Category : Economy

(NYT) With Taxes and Tariffs in Place, Trump Takes Reins of U.S. Economy

His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway.

With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.

Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.

Last week, the president enacted a sprawling set of tax cuts that he believes to be the ingredients for rapid economic growth, even as fiscal experts warned that the law may injure the poor while putting the U.S. government on a risky new fiscal path.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, President Donald Trump

(NYT) Which Workers Will A.I. Hurt Most: The Young or the Experienced?

Some experts argue that A.I. is most likely to affect novice workers, whose tasks are generally simplest and therefore easiest to automate. Dario Amodei, the chief executive of the A.I. company Anthropic, recently told Axios that the technology could cannibalize half of all entry-level white-collar roles within five years. An uptick in the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has aggravated this concern, even if it doesn’t prove that A.I. is the cause of their job-market struggles.

But other captains of the A.I. industry have taken the opposite view, arguing that younger workers are likely to benefit from A.I. and that experienced workers will ultimately be more vulnerable. In an interview at a New York Times event in late June, Brad Lightcap, the chief operating officer of OpenAI, suggested that the technology could pose problems for “a class of worker that I think is more tenured, is more oriented toward a routine in a certain way of doing things.”

The ultimate answer to this question will have vast implications. If entry-level jobs are most at risk, it could require a rethinking of how we educate college students, or even the value of college itself. And if older workers are most at risk, it could lead to economic and even political instability as large-scale layoffs become a persistent feature of the labor market.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology

(Economist) How America’s economy is dodging disaster

Zooming in on the prices of affected categories at a few large retailers, Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School and co-authors do discern some slight price rises in both imported goods and their domestically produced competitors (see chart 2). However, such prices have risen by only a percent or two—a far smaller increase than that seen in tariffs. America’s effective tariff rate is now at 12%, according to calculations by the Tax Foundation, a think-tank, its highest in nearly a century. Reverting to Mr Trump’s initial Liberation Day offering would mean a significant step up.

Oddly, though, tariffs may be pushing down prices via another mechanism—by taking a toll on the economy. The Liberation Day drama crushed consumer confidence, possibly softening demand. Until recently, this has been evident only in “soft” data (surveys and the like). Now signs of it are starting to appear in “hard” data, too. A recent release showed that household spending fell month-to-month in May. Employment figures for June were strong, but bolstered by government hiring, especially of teachers. Those for the private sector were lower than expected.

A running estimate of GDP, produced by the Fed’s Atlanta branch, suggests that its core components (private investment and consumption) have fallen from an annualised growth rate of 2-3% at the start of the second quarter to 1% now (see chart 3). Goldman Sachs, a bank, has compared the latest data to previous “event driven” shocks that led to recessions, and found that today’s slowdown is roughly in line with the historical norm.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Economy

(Economist) Does working from home kill company culture?

But on other measures, firms that were strict on office time scored worse than more relaxed ones (see chart). Firms with five-day mandates received lower marks from employees for supportiveness (whether employees feel like their bosses care about them), quality of leadership, toxicity (the extent to which disrespectful behaviour is tolerated in the workplace), candour and work-life balance. (On the three other measures tracked by CultureX, the companies did not score meaningfully better or worse.)

The analysis has its limitations. In particular, it could also be the case that companies which care less about supporting employees or rooting out toxic behaviour are less inclined to heed workers’ pleas for more flexibility. Even so, the results are suggestive. “Companies that really score highly on agility—NVIDIA, SpaceX, Tesla—tend to strike a deal with their employees,” says Don Sull (who is also a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management). Employees are offered generous pay, great career opportunities and other perks. “But the trade-off is the work-life balance tends to be really bad.”

More than five years after the pandemic, companies are still trying to find the right mix of in-person and remote work. As labour markets cool, shifting power from employees to employers, bosses may be tempted to demand more office time, claiming that it will help corporate culture. For firms that prize agility, this makes sense. But the data suggest it comes a cost.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market

(Gallup) AI Use at Work Has Nearly Doubled in Two Years

The use of AI at work is accelerating. In the past two years, the percentage of U.S. employees who say they have used AI in their role a few times a year or more has nearly doubled, from 21% to 40%. Frequent AI use (a few times a week or more) has also nearly doubled, from 11% to 19% since Gallup’s first measure in 2023. Daily use has doubled in the past 12 months alone, from 4% to 8%.

