A better known real estate debacle is a sprawling development in Seseña, south of Madrid, one of Spain’s “ghost towns.” It sits in a desert surrounded by empty lots. Twelve whole blocks of brick apartment buildings, about 2,000 apartments, are empty; the rest, only partly occupied. Most of the ground floor commercial space is bricked up.

The boom and bust of Spain’s property sector is astonishing. Over a decade, land prices rose about 500 percent and developers built hundreds of thousands of units ”” about 800,000 in 2007 alone. Developments sprang up on the outskirts of cities ready to welcome many of the four million immigrants who had settled in Spain, many employed in construction.

At the same time, coastal villages were transformed into major residential areas for vacationing Spaniards and retired, sun-seeking northern Europeans. At its peak, the construction sector accounted for 12 percent of Spain’s gross domestic product, double the level in Britain or France.

But almost overnight, the market disappeared….

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Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring risk on German, French and Dutch bonds have surged over recent days, rising significantly above the levels of non-EMU states in Scandinavia.

“Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself,” said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. “This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings.”

The refrain was picked up this week by German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. “We’re not swimming in money, we’re drowning in debts,” he told the Bundestag.

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There will be sovereign defaults in the eurozone, with a default by Greece now inevitable. Ultimately the thing that underpins any country’s debts is its ability to raise enough tax to service and eventually repay them. Greece cannot hope to do that. Ireland will be pushed to do so but probably can. I would, however, worry about the long-term credit-worthiness of Portugal, Spain and Italy.

So then you have to ask whether a default of a eurozone state breaks up the eurozone. I don’t think we know the answer to that yet. We do know that the Germans, who hold the cards, will do absolutely everything they can to stop such a default, even if they have to grit their teeth as they do so. My instinct is that a country defaulting would not of itself lead to that country leaving the euro, but if its costs and prices were totally out of line, that probably would be the least painful way of extracting itself. If that is right in the short-term, things will be patched up and the euro will come through this downturn intact. But the next downturn, in five or 10 years’ time? Surely not.

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Pope Benedict XVI has consecrated Antoni Gaudi’s unfinished church, the Sagrada Familia, as a basilica in the Spanish city of Barcelona.

The Pope sprinkled holy water on the altar before a congregation of more than 6,500 people.

Gaudi’s greatest work has been under construction for more than a century, and will not be finished before 2026.

The current chief architect said he hoped the Pope’s visit would provide the boost needed to finish the work.

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Congratulations to them.

The rebellion against the 1930s fiscal and monetary policies of the Euro-complex is gathering pace.

Il Sole has published a letter by 100 Italian economists warning that the austerity strategy imposed by Brussels/Frankfurt risks tipping Europe into a self-feeding downward spiral. Far from holding the eurozone together, it will cause weaker countries to be catapulted out of EMU. Others will leave in order to restore sovereign control over their central banks and unemployment policies.

At worst it will blow the EU apart, leading to the very acrimony that the European Project was supposed to prevent.

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Spain has upped the ante in a high-stakes poker game with Germany, pushing for the release of EU stress test results for major banks in a move that risks precipitiating a dramatic escalation of Europe’s financial crisis.

“We’re not afraid of transparency,” said the Spanish Banking Association (AEB), saying the full truth would put an end to rumours battering Spain’s instutitions. El Pais reported that the government backs the initiative, putting it on a collision course with Germany which insists on secrecy.

Josef Ackermann, head of Deutsche Bank, warned last week that it would be “very dangerous” to publish the results of each bank, fearing that it would trigger flight from weak lenders and set off a chain reaction.

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Spain isn’t supposed to lose to Switzerland.

Spain has never lost to Switzerland.

Perhaps Spanish goalkeeper Iker Casillas believed that would last forever just a little too much.

In a 1-0 loss, it was his peculiarly complacent misjudgment that heaped the pressure of a billion expectations on a team that, for many, was the pre-tournament favorite.

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Heavy rain hampered an evening rally through the city’s streets.

Spanish unions said 75-80% of public sector workers had joined the day-long strike.

The labour ministry, however, put the figure at 16%.

