The Navy had 559 active ships in 1975. Today the fleet has only 296. The Pentagon’s base budget is more than 60% higher today than it was in 1975, when adjusted for inflation. The American people simply spend more and receive much less in return for their defense dollars.

An argument can be made that modern military equipment is more expensive because of the capabilities they provide the troops. That is extremely debatable because many of the high-profile acquisition programs over the past 25 years have been underwhelming at best, and often complete failures. It is difficult to find anyone who will honestly say the Littoral Combat Ship was worth the effort.

Left unchecked, the acquisition Death Spiral’s inevitable destination is unilateral disarmament. Norman Augustine, a former DoD official and Lockheed Martin CEO predicted in 1983, with only a hint of satire, that by 2054, “the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”

Read it all.

At the current spending rate, in another generation we will have a lot of rich contractors and no aircraft or Naval fleets to speak of https://t.co/k4XV5gsk7Z

— Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) October 24, 2024

The action is now moving beyond America. With over two-fifths of the world overweight or obese, demand for glp-1 drugs is voracious. Pharma companies are racing to make them work as pills, which would be cheaper to produce than jabs, and to reduce their side-effects. Generic versions for older GLP-1 agonists are entering the market. Semaglutide is to come off patent in Brazil, China and India in 2026; eight such drugs are in the works in China. That is just as well. As incomes in the developing world have risen and life has become more sedentary, people’s waistlines are catching up with those in the West.

Curbing obesity would be consequential. Yet glp-1 drugs promise to do much more. Overweight patients on semaglutide have been found to suffer fewer heart attacks and strokes; the benefits, astonishingly, seem to be largely independent of how much weight is lost. Tirzepatide improves sleep apnoea. Trials show that glp-1 agonists reduce chronic kidney disease in diabetics; and there are signs they may lessen brain shrinkage and cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s. Studies of health records suggest that they may help with addictions, too; people already on glp-1 drugs in America were less likely to overdose on opioids or abuse cannabis or alcohol. Researchers are even talking, in hushed tones, of their anti-ageing effects.

How can one class of drug do so much? As our briefing explains this week, not only do the drugs act in the gut, but they also bind to receptors all over the body and in the brain. 

Read it all.

I’ve been saying this for quite some time: GLP-1 agonists are miracle “everything drugs”! it’s likely there’ll be more of these types of drugs soon

“It’s not just obesity. Drugs like Ozempic will change the world
As they become cheaper, they promise to improve billions of lives” pic.twitter.com/61tc17dKRE

— Derya Unutmaz, MD (@DeryaTR_) October 24, 2024

Don’t turn our doctors into killers, says the Star. Like several of the opposing factions to the bill, it cites Canada as exemplifying the slippery slope, with one in twenty deaths there being by assisted dying.

This argument that the bill will open up unforeseen consequences for the disabled, and indeed for the unfortunate residents of bad care homes, is common, Archbishop Welby, facing down former Archbishop Carey, said that assisted dying was in effect a sword of Damocles over the disabled and aged. We should add that many Canadians choosing state sponsored suicide cite feeling a burden on family and caregivers as their motive. Canada surely vindicates Welby.

This argument really is cogent and necessary, but is it sufficient for a Christian view which sees humanity made in the image and likeness of God, leading to the doctrine of the sanctity of life? As Frost says this a doctrine that has permeated and grounded western civilization. Is it not simply wrong to kill people even those begging to die? Hospices and care giving was the Christian answer, but Christianity is fading fast with its practical altruistic legacy of looking after the sick and dying.

Lord Frost has pointed to our society’s reliance on Judaeo Christian ethics for all its institutions and to the perilous situation of breaking with this tradition of the sanctity of life for a callous utilitarianism. So far his is the deepest theological apologia for the classical Christian ethic of life  on offer, we trust Christian leaders will step up to the challenge soon.

Read it all.