AI adoption has increased primarily for white-collar roles. Twenty-seven percent of white-collar employees report frequently using AI at work, an increase of 12 percentage points since 2024. The industries with the highest percentages of frequent AI users include technology (50%), professional services (34%) and finance (32%).

In comparison, reported frequent AI use by production and front-line workers has remained essentially flat for the past two years, shifting from 11% in 2023 to 9% in 2025.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology

(Barrons) Your July 4th Burgers Will Be Pricey. Maybe Grill Pork Chops Instead.

Beef prices are sizzling, just in time for that favorite national pastime on July 4: grilling, barbecuing, and picnicking to celebrate U.S. independence.

But economic uncertainty has shaken up consumers this summer season. This year, total spending for Fourth of July festivities dropped 5.3% from last year to $8.9 billion, according to survey data from the National Retail Federation. Of the people surveyed, 61% will participate in cookouts, picnics and barbecues, down 5% from last year.

Pricier hamburgers could be one factor discouraging some Americans from opening their doors for an annual cookout.

The average price of ground beef rose 11.5% to $6.25 a pound in May from a year earlier, according to consumer price index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly price of ground beef has shot up 31% since 2020, based on 2025 data through May.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Consumer/consumer spending, Dieting/Food/Nutrition, Economy

(Economist) Trumponomics 2.0 will erode the foundations of America’s prosperity

…the One Big Beautiful Bill act (BBB) that passed the Senate on July 1st and the House on July 3rd looks more like traditional tax-cutting, spending-slashing Republicanism worthy of Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney than it does a MAGA fantasy. Suddenly, business leaders are again willing to see Mr Trump as the populist from his first term: a man to be taken seriously but not literally.

Unfortunately, the BBB, which Mr Trump plans to sign into law on July 4th, is likely to cast a shadow over this sunny picture. It illustrates the long-term damage Mr Trump is doing to the foundations of America’s economy.

The bill’s main effect is to extend the tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term which were due to expire. Republicans paint this as an extension of the status quo. Yet they, like the Democrats before them, ignore the fact that the status quo is unsustainable. Over the past 12 months America’s budget deficit has been an astonishing 6.7% of GDP. If the bill passes, the deficit will remain around that level and the country’s debt-to-gdp ratio will in about two years exceed the 106% reached after the second world war. Revenue from tariffs will help, but not enough to stop the ratio rising—meaning that the drift towards crisis will continue.

To the extent the bill tightens the belt, it does so in the wrong places. As life expectancies rise and the population ages, America should trim handouts to the old, for example by raising the retirement age. Instead, pensioners are getting a tax break and Republicans are cutting Medicaid, health insurance for the hard-up. Some sensible measures include reducing the ability of states to game the system for more federal cash. Yet according to official projections, the overall effect will be to add nearly 12m to the number of Americans without health insurance. That is a scandalous number for the world’s richest big country. Many of those who lose coverage will fall foul of new requirements that recipients must work. Such rules have in the past created an obstacle course of paperwork for claimants while failing to boost employment.

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Posted in Budget, House of Representatives, Medicaid, Medicare, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Senate, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Economist) Looking at the Content of the Senate Tax and Budget bill passed today

In the days leading up to the final vote, the CRFB assessed that the measure would add between $3trn and $4trn to the deficit. It includes a smorgasbord of tax cuts whose fiscal effects are only partially offset by other reforms. The tax cuts include Mr Trump’s campaign promises to remove tax on tips and overtime pay. In theory those are temporary and will elapse when Mr Trump leaves office. In practice, once taxes are cut they often stay cut (as Republicans’ new accounting method implies). The bill would also set up “Trump accounts” for newborns, including one-off payments to new parents for the next three years. It would give big boosts to spending by the Department of Defence and to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which the administration wants so that it can increase the number of people deported from America.