“We are very angry because this is not only an attack to our rights and to our salaries – there is an attack to the welfare,” protester Elisia Deoran told the BBC.

“It’s an attack on all the public services.”

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Josep Antoni Duran y Lleida, who leads the Convergence and Union coalition, said he abstained and saved the government only out of a sense of duty to Spain.

“I don’t want Spain to be helped out like Greece,” Duran y Lleida said. But he added that Zapatero’s time was running out and joined the Popular Party in calling for early elections before those scheduled in 2012.

The emergency measures cut public sector wages an average of 5 percent beginning in June, froze the wages and then froze most retirement pensions in 2011.

On Wednesday, Zapatero said Spain would also introduce a new tax for the country’s highest-income earners, trying to stave off criticism that only low-income workers were being targeted by the cutbacks.

Earlier this week, lawmakers in both chambers cut their base salaries by 10 percent while municipal governments announced pay cuts up to 15 percent for mayors and other local officials.

Talk about a slim vote margin–read it all.

With the sudden drop in construction here, jobs disappeared. This shows another problem with a growth model built on construction: Employment swings up and down dramatically.

Professor JOAQUIN ARANGO (Director, Center for the Study of Migration and Citizenship, Ortega y Gasset Foundation): The Spanish economy is labor intensive.

GJELTEN: Joaquin Arango, of the Ortega y Gasset Foundation, points out that the economic boom in Spain brought more people into the workforce but mostly in low skill areas, like construction. A lot of the jobs could be filled by foreign-born workers. Arango, a sociologist, has documented the surge in the immigrant population that began with the economic boon in the last 1990s.

Prof. ARANGO: As a percentage of the population, at the beginning of that period, was two and a half percent or so. And now it is over 12 percent.

GJELTEN: Thats dramatic.

Prof. ARANGO: Yeah, spectacular.

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[SUSIE] GHARIB: Let me begin by just asking you what are the risks of all these events, that Spanish bailout, the debt crisis in Greece, the falling euro? What’s the intact and the risk of all of that to American businesses and our economy?

[MOHAMED] EL-ERIAN [CEO of PIMCO]: Susie, we went into the weekend knowing that Europe had a debt issue and Europe had a growth issue. And we come out of the weekend with the news that Europe may also have a banking system issue. The minute you bring in the banking system, it’s like an amplifier, something that we discovered in this country a couple of years ago. Banks have a way of amplifying shocks in the system because banks are like the oil in your car. They link up so many different parts. And the problem for the U.S. is that not only is it going to have to cope with a growth issue out of Europe. Europe is an important export market. We sell a lot to Europe. Europe is going to grow less, but now the strains in the banking system. And the minute you introduce strains in the banking system, there’s always a fear that governments will be behind the curve and that you can get contagion. You can get widespread disruptions. And that’s what we started to price in today.

GHARIB: In terms of American banks that have just been coming out of our own financial crisis, how exposed are U.S. banks to what’s going on in the European banking system?

EL-ERIAN: They are not as exposed to the European banks as they are to each other but we are all exposed to the global banking system. Banks are very inter-linked. And the minute you start having disruptions, the minute the flow through the pipes starts to be interrupted, then everybody suffers. And the concern is that Europe’s banking system may come under pressure.

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If the trouble starts — and it remains an “if” — the trigger may well be obscure to the concerns of most Americans: a missed budget projection by the Spanish government, the failure of Greece to hit a deficit-reduction target, a drop in Ireland’s economic output.

But the knife-edge psychology currently governing global markets has put the future of the U.S. economic recovery in the hands of politicians in an assortment of European capitals. If one or more fail to make the expected progress on cutting budgets, restructuring economies or boosting growth, it could drain confidence in a broad and unsettling way. Credit markets worldwide could lock up and throw the global economy back into recession.

For the average American, that seemingly distant sequence of events could translate into another hit on the 401(k) plan, a lost factory shift if exports to Europe decline and another shock to the banking system that might make it harder to borrow.

“If what happened in Greece were to happen in a large country, it could fundamentally mark our times,” Angelos Pangratis, head of the European Union delegation to the United States, said Friday after a panel discussion on the crisis in Greece sponsored by the Greater Washington Board of Trade.