Ask MPs to oppose assisted suicide ✋

Some helpful tips here 👇 https://t.co/wr1LYSQylr

— Better Way (@betterwayUK) October 24, 2024

In Shakespeare’s time, people still lived out their days under the shadow of divine reward and punishment. Lady Macbeth hopes otherwise. “A little water clears us of this deed,” she says as she and her husband rinse their hands of blood. How wrong she was. 

Our leaders could use a dose of the humility of Edward, the Earl of March, who prays, “Ere my knee rise from the earth’s cold face / I throw my hands, mine eyes, my heart to Thee / Thou setter-up and plucker-down of kings.”

King Lear knew what it was to be set up and plucked down, and only in his reduced state did he taste the wonder of grace. Shakespeare often echoes what theologians call “the theology of reversal,” as expressed in the Beatitudes.

In the paradox of grace, he describes in As You Like It, “Sweet are the uses of adversity / Which, like the toad, ugly and venomous / Wears yet a precious jewel in his head.” Dogberry, the comical constable in Much Ado About Nothing, gets his words mixed up in a deeply ironic way when he says to a wrongdoer, “O, villain! Thou wilt be condemned into everlasting redemption.”

Read it all.

William Shakespeare’s honest tragedies and bold assumption of God’s providence offer insight in our contentious election season.

From @philipyancey:https://t.co/O4FQPN9eCB

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 23, 2024

Private Medicare insurers got about $4.2 billion in extra federal payments in 2023 for diagnoses from home visits the companies initiated, even though they led to no treatment, a new inspector general’s report says.

The extra payments were triggered by diagnoses documented based on the visits, including potentially inaccurate ones, for which patients received no other medical services, the report says. Insurers offering private plans under Medicare, known as Medicare Advantage, are paid more when patients have costly conditions.

Each visit was worth $1,869 on average to the insurers, according to the Office of Inspector General for the Department of Health and Human Services. The findings are similar to those of a Wall Street Journal investigation published in August. It showed that insurers between 2019 and 2021 pocketed an average of $1,818 for each visit based on diagnoses for which people received no other treatment.

The OIG recommended in Thursday’s report for the first time that Medicare restrict or even cut off payments for diagnoses from these visits. 

Read it all.

It is official now that the @HHSOIG has determined that #MedicareAdvantage health plans w/ @UHC leading the way received over $4B in diagnosis upcoding from home visits. Medicare Paid Insurers Billions for Questionable Home Diagnoses, Watchdog Finds https://t.co/OO1R4Alcwk

— Ed Gaines (@EdGainesIII) October 24, 2024

More than a quarter of Americans believe that civil war could break out after this year’s presidential election, according to polling for The Times.

Fears that an eruption of violence is very or somewhat likely are shared across the political divide by 27 per cent of American adults, including 30 per cent of women and 24 per cent of men, YouGov found in a survey of 1,266 registered voters on October 18-21.

Twelve per cent of respondents said they knew someone who might take up arms if they thought Donald Trump was cheated out of victory in under two weeks’ time. Five per cent said they knew someone who might do the same if they thought Kamala Harris was cheated.

The YouGov poll found 84 per cent of US voters said America was more divided than ten years ago, with only 5 per cent thinking it less divided.

Read it all (subscription).

Just over a quarter of Americans fear civil war will break out after this year's elections, a new poll for @thetimes by @YouGovAmerica shows https://t.co/v5qGmVwJth

— David Charter (@DavidCharter) October 23, 2024

Less than a mile from Singapore’s luxurious Changi Airport sits a rather less glamorous business park. Residents of the industrial estate include freight and logistics firms, as well as the back offices of several banks. One building is a little different, however. Behind a glossy onyx facade, layers of security and imposing steel doors, sits more than $1bn in gold, silver and other treasures. “The Reserve” hosts dozens of private vaults, thousands of safe deposit boxes and a cavernous storage room where precious metals sit on shelves rising three storeys above the ground.