Modelling the effects of any legislation on economic growth is hard. But the tax cuts should provide a small boost in the short term. That might help to explain the current exuberance of the stockmarkets. Over a longer timeframe the picture is different (see chart 3). The House’s original bill would shrink America’s GDP by 2% by 2050, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, a research centre. That mainly reflects the impact of a bigger debt load leading to higher interest rates, which squeeze the private sector. Some other forecasters are more optimistic, thinking that the tax cuts will push more workers into the jobs market and incentivise investment, offsetting that impact.

America’s debt surged after the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the covid-19 pandemic. The ratio of debt to GDP is already close to the level reached after the second world war. By extending tax cuts that were set to lapse, without offsetting savings, the OBBB will drive it higher still. According to the CRFB, the Senate’s version as of June 30th would push debt to between 125% and 130% of GDP by 2034—well above the 117% forecast if the 2017 tax cuts were allowed to expire, and higher even than the 124% expected under the House bill….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Budget, Economy, Medicaid, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Senate, Taxes, The National Deficit

(Economist Leader) How the defence bonanza will reshape the global economy

For the first time in decades, the rich world is embarking on mass rearmament. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the threat of conflict over Taiwan and President Donald Trump’s impulsive approach to alliances have all made bolstering national defence an urgent priority. On June 25th members of NATO agreed to raise their target for military spending to 3.5% of gdp, and allocated an extra 1.5% to security-related items (Spain insisted on a loophole). If they achieve that target in 2035, they will be spending $800bn more every year, in real terms, than they did before Russia invaded Ukraine. The boom goes wider than NATO. By one estimate, embattled Israel splurged more than 8% of its gdp on defence last year. Even doveish Japan plans to stump up.

Such vast sums could reshape the global economy, by squeezing public finances and shifting activity within countries. As politicians sell the benefits of rearmament to voters, many will claim that military spending will bring economic gains as well as security. Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister, promises defence will offer “the next generation of good, secure, well-paid jobs”. The European Commission says it will bring “benefits for all countries”. However tempting politically, such arguments are wrong. Using defence spending for economic objectives would be a costly mistake.

The most obvious economic consequence of bigger defence budgets will be to strain public finances. Debts are already high and the financial pressures on governments, caused by ageing populations and higher interest rates, are mounting. The average nato member, excluding America, will need to raise annual defence spending by 1.5% of gdp.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Defense, National Security, Military, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(Economist) China is trying to win over Africa in the global trade war

At China Mall , a vast supermarket in Kampala, Uganda’s capital, Rose Ahurra picks up a small turquoise squirrel. The toy flashes as she puts it in a trolley laden with towels, clothes, containers and an air fryer. The purchases indicate her place in the Ugandan middle class, which has flocked to China Mall since it opened earlier this year. “The prices are fair and I no longer have to go to lots of individual shops,” she explains.

But the floors of mostly Chinese goods also hint at an imbalance that worries African policymakers. Total trade between China and Africa was worth $296bn in 2024. Yet the value of what China exported west ($179bn) was much higher than what Africa sent east ($117bn). This year, partly as a result of the state support China is giving to its factories to boost the domestic economy, Chinese exports to the continent are on track to be 12% higher. African countries have long asked Beijing to make it easier to trade the other way, too. Many will have welcomed China’s announcement on June 12th that it will grant duty-free access to products from every African country except Eswatini, a tiny kingdom that recognises Taiwan.

The immediate impact may be minimal. But the policy could integrate African economies more deeply into Chinese-centred supply chains as the global economy is fragmenting. Geopolitically, China’s move is as subtle as a flashing turquoise squirrel. After 25 years America is set to end its own duty-free deal with Africa when the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires on September 30th. It is imposing tariffs willy-nilly, slashing aid and banning African migrants. For its biggest competitor, that is an opportunity.

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Posted in Africa, China, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Politics in General

(Barrons) After the USA strikes in Iran, where do we go from here?