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SPIEGEL: So, what was in danger? Just the banks? The euro? The European Union?

Trichet: We are now experiencing severe tensions, which are coming after the events of 2007-2008. At that time, private institutions and markets were about to collapse completely. That triggered a very bold and comprehensive financial support by governments. And now we see the signature of some governments put into question. This is a problem for almost all industrialized countries. In the G-7, the major economies have a yearly deficit of around 10 percent of gross domesitc product (GDP). In the euro area as a whole it averages 7 percent of GDP. In this situation with extremely elevated deficits across the globe, the markets have singled out a weak link: Greece. Also taking into account the fact that its statistics were incorrect at one time, market pressure was concentrated there and a drastic adjustment program was necessary.

SPIEGEL: Apparently it was not only Greece that came under attack. Portugal was next …

Trichet: In the market, there is always a danger of contagion — like the contagion we saw among the private institutions in 2008. And it can occur quickly. Sometimes it is a question of half days. This is an issue for the industrialized world as a whole….

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“We have not relented on our principles,” Mr. [Jean-Claude] Trichet told Der Spiegel, the German newsmagazine, according to a transcript on the bank’s Web site. “Price stability is our primary mandate and compass.”

And in an interview broadcast on Sunday, the U.S. Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, signaled his confidence that Europe would resolve its debt crisis and that the American economy would withstand its impact. “Europe has the capacity to manage through this,” Mr. Geithner told Bloomberg Television. “And I think they will.”

As investors absorb the details ”” and the potential weaknesses ”” of the $1 trillion European rescue plan, Mr. Geithner seemed to be trying to draw a sharp, if implicit, contrast to remarks last week from another senior economic adviser to President Barack Obama, Paul A. Volcker. Mr. Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman, startled some investors when he spoke of a possible “disintegration” of the euro zone ”” a striking shift from his expressions of confidence of only two months earlier.

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Put yourself in the position of a holder of Greek government debt a few years out, just prior to a probable default. Anticipating a default, you would liquidate the bonds to a level that reflects the likelihood of incomplete recovery. Working backward, and given the anticipated recovery projected by a variety of ratings services and economists, one would require an estimated annual coupon approaching 20% in order to accept the default risk. For European governments and the IMF to accept a yield of only 5% is to implicitly provide the remainder as a non-recourse subsidy. Even then, investors are unlikely to be willing to roll over existing debt when it matures – the May 19th roll-over is the first date Europe hopes to get past using bailout funds. In the event Greece fails to bring its budget significantly into balance, ongoing membership as one of the euro-zone countries implies ongoing subsidies from other countries, many of which are also running substantial deficits. This would eventually be intolerable. If investors are at all forward looking, the window of relief about Greece (and the euro more generally) is likely to be much shorter than 18 months.

Still, for Greece, it appears that the IMF and EU will provide the funding for the May 19th rollover of Greece’s debt, so there’s some legitimate potential for short-term relief. The larger problem is that Portugal and Spain are also running untenable deficits (think of Greece as the Bear Stearns of Euro-area countries). European officials deny the possibility of contagion that might call for additional bailouts, but my impression is that Greece is the focus because its debt is the closest to rollover. The attempt to cast Greece as unique is a bit strained – Christine LaGarde, the French finance minister suggested last week “Greece was a special case because it reported special numbers, provided funny statistics.” In other words, Greece gets the bailout because it had the most misleading accounting?

The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally.

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We often say that investors can be bullish, bearish, or not enough of either. “Our debt is clean, we will not have to ask for help,” said Elena Salgado, Spain’s finance minister, on April 30th, appealing to the bulls. That is, if there are any bulls left in sovereign debt.

Currently, there is no shortage of bearish sentiment regarding global sovereign debt issues. In recent weeks, Greece, Portugal, and Spain have all had their credit ratings downgraded, with Greece taking on junk status. Yet despite this flurry of negative news, I would submit that investors are still not bearish enough, particularly on Spain.

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The euro is under attack like never before, as the promises on which it was based turn out to be lies. Hedge funds are speculating against Greek debt, while euro-zone politicians work behind the scenes to cobble together rescue packages. But fundamental flaws in the monetary union need to be fixed if Europe’s common currency is to survive.