After four years of retrofitting, the complex is almost complete. Its grand opening will come at an opportune moment: gold is in the midst of an extraordinary renaissance. Over the past year investors have piled into the metal, driving its price up by 38% to over $2,700 per troy ounce—a record high (see chart 1). The buzz has reached unusual places: gold bars have hit the shelves of Costco, an American retailer, and CU, a South Korean convenience-store chain, as the resurgence of inflation and fears of war drive consumer enthusiasm. Central bankers are also getting involved, as financial fragmentation increases appetite for an ancient asset. The world has entered a new golden age.

Read it all.

What the surging gold price says about a dangerous world https://t.co/2oLSBR8QCy

— YD (@Enhance___) October 23, 2024

Canada’s fertility rate hit its lowest rate in recorded history for a second consecutive year in 2023. The spinoff impacts of this are already being felt – with Canada’s aging workforce joining a swelling retirement-age population and increasing economic pressure to meet this groups’ needs and entitlements.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds insight into the reasons behind lagging birth rates. ARI asked 1,300 Canadian adults younger than 50 if they plan to have children, and if not, why? Among this group, one-in-five are definitely (21%) going to have at least one child, while one-in-three (32%) say they may still do so. Within these two groups of potential parents, fully half say that they have delayed having kids longer than they ideally would have wanted. This rises to three-quarters (74%) among 35- to 44-year-olds. The top reasons driving delays are both societal and personal. For many, the search for the right partner has just not borne fruit (40%). For others, however, uncertainty surrounding their finances and the job market (41%) the cost of childcare (33%) and the housing affordability crisis (31%) are all drivers of the decision to wait.

Even among those who are definitely not going to have children (37% of the 1,300 adults surveyed) these worries about childcare and cost are a factor. One-quarter among this group say they decided not to have kids because the spectre of childcare costs was too daunting (25%), while one-in-five (18%) said it was too hard to foresee having proper housing to start a family.

With immigration playing a larger role year over year in sustaining the population – and criticism of immigration policy evidently growing – the historically low birth rate trend divides Canadians. They’re equally likely to feel that the birth rate is (43%) and isn’t (42%) a crisis.

Read it all.

"Half of Canadians who want children have waited longer than they’d like, due largely to cost." –@angusreidorg #cdnpoli #generationalfairness https://t.co/XtH9zRh2nA pic.twitter.com/9BbZg6CFEM

— Generation Squeeze (@GenSqueeze) October 17, 2024

 More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential election years in which Gallup has asked the question.

The latest findings are from a Sept. 16-28 poll, which also finds differences among partisans’ perceptions on this measure — Democrats (72%) are much more likely than independents (35%) or Republicans (7%) to view themselves as “better off.”

The higher-than-usual percentage of U.S. adults who say they are worse off this year is largely owing to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to say this than opponents of the incumbent president’s party had been in prior election years. Likewise, the higher-than-usual percentage of “better off” responses in 2020, when Donald Trump was in office, was attributable to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to give that response than supporters of the incumbent president’s party did in prior election years.

Read it all.

More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago.

New data: https://t.co/TAz6shizZE pic.twitter.com/2qpEG10tGC

— Gallup (@Gallup) October 19, 2024

Fears of violence have left some US election boards struggling to hire poll workers with less than three weeks to go before Americans vote in November’s presidential election.

Election administrators in battleground states Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin are still recruiting temporary staff to set up polling equipment, sign in voters and report results, according to Power the Polls, a non-partisan poll worker recruitment group. Officials in Maryland, Ohio and Florida are also still hiring staff for election day.

“The challenge [comes from concerns about] the safety and security of poll workers,” said Isaac Cramer, executive director of the election board in Charleston County, South Carolina. “I know that was a top concern of people who have left.”

Read it all.