There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.

First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.

Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.

Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

Church of the Good Shepherd, Charleston, SC, announces the purchase of new property

“Every good gift and every perfect gift is from above, coming down from the
Father of lights, with whom there is no variation or shadow due to change.”
James 1:17

Brothers and Sisters,

On April 20, 2021 the Supreme Court of South Carolina released a verdict which set us on a course of great change and uncertainty. Two years later, after filing an unsuccessful request for rehearing we were forced to vacate our home on MilesDrive. Since then we have been a tabernacling people.

Following God’s lead towards a new land that we believed he would show us, we have been blessed to
find a temporary dwelling place on the campus of Northbridge Baptist. Shortly after we lost our property, a kind and wonderful soul approached me with a simple offer. This friend of Good Shepherd told me, “we must find a new home for Good Shepherd, and I’m willing to help make it happen.”


In the two years that have past, this individual and a few others have made pledges and sizable contributions towards the acquisition of a new home. These contributions made it possible for your vestry to pursue several potential locations, most of which have not panned out. But the tide seems to be turning. I am ecstatic to report to you that as of Wednesday, May 21 we are under contract to purchase 2.7 acres of land in the heart of West Ashley. Just a stones throw from where we have made our home in West Ashley since leaving the peninsula of Charleston in 1974, this property is located at 1231 Fuseler Drive. It is embedded in what we have long considered our core area of ministry, and walking or biking distance to the homes of a good number of Good Shepherd faithful, including your rector.

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Posted in * Anglican - Episcopal, * South Carolina, Housing/Real Estate Market, Parish Ministry

(Washington Post) Most new cars in Norway are EVs. How a freezing country beat range anxiety

Norway is “an unlikely place for a transportation revolution,” acknowledged Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association.

At the Skoda dealership in Alta, Finnmark’s largest city, salesman Orjan Dragland marveled at the transformation — how five years ago, every car on the showroom floor had a combustion engine, and now the inventory is all EVs.

In 2024, nearly 90 percent of new passenger cars sold in Norway were fully electric. Of the cars sold last month, the EV share was 97 percent.

By comparison, EVs last year accounted for 8 percent of new car sales in the United States, 13 percent in the euro zone and 27 percent in China.

“What happened” in Norway? Dragland said. “The government happened.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Ecology, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Norway, Travel

Jerri Savuto–Easter Memories: Escaping the Commercial Trap

As I am in the US for the first time in many years, I find myself longing for the simplicity of Maua, Kenya, during Easter time. There Easter has none of the commercial trappings we find here. As I enter grocery stores, discount stores, and department stores I am shocked at the amount of space taken by the Easter candy, bunnies and stuffed animals, baskets, decorations, and new spring clothing. These items take more space than any grocery store has for all their goods in Maua.

I recently read that an estimated $2 billion will be spent on Easter candy this year in the US. Two billion dollars to celebrate the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ, who asked us to feed the hungry, clothe the naked, give water to the thirsty, house the homeless, care for the sick and imprisoned, and welcome the stranger.

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Posted in Consumer/consumer spending, Easter, Religion & Culture, Theology

(NYT) Data Centers’ Hunger for Energy Could Raise All Electric Bills

Individuals and small business have been paying more for power in recent years, and their electricity rates may climb higher still.

That’s because the cost of the power plants, transmission lines and other equipment that utilities need to serve data centers, factories and other large users of electricity is likely to be spread to everybody who uses electricity, according to a new report.

The report by Wood MacKenzie, an energy research firm, examined 20 large power users. In almost all of those cases, the firm found, the money that large energy users paid to electric utilities would not be enough to cover the cost of the equipment needed to serve them. The rest of the costs would be borne by other utility customers or the utility itself.

The utilities “either need to socialize the cost to other ratepayers or absorb that cost — essentially, their shareholders would take the hit,” said Ben Hertz-Shargel, who is the global head of grid edge research for Wood MacKenzie.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Personal Finance, Science & Technology

(NYT) Why Do More Police Officers Die by Suicide Than in the Line of Duty?