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It was announced this week that the Pope will visit Spain in November. The news comes during a tense phase in Church-State relations after the Spanish Senate approved a new abortion law on 25 February. It is the latest round in a battle that the secularising government seems to be winning

Last year an estimated one million people demonstrated in Madrid when the proposals to liberalise the abortion law became public. Now that it looks set to become law, the Spanish bishops’ conference has approved a new campaign of protest marches by pro-lifers ”“ describing the proposals as a “licence to kill” children, and an attack on the institution of the family. “This law gives a sealed envelope to a woman to sort herself out, and frees the father of any responsibility,” declared the conference’s spokesman, Bishop Juan Antonio Martínez Camino.

In a country where a majority of the population still identifies itself more or less as Catholic, one would have thought that this is one issue Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero would be advised not to pick a fight over. In fact, Zapatero appears to have taken on the bishops over an issue that alone is unlikely to threaten his political survival.

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Last year it was banks; this year it is countries. The economic crisis, which seemed to have eased off in the latter part of 2009, is once again in full swing as the threat of sovereign default looms.

Europe’s leaders are struggling to avert the biggest financial disaster in the euro’s 11-year history…. This week all eyes have been on Greece. If it defaults, it will be the first EU member to do so. As The Economist went to press EU leaders were meeting to discuss what to do, and there was talk of a German-led rescue scheme. If it happens, other European candidates may be queueing up. Bond markets are worried about the capacity of Spain (see article), Ireland and Portugal to repay their debts, forcing these countries to increase taxes and cut spending, even as they remain mired in recession.

Europe’s troubles have given investors good reason to worry; but they are not the only cause for concern.

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Last week I was in a thunderstorm in Medina del Campo when I read about Pope Benedict’s offer to accommodate some Anglican practices of those who wanted to join the Roman Catholic Church. I don’t want now to go on about the substance of the affair. What still intrigues me is the cultural incomprehension I found.

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“Do we appreciate the priesthood and love our priests?” the bishop asked in a posting on the Web site of his dioceses.

To answer this question, the bishop composed — “with a bit of humor” — the following test titled “Priestly Appreciation.” The test is complete with instructions to evaluate your answers and your level of appreciation for the priesthood.

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Sir Alex Ferguson conceded that Manchester United performed poorly last night after his dream of becoming the first manager to retain the Champions League perished at the hands of an outstanding Barcelona team who made history of their own.

Goals in each half, from Samuel Eto’o and Lionel Messi, were enough to give Pep Guardiola’s side a 2-0 victory that their performance merited, making them the first Spanish club to complete a treble of league, domestic cup and European Cup.

However, while Ferguson had the good grace to acknowledge that Barcelona deserved to win, he is likely to be infuriated to learn that his tactics were criticised by Cristiano Ronaldo. “We only had ten minutes [on top] and then we never found ourselves again,” the United forward said. “We were not well, the tactics were not good and everything went wrong.”

Congratulations to Barcelona. I was disappointed with Man U.’s performance. After a strong start by Ronaldo, they looked dazed when their opponents scored. Read it all—KSH.

More than four million Spanish people are out of work. According to the country’s National Statistics Institute a record high figure of 17.4 per cent were unemployed in the first quarter of the year.

Unemployment leapt from 13.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the biggest quarterly jump since 1976. Joblessness in Spain has almost doubled in a year.

The Bank of Spain had previously forecast that unemployment would not surpass 17.1 per cent for the year. Alarmingly, 1,068,400 families have every member out of work.

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Spain is on course to ease its restrictive law on abortion, setting the stage for another clash between a Socialist government that has already introduced sweeping social changes and conservatives and Catholic clergy bent on preserving traditional family values.

A parliamentary committee took the first step this week, recommending that the government legalize early stage abortions, while gradually imposing more restrictions as pregnancies progress.

Abortion is technically a crime in Spain, though it is readily available under the current system, with women needing a doctor’s certification that their health ”” either physical or mental ”” would be at risk if the pregnancy was allowed to proceed.

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