Ongelofelijk: US polling places struggle to find workers after surge in threats. Four in 10 election administrators have added further security measures such as bulletproof glass and panic buttons. https://t.co/M4FbpXFjZI

— Hella Hueck  (@hellahueck) October 21, 2024

The Economist has spoken to a range of people with first-hand knowledge of Iran’s oil system. To check and verify what they told us, and flesh out the detail, we then sought information from other sources, including former sanctions officials, Iranian insiders, intelligence professionals and WikiIran, a third-party website soliciting leaks. Our investigation shows that the country has built sprawling shadow financial channels, which run from its oil rigs to the virtual vaults of its central bank. China, Iran’s main buyer, is an architect of this system, and its chief beneficiary. Global banks and financial hubs, often unknowingly, are used as vital cogs. A source familiar with Iran’s books says that, as of July, it had $53bn, €17bn ($19bn) and smaller pots of other currencies lying abroad.

Although enforcement has weakened in recent years, Iran is subject to the broadest sanctions America has imposed on any country. Aimed at forcing Iran to curb its nuclear enrichment and funding of terrorism, they target swathes of its economy, as well as the government. No other country imposes such stringent sanctions, so, in theory, most can deal with Iran. In practice, few do so openly, as America bans its firms not just from trading with Iran, but also with foreigners that knowingly do so. It is especially tough for Iran to receive and move dollars, as every such transaction, almost anywhere in the world, must eventually be cleared by an American bank.

But our report shows that, with patchy enforcement, determination and help from a greedy partner, a country under a de facto global embargo can end up flouting it on a cosmic scale. Many of Iran’s tactics are reminiscent of those a drug cartel would use to market products and recycle proceeds into other dark enterprises, often via seemingly legitimate businesses. Iran’s subterranean oil system is governed by rules as much as by threats. The task is to construct an elaborate charade that will dupe sanctions-enforcers.

Read it all.

Iran's money laundering network (simplified by the Economist) https://t.co/oIUs0Pjo3A pic.twitter.com/qI1FZb8okf

— Dr. Paul J. Sullivan (@DrPJSullivan) October 17, 2024

1 …most of us, in this brash and hasty culture, are more likely to need forbearance and grace for those we believe to be less spiritual, moral, intelligent, or knowledgeable than ourselves.

2-Forbearance isn’t tolerance. Grace is not condescension.

3-Nor are forbearance and grace indecision and cowardice.

4-Remember 1 John 4:20: “Whoever claims to love God yet hates a brother or sister is a liar.”

5-Lasting political disagreement among Christians is not by itself evidence of sin, unbelief, or any other dysfunction. Reasonable, faithful Christians may in good faith reach different conclusions. They may all have solid biblical support for their views; they may all seek the common good; they may all seek to love their neighbors; they may always disagree.

Read it all.

.@bonniekristian offers 25 precepts on disagreement, faithfulness, forbearance, and voting for this (and every) election season:https://t.co/MlJfCSwgUQ

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) September 30, 2024

As US Election Day approaches, inflation is largely tamed and wage gains have lifted incomes. Yet the economy remains the most pressing issue in the presidential race for one big reason: Increasingly, for many Americans, the long-standing building blocks of middle-class life feel frustratingly unattainable.

The standard 20% down payment on a median-priced home now costs 83% of a year’s income for the typical family ready to buy a home, up from 65% on the eve of the 2016 election, according to Bloomberg calculations. Buying a new car takes almost two extra weeks of work for the median household compared to eight years ago. Child care then cost the same family about a quarter of its weekly income. Now it swallows up more than a third.

And while the cost of attending college has gone down as a share of income in recent years, a median household can expect to pay 75% of its annual income for a private college and more than third for a public in-state university. That is up significantly from when many of today’s parents went to college themselves — and, in turn, can make the price tag look unnerving.

Read it all.

The Math Says It’s Getting Harder to Break Into the American Middle Class

Some major milestones are becoming frustratingly unattainable for many families – Bloomberg https://t.co/ncqA4FJ6g4?