Matthew Hunter woke up disoriented, his cheek against concrete. He looked around and saw a rectangular bench, a camera and a toilet. There was no window. He sat up and noticed what he was wearing: cargo shorts and a Mötley Crüe T-shirt, same as the night before. Socks but no shoes.

Hunter, who had been an officer in the Des Moines Police Department for 21 years, was on the wrong side of a cell door. He searched his memory, straining to make sense of how he got there, but found only fragments. Long stretches of the previous night had gone dark. He remembered arriving at a relative’s house in his Chevy Silverado pickup truck, walking inside with his wife for a family celebration. He recalled finishing a bottle of Jack Daniel’s. He would learn more about what happened later from body-camera footage and police reports, which said he tried to drive off in his truck, insulted officers, called them “podunk” and worse, banged his head against the side of a police van, threatened a jail guard, collapsed on the ground and wept inconsolably.

He had been in trouble long before that night. Hunter, who was 45 and recently promoted to sergeant, had been spiraling for months, ever since his best friend died by suicide. Hunter and Joe Morgan had been paired up as partners early in their careers, patrolling the mostly blue-collar neighborhoods of the city’s east side. Morgan was a couple of years older and more seasoned; he previously worked at a smaller agency and served as chief in a town of 500 before joining Des Moines, the state’s largest Police Department. The two men clicked instantly and became close. Both fanatical Minnesota Vikings fans, they found much to commiserate about during football seasons. When it snowed, they wore matching hats with furry flaps covering their ears.

On Sept. 16, 2020, Hunter was in his bedroom, changing out of his uniform, preparing to help his wife make dinner for their three children, when he received a call. “Joe Morgan just killed himself,” a sergeant told him. Hunter didn’t believe it at first. If he had been asked to name cops who might hurt themselves, his friend would not have been on the list.

He climbed into his truck and drove five minutes through the suburbs to Morgan’s home, parking on a quiet street with tidy lawns. He walked past a dozen patrol cars and approached the crime-scene tape that circled his friend’s driveway. He had ducked beneath yellow tape hundreds of times in his career, but that night he felt his pace slow, as a familiar act suddenly became filled with foreboding. He approached the officers crowded around Morgan’s S.U.V., peered between them, then stepped closer. He saw Morgan lying on his back, his shirt removed. One of his flip-flops, left behind as officers had dragged him out of the driver’s seat, dangled from the S.U.V.’s running board. There was a dark hole in his friend’s chest.

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Posted in Anthropology, Ethics / Moral Theology, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Pastoral Theology, Police/Fire, Psychology, Stress, Suicide, Theology, Violence

(NYT front page) Tariffs of 10% Now Seem Low But Can Still Batter Economy 

When Donald J. Trump championed the idea of a 10 percent blanket tariff during the campaign, many people, whether for or against, were taken aback by how radical the idea was.

Alarms sounded about higher inflation, lost jobs, slower growth or recession. The prospect seemed so outlandish that most economists and Wall Street analysts who gamed out the possibilities tended to treat a 10 percent tariff simply as a bargaining tool.

Now, after a rapid-fire series of announcements from the White House that promised, imposed, reversed, delayed, decreased and increased tariffs, the 10 percent solution is looking like the most temperate choice rather than the most revolutionary, especially now that a red-hot trade war between China and the United States is blazing.

Yet 10 percent tariffs have not lost their sting.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) US Economy to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away

The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.

Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.

Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) In the US-China Trade War, Can China dent the USA’s safe-haven status?

One dangerous card that China’s got is its $760 billion holdings in Treasury securities. The country is the US’s second-largest foreign creditor after Japan.

Last week, the 10-year yield jumped by 50 basis points to 4.49%, the biggest weekly surge since 2001. Some of the sharpest moves were occurring during Asian hours, prompting speculation that Beijing was in the market. Will China weaponize and dump its holdings?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brushed this fear aside. In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, he talked about the beauty of being the world’s biggest borrower. “If you take a bank loan, the bank is in charge, they can repossess whatever you borrowed against. But if you take a big enough loan, you’re kind of in charge of the bank,” he said.