— Jose A. Briones (@Brioneja) October 18, 2024

Inflation seems under control. The job market remains healthy. Wages, including at the bottom end of the scale, are rising. But this is just a lull. There is a storm approaching, and Americans are not prepared.

Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the U.S. economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.

There should be little surprise in this, since all these are evolving slowly in plain sight. What has not been fully understood is how these changes in combination are likely to transform the lives of working people in ways not seen since the late 1970s, when wage inequality surged and wages at the low end stagnated or even fell.

Together, if handled correctly, these challenges could remake work and deliver much higher productivity, wages and opportunities — something the computer revolution promised and never fulfilled. If we mismanage the moment, they could make good, well-paying jobs scarcer and the economy less dynamic. Our decisions over the next five to 10 years will determine which path we take.

Read it all.

America is sleepwalking into an economic storm.
— Daron Acemoglu

GIFT ARTICLE

Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape our economy: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.https://t.co/pf82B0DE9N

— Walter Appling (@WalterAppling) October 17, 2024

[According to Barclays’ economists…] The economic circumstances facing China have parallels with Japan’s experience after its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. This created the term ‘Japanification’, which is typically defined as a combination of slow growth, low inflation, and a low policy rate, accompanied by deteriorating demographic trends.

To measure this phenomena, a Japanese economist, Takatoshi Ito, introduced a Japanification Index, which measured the sum of the inflation rate, nominal policy rate, and GDP gap. To apply to China’s economy, we have adjusted this index, replacing the GDP gap with working-age population growth, as the estimation methods of GDP gaps differ across nations and working-age population is by far the most fundamental determinant for long-term growth. Our amended index shows that China’s economy has become more ‘Japanised’ than Japan’s recently, albeit marginally.

This not a surprise to us. A demographic drag, the emergence and collapse of asset bubbles, debt overhang, zombie companies, deflationary pressures from excess capacity/high debt, and high youth unemployment, to name a few, are some of the notable similarities between the economies of China and Japan post their bubbles.

Read it all.

"The “Japanification” of China continues to be a big theme, with a lot of eerie parallels right down to stimulus proving wanting. Here’s the latest symptom" https://t.co/tlxjGqqgnd pic.twitter.com/TnKwearGl0

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) October 17, 2024

Few sights

have better captured America’s world-beating ingenuity. On October 13th a giant booster rocket built by SpaceX hurtled to the edge of the atmosphere before plunging back to Earth and being neatly caught by the gantry tower from which, only minutes earlier, it had taken off. Thanks to this marvel of engineering, big rockets could become reusable and space exploration cheaper and bolder. Yet, just as the launch was a testimony to American enterprise, so Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, captures all that is going wrong with its politics. In his support for Donald Trump, Mr Musk has spread misinformation about voter fraud and hurricane relief and derided his opponents as ill-intentioned idiots.

America, too, continues to rack up a stellar economic performance even as its politics gets more poisonous. As they prepare to go to the polls in fewer than 20 days’ time, Republicans and Democrats have never mistrusted or disagreed with each other more. Against that gloomy backdrop, can America’s breathtaking economy possibly stay aloft?

Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. Lately, China too has gone backwards. Having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic, its nominal gdp has slipped from about three-quarters of America’s in 2021 to two-thirds today….

Read it all.

'Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust.' https://t.co/YjpRyqcC5v pic.twitter.com/gon4gqDtQm

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 17, 2024

Heading into an election where the economy is top of mind for many voters, pastors say finances have been difficult at their church this year.

A Lifeway Research study found 66% of U.S. Protestant pastors say the economy is very or somewhat negatively impacting their church. The two in three pastors who report a negative economic impact is the highest since 2011, and the 14% who say the impact has been very negative is the highest ever recorded in the 15-year history of the study.