While that’s true in a distressed scenario, the dynamic doesn’t quite work here. Trump’s abrupt tariff U-turn exposed the White House’s Achilles’ heel: He blinked and paused hikes on all nations except China — after watching US sovereign bonds tank.

After all, Bessent, who’s now spearheading tariff negotiations, requires a stable bond market to sell into….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(NYT) China’s Halt of Critical Minerals Poses Risk for U.S. Military Programs

On Air Force fighter jets, magnets made of rare earth minerals that are mined or processed in China are needed to start the engines and provide emergency power.

On precision-guided ballistic missiles favored by the Army, magnets containing Chinese rare earth materials rotate the tail fins that allow missiles to home in on small or moving targets. And on new electric and battery-powered drones being adapted by Marines, rare earth magnets are irreplaceable in the compact electric motors.

China’s decision to retaliate against President Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs by ordering restrictions on the exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets is a warning shot across the bow of American national security, industry and defense experts said.

In announcing that it will now require special export licenses for six heavy rare earth metals, which are refined entirely in China, as well as rare earth magnets, 90 percent of which are produced in China, Beijing has reminded the Pentagon — if, indeed, it needed reminding — that a wide swath of American weaponry is dependent on China.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(Church Times) Treasury warned of ‘devastating’ consequences for churches if LPWG [Listed Places of Worship Grant] scheme ends

Churches are much more than buildings, and the Listed Places of Worship Grant (LPWG) Scheme is “beyond vital” to ensure that they can continue to be at the heart of communities, the Christian Funders’ Forum (CFF) has warned the Government.

These buildings are also often of significant architectural value, the CFF, a group of 50 grant-making charities say. They award grants totalling £70 million a year.

Churches such as St Michael-le-Belfrey, York, and St Mary Magdalene’s, Newark (News, 14 March, 4 April), where significant repair and restoration projects were already well advanced when the £25,000 cap on VAT exemption for repairs was announced in January, have been dismayed by the shortfalls in funding with which they are now confronted (News, 28 March).

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Posted in Church of England, England / UK, Ethics / Moral Theology, Housing/Real Estate Market, Politics in General, Religion & Culture, Stewardship, Taxes

(Bloomberg) As Markets Sank and Soared, a New Fear About America Itself Spread Across Wall Street

Serious questions now exist around the wisdom of owning American assets that until recently were the envy of a risk-obsessed world.

Amid the manic moves, key trading patterns even bear soft echoes with emerging markets. All told, fear is spreading that Trump’s bid to rewrite the terms of global trade risks imperiling America’s privileged status in the financial system.

“You honestly feel like you’re seeing stuff wrong sometimes. You have to check the scaling on your graphs because prices are moving so quickly,” said Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura Securities International Inc. “It’s just a constant stream of bells and popups on the desks right now. Automated messages like risk limits and risk alerts. It’s maximum overstimulation, maximum dopamine saturation.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, Globalization, President Donald Trump, Psychology, Stock Market, The U.S. Government

(NYT Magazine) The Panic Industry Boom

Fortifying the American home has become big business, selling escape tunnels, secret arsenals and even flammable moats. 

Ron Hubbard, the chief executive of Atlas Survival Shelters, runs one of many companies that designs and builds bunkers for wealthy clients. His business is booming.

A 2023 survey found that about one-third of American adults were prepping for a doomsday scenario, spending a collective $11 billion over 12 months.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Eschatology, Housing/Real Estate Market

(FA) Adam Posen-Trade Wars are Easy to Lose

In short, the U.S. economy will suffer enormously in a large-scale trade war with China, which the current levels of Trump-imposed tariffs, at more than 100 percent, surely constitute if left in place. In fact, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates. The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough, but it’s in fact putting the U.S. economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation.

The United States will face shortages of critical inputs ranging from basic ingredients of most pharmaceuticals to inexpensive semiconductors used in cars and home appliances to critical minerals for industrial processes including weapons production. The supply shock from drastically reducing or zeroing out imports from China, as Trump purports to want to achieve, would mean stagflation, the macroeconomic nightmare seen in the 1970s and during the COVID pandemic, when the economy shrank and inflation rose simultaneously. In such a situation, which may be closer at hand than many think, the Federal Reserve and fiscal policymakers are left with only terrible options and little chance of staving off unemployment except by further raising inflation.

When it comes to real war, if you have reason to be afraid of being invaded, it would be suicidal to provoke your adversary before you’ve armed yourself. That is essentially what Trump’s economic attack risks: given that the U.S. economy is entirely dependent on Chinese sources for vital goods (pharmaceutical stocks, cheap electronic chips, critical minerals), it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade. By doing it the other way around, the administration is inviting exactly the kind of damage it says it wants to prevent.

This could all be intended as just a negotiating tactic, Trump’s and Bessent’s repeated statements and actions notwithstanding. But even on those terms, the strategy will do more harm than good. As I warned in Foreign Affairs last October, the fundamental problem with Trump’s economic approach is that it would need to carry out enough self-harming threats to be credible, which means that markets and households would expect ongoing uncertainty. Americans and foreigners alike would invest less rather than more in the U.S. economy, and they would no longer trust the U.S. government to live up to any deal, making a negotiated settlement or agreement to deescalate difficult to achieve. As a result, U.S. productive capacity would decline rather than improve, which would only increase the leverage that China and others have over the United States.

The Trump administration is embarking on an economic equivalent of the Vietnam War—a war of choice that will soon result in a quagmire, undermining faith at home and abroad in both the trustworthiness and the competence of the United States—and we all know how that turned out.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, China, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, History, President Donald Trump

(Economist) Trump’s incoherent trade policy will do lasting damage

After the terror, the euphoria. When, on April 9th, President Donald Trump postponed for 90 days the most illogical and destructive of his tariffs, after a meltdown in financial markets, the s&p 500 index of American stocks rose by 9.5%, its fastest daily rise in nearly 17 years. The darkest scenarios for the world economy that had been envisaged by investors until that moment are now unlikely. It seems there is some limit to the market falls the president will tolerate on his watch. After the chaos that had followed Mr Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs a week earlier, that is no small source of comfort for the world.

But do not mistake the consolation of having avoided disaster for good fortune. The scale of the shock to global trade set off by Mr Trump is still, even now, unlike anything seen in history. He has replaced the stable trading relations which America spent over half a century building with whimsical and arbitrary policymaking, in which decisions are posted on social media and not even his advisers know what is coming next. And he is still in an extraordinary trade confrontation with China, the world’s second-biggest economy.

Investors and companies everywhere have been put through the wringer. Global markets crashed in response to Mr Trump’s first tariff announcement. The S&P 500 fell by about 15%. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, as hedge funds were forced to unwind their leveraged positions. The dollar, which is supposed to be a safe haven, fell. After the tariffs were delayed, stockmarkets enjoyed a vertiginous climb. Between its low and high on the day, Nvidia’s value fluctuated by over $430bn.

Even after the tariff pause, however, Treasury yields remain elevated. Global stocks are 11% below their highs in February—and justifiably so

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(Telegraph) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard–If you think it’s alarming now, just wait for President Trump to wreck the bond market

If Trump succeeds in extracting rate cuts from the Fed and tax cuts from Congress, the same problem is going to arise. So my assumption is that he will blame the symptoms and will resort to price controls.

The elephantine difference is that US federal debt was 34pc of GDP in 1971. Today it is 122pc on the Fed measure, and galloping upwards. The fiscal deficit is over 6pc as far as the eye can see.

If you think the stock market gyrations of the last few days are terrifying, just wait until Trump destroys the credibility of the Fed and of US treasury debt, the anchor of the global system.