Around one in 14 (7%) say their church is seeing a positive impact. A quarter (24%) aren’t seeing any impact either way, and 3% aren’t sure.

Last year, 50% said they experienced a negative impact, 40% no impact and 8% a positive impact. In 2022, 52% reported a negative effect, 40% said it was having no effect and 7% saw a positive influence.

“National trends of a favorable stock market along with unfavorable inflation and interest can influence a local congregation’s finances, but so do more local factors that contribute to economic problems or prosperity in the church’s community,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “In general, pastors have turned a little more negative in describing economic forces impacting their church this year.”

Read it all.

66% of U.S. Protestant pastors say the economy is very or somewhat negatively impacting their church, according to @LifewayResearch.
https://t.co/LlAFg38CxC

— The Pathway (@mbcpathway) October 17, 2024

The Church Commissioners excluded, on ethical grounds, more than 800 companies from potential investment last year, including, they report, 38 companies that failed to engage with them over connections with Russia.

The figures are set out in their latest stewardship report, An Ethical and Responsible Approach, published last week. It is prepared annually to meet the reporting obligations of the UK Financial Reporting Council’s Stewardship Code and the Principles for Responsible Investment.

The total endowment fund was valued at £10.4 billion at the end of 2023 — up from £10.3 billion at the end of 2022 (News, 2 June 2023). The report covers the first year of the 2023-25 triennium, in which the Commissioners have committed themselves to distributing £1.2 billion in support of the Church’s mission — an increase of about 30 per cent on the previous triennium (News, 7 June).

Read it all.

The Church Commissioners disinvested, on ethical grounds, from more than 800 companies last year, including, they report, 133 companies that failed to engage with them over connections with Russia https://t.co/pPbbJCy0N8

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 15, 2024

Imagine if having children came with more than $150,000 in cheap loans, a subsidized minivan and a lifetime exemption from income taxes.

Would people have more kids? The answer, it seems, is no.

These are among the benefits—along with cheap child care, extra vacation and free fertility treatments—that have been doled out to parents in different parts of Europe, a region at the forefront of the worldwide baby shortage. Europe’s overall population shrank during the pandemic and is on track to contract by about 40 million by 2050, according to United Nations statistics.

Birthrates have been falling across the developed world since the 1960s. But the decline hit Europe harder and faster than demographers expected—a foreshadowing of the sudden drop in the U.S. fertility rate in recent years. 

Read it all.

Worldwide Efforts to Reverse the Baby Shortage Are Falling Flat: "Demographers suggest the reluctance to have kids is a fundamental cultural shift rather than a purely financial one" https://t.co/GDF4fuEAA8

— Jim Russell (@ProducerCities) October 14, 2024

Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global gross domestic product, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the International Monetary Fund.

In its latest Fiscal Monitor — an overview of global public finance developments — the IMF said it expects debt to approach 100% of GDP by 2030, and it warns that governments will need to make tough decisions to stabilize borrowing.

Debt is tipped to increase in the US, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa and UK, according to the IMF report, which urges governments to rein in debt.

“Waiting is risky: country experiences show that high debt can trigger adverse market reactions and constrains room for budgetary maneuver in the face of negative shocks,” it said.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the IMF https://t.co/3beTtprVZ9

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 15, 2024

AtaLoss was founded in 2016 by Canon Yvonne Tulloch. When she was suddenly widowed, she realised how little she and those around her knew about bereavement, its difficulties and needs, and how hard it was to find understanding support. Yvonne had been trained in funeral ministry, but grief tends to be felt most in the months following the funeral.
 

As a society, we’ve not been good at talking about death. We’re loss-averse and death-denying. The two world wars and medical and economic advances are the major causes of our death denial. Death’s an inconvenient truth, and we avoid talking about it because it’s too painful. In a culture where we worship at the altar of success, losing people feels like failure.
 

We don’t even realise that we need to deal with grief, though it affects our lives so deeply.
 