He could order a captive Fed to relaunch quantitative easing and buy the bonds, but to do that when inflation is running hot would be seen by the whole world as naked fiscal dominance. It would set off a price spiral and a collapse of the currency – the sort of outcome seen over the decades in Latin America, or Erdoğan’s Turkey.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Budget, Credit Markets, Economy, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Gallup) In U.S., Inability to Pay for Care, Medicine Hits New High

 The percentage of U.S. adults who have recently been unable to afford or access quality healthcare has reached 11% — equivalent to nearly 29 million people — its highest level since 2021, according to new findings from the West Health-Gallup Healthcare Indices Study, which classifies these individuals as “Cost Desperate.”

The most notable increases since 2021 have occurred among Hispanic adults (up eight percentage points to 18%), Black adults (up five points to 14%,) and the lowest-income households, earning under $24,000 per year (up 11 points to 25%). Meanwhile, there has been no meaningful change in the proportion of White adults or middle- to high-income earners facing the same level of struggle. As a result, disparities in access to healthcare based on race, ethnicity and income are also at their highest point since surveying began.

Compared with 2021, the percentage of Americans aged 65 and above who are considered Cost Desperate has edged up just one point to 4% in 2024, while rates have risen by three points among those aged 50-64 (now 11%) and by four points among those younger than 50 (now 14%).

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Health & Medicine, Personal Finance

(NY Post) Welcome to the age of Kidults? Grown-ups are buying more toys than preschoolers — to the tune of $1 billion

Bob Friedland’s home in Little Falls, NJ, is filled with Lego. Lego flowers adorn his dining room table. A Lego reproduction of Van Gogh’s “Starry Night” hangs in his office. He has 10 Lego city skylines scattered throughout his abode (one for every town he’s visited). On Halloween, he strings lights on his Lego “Nightmare Before Christmas” set and displays it at the bay window at the front of his house. 

“I had to move out of my condo and into a house to find a place to put them all,” Friedland, 50, told The Post.

Friedland has worked in the toy industry as a marketer for decades, but he only began seriously playing with Lego in 2020. 

Like many adults stuck at home during the Coronavirus pandemic that spring, Friedland found himself alone and anxious. He remembered how playing with the snappable plastic building blocks had brought him joy as a child. So he bought a 1,000-piece Lego “Voltron” set — based on the 1980s cartoon. And then bought another, and another. He’s completed at least 50 sets since, re-creating everything from a bonsai plant to the set of Jerry’s apartment on “Seinfeld.”

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, Children, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, History

(FT) US debt burden to top world war two peak in coming years, watchdog says

The US’s federal debt burden is set to surpass the peak it reached in the wake of the second world war in coming years, Congress’s fiscal watchdog has warned, underscoring growing concerns over America’s public finances.

The Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday that the US’s debt-to-GDP ratio would reach 107 per cent during the 2029 fiscal year — exceeding the 1940s era peak — and continue rising to 156 per cent by 2055. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to be 100 per cent for the 2025 fiscal year.

The projections come just days after Moody’s delivered a warning about the sustainability of the US’s fiscal position, with the rating agency saying that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could compromise attempts to bring its large federal deficit under control by raising interest rates.

“Mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of US debt and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel constrained in their policy choices,” the CBO said on Thursday.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, America/U.S.A., Ethics / Moral Theology, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Economist) The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs will increase the pain

Donald Trump has already raised the average tariff on America’s imports by about twice as much as he did in his entire first presidency. Just as damaging, though, has been the uncertainty about what comes next.

After April 2nd—“Liberation Day”, Mr Trump calls it—there will be another round of levies. The president promises 25% tariffs on all imported cars and country-by-country “reciprocal” tariffs based on how much his administration objects to a counterparty’s trade and tax policies. Will these plans change? Who knows? Mr Trump’s use of emergency powers means that he can do as he pleases.

This freedom may suit him. It does not, however, suit America’s businesses, which have no idea how bad the trade war will get; nor its consumers, who fear future inflation. The liberation America needs is from the paralysing uncertainty brought about by Mr Trump’s chaotic approach.

Since the president came to office, hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico have twice been announced only to be mostly postponed. A long-threatened 10% levy on China has doubled in size.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Foreign Relations, President Donald Trump