We’re beginning to realise that change is needed, though, and there’s talk in the media about death, but this tends to be about preparing for death, not grief. We need to understand bereavement better — its profound impact on our physical and mental health — to help those left behind.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

Click below to read the @ChurchTimes interview with Roger Greene, Deputy CEO of @AtaLosscharity as he chats about his role,@thebereavementj, and his book Dancing When the Lights Go Out.https://t.co/0ynQ5bjVt3

— Loss and HOPE (@LossandHOPE1) October 11, 2024

Years before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Hamas’s leaders plotted a far deadlier wave of terrorist assaults against Israel — potentially including a Sept. 11-style toppling of a Tel Aviv skyscraper — while they pressed Iran to assist in helpingachieve their vision of annihilating the Jewish state, according to documents seized by Israeli forces in Gaza.

Electronic records and papers that Israeli officials say were recovered from Hamas command centers show advanced planning for attacks using trains, boats and even horse-drawn chariots — though several plans were ill-formed and highly impractical, terrorism experts said. The plans anticipate drawing in allied militant groups for a combined assault against Israel from the north, south and east.

The trove of documents includes an annotated, illustrated presentation detailing possible options for an assault as well as letters from Hamas to Iran’s top leaders in 2021 requesting hundreds of millions of dollars in funding and training for 12,000 additional Hamas fighters.It is unclear whether Iran knew of the planning document or responded to the letters, but Israeli officials view the requests as part of a larger effort by Hamas to draw its Iranian allies into the kind of direct confrontation with Israel that Tehran has traditionally sought to avoid.

The 59 pages of letters and planning documents in Arabic obtained by The Washington Post represent a fraction of the thousands of records that Israel Defense Forces say they have seizedsince Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza began Oct. 27

Read it all.

"Captured documents reveal Hamas’s broader ambition to wreak havoc on Israel" @washingtonpost Hamas wanted to do a lot more on October 7th. They were stopped by Israeli army, police, security and intelligence, and everyday civilians protecting their families, their nation.

-… pic.twitter.com/JZNgoWZMAn

— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) October 13, 2024

Why should countries care about shrinking populations at a time of climate change, increasing risk of nuclear catastrophe and the prospect of artificial intelligence taking over jobs? At a global level, there is no shortage of people. But drastically low birthrates can lead to problems in individual countries.

Tomáš Sobotka, one of the authors of the U.N. report and a deputy director at the Vienna Institute of Demography, does a back-of-the-envelope calculation to illustrate the point: In South Korea, which has the lowest birthrate in the world at 0.72 children per woman, just over a million babies were born in 1970. Last year, 230,000 were. It’s obviously too simple to say that each person born in 2023 will, in their prime working years, have to support four retired people. But in the absence of large-scale immigration, the matter will be “extremely difficult to organize and deal with for Korean society,” said Mr. Sobotka.

Similar concerns arise from Italy to the United States: working-age populations outnumbered by the elderly; towns emptying out; important jobs unfilled; business innovation faltering. Immigration could be a straightforward antidote, but in many of the countries with declining birthrates, accepting large numbers of immigrants has become politically toxic.

Across Europe, East Asia and North America, many governments are, like Japan, introducing measures like paid parental leave, child care subsidies and direct cash transfers. According to the U.N., the number of countries deliberately targeting birthrates rose from 19 in 1986 to 55 by 2015.

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Great piece by @motokorich on what governments can do to increase the birthrate, and how Japan's experiment doing this panned out. https://t.co/ZdaeJY3ZuO

— Noam Scheiber (@noamscheiber) October 14, 2024

The consumers powering U.S. economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder and likely enjoying a wealth effect from asset-price gains, according to research by Federal Reserve economists.

In the two pre-pandemic years, average household consumption was growing at a similar pace across all income groups, the new Fed study of retail spending shows. But since then, spending patterns have diverged sharply.

In the initial Covid period through mid-2021, low-income households increased spending faster than others with the help of public stimulus programs. But their consumption fell back after the last pandemic checks went out, while middle- and especially higher-income Americans have powered ahead. Overall, since the start of 2018, high-earning households raised spending more than twice as much as the low-income group. 

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The consumers powering US economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder, according to research by Fed economists https://t.co/ypEjW5Buyz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 11, 2024

Four years on, the data has astonished us – and reinforced our fears.

Our findings:  Boko Haram and ISWAP (the local ISIS group) carry out only a fraction of civilian killings:  just 10%.

A terror group unrecognised outside the country murders far more people

The Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) – a loose network of Fulani Islamist militias – are behind at least 39% of all civilian killings, and probably more.  Christian farmers are their special target.  ‘Land-based attacks’ – planned invasions of selected villages or homes, and occupation of the land  –  are their strategy.  Communities are chosen;  this is jihadist violence.

Overall, 2.7 Christians were killed for every Muslim killed in the data period.  Notably, Muslims are also terribly affected by the violence.  In states where the attacks occur, proportional loss to Christian communities is far higher.  In terms of local populations, 6.5 times as many Christians were murdered as Muslims.   As the charity Open Doors notes, a vast flight of poor Nigerians is now underway.

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Clarity from chaos: does the truth of Nigeria’s mass murders lie in data? @FdnLeah @Lord_Collins @AndrewmitchMP @USCIRF @RFInstitute https://t.co/r1u4IpkXPj

— Lord (David) Alton (@DavidAltonHL) October 2, 2024

The economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters say will influence their choice for president. It is the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, say the candidates’ positions on it are an “extremely important” influence on their vote. Another 38% of voters rate the economy as “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.

Voters view Donald Trump as better able than Kamala Harris to handle the economy, 54% versus 45%. Trump also has an edge on perceptions of his handling of immigration (+9 percentage points) and foreign affairs (+5), while Harris is seen as better on climate change (+26), abortion (+16) and healthcare (+10). The candidates are evenly matched on voters’ impressions of who would better address gun policy.

Just under half of voters overall agree with Trump (49%) or Harris (47%) on the issues that matter most to them.

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TV presenter and conservationist Chris Packham has led calls to the Church of England to commit to re-wilding 30 per cent of its land. 

The call is backed by high profile figures including former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, former cabinet minister Michael Gove, and actor and broadcaster Stephen Fry, as well as 100,000 members of the public. 

The campaign, by the Wild Card group, was launched on the steps of St Paul’s Cathedral in London, where Packham unravelled the ’95 Wild Theses’ – a spin on Martin Luther’s Ninety-five Theses that triggered the Protestant Reformation. 

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Chris Packham leads calls to rewild Church of England https://t.co/4f3SxzEfvE

— Sharon K. Gilbert (@sharonkgilbert) October 8, 2024

“Nuclear Nightmare,” screamed the headline in Time magazine on April 9th 1979. One of the two reactors at a nuclear-power plant at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania had suffered an accident. The governor ordered an evacuation of all vulnerable people within five miles of the plant as radioactive gas escaped.

In the end, the accident resulted in no injuries or loss of life. Two decades later, The Economist visited the Pennsylvania hinterlands and found the second, unproblematic reactor still running well and enjoying strong local support. It cranked out power until it was mothballed in 2019 owing not to safety concerns but to competition from cheap shale gas.

Now Three Mile Island is coming back from the dead. On September 20th Microsoft, a tech giant, and Constellation Energy, the utility that decommissioned the trouble-free reactor, signed a deal to return it to service. The utility will spend about $1.6bn to restore the plant by 2028. Microsoft will then buy its carbon-free power for the next 20 years.

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Great look at how Big Tech is leveraging its market power and analytics to shift more project risk onto renewable energy developers:https://t.co/n3MsUpHbnj

— Lee Harris (@leee_harris) October 8, 2024