Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices—electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance—were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.

Security officials say the electric massagers, sent to the U.K. from Lithuania, appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America.

Read it all.

Exclusive | Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes – WSJ https://t.co/cNY7wdokRm

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) November 5, 2024

The biggest single crisis facing the United States on the eve of the election does not come from Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. It does not come from our enemies abroad. It does not come from our dissensions at home. It does not come from unfunded entitlement commitments. It does not come from climate change. Our greatest and most dangerous crisis is the decay of effective leadership at all levels of our national life, something that makes both our foreign and domestic problems, serious as they are, significantly more daunting than they should be.

Average confidence in institutions ranging from higher education to organized religion rests at historic lows, with fewer than 30% of respondents telling Gallup pollsters that they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in major American institutions. Only small business, the military, and the police inspire majorities of the public with a high degree of confidence; less than a fifth of Americans express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers, big business, television news, and Congress. 

Much of the country’s political and intellectual establishment responds defensively to numbers like this, blaming falling confidence on the corrosive effects of social media or the general backwardness and racism of the American public. The East German communist hacks Bertolt Brecht satirized also blamed their failings on the shortcomings of the masses: “The people have lost the confidence of the government and can only regain it through redoubled work.”

While social media is problematic, and not every citizen of the United States is a model of enlightened cosmopolitanism, America’s core problem today is not that the nation is unworthy of the elites who struggle to lead it. That superficial and dismissive response is itself a symptom of elite failure and an obstacle to the deep reform that the American leadership classes badly need.

Read it all.

America’s Crisis of Leadership: How Teddy Roosevelt can help save us from our Marie Antoinette problem: https://t.co/whepP7cGgG

— Tablet Magazine (@tabletmag) November 4, 2024

[On] October 31, Reformation Day, evangelicals in Argentina [had] an extra reason to celebrate, as their country officially recognizes the National Day of Evangelical and Protestant Churches.

A bill calling for this recognition was approved by the lower Congreso de la Nación chamber, the Chamber of Deputies, last year. In April, the bill was unanimously approved in the Senate Chamber and then signed by president Javier Milei. 

“Today we are not celebrating a religious holiday,” said Christian Hooft, who leads ACIERA (Alliance of Evangelical Churches in the Republic of Argentina), at an event celebrating the day last Monday. “We are celebrating the historical identity of the faith of millions of Argentine citizens.”

Argentina’s evangelicals have long sought this recognition. The country’s Supreme Court has ruled that the country has no official or state religion, and its constitution guarantees freedom of religion, but it also states that “the federal government supports the Roman Catholic apostolic faith.”

Read it all.

Argentina has officially moved to celebrate the National Day of Evangelical and Protestant Churches.

Church leaders are grateful for the government recognition—and seeking to give back.https://t.co/GeWeJuLxga

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) November 1, 2024

Amid U.S. warnings against a counterattack on Israel, Iran is sending a defiant diplomatic message: It is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, said Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.

It remains to be seen whether the Iranian threats are real or just tough talk. Israel’s punishing airstrike against Iran on Oct. 26 shredded the country’s strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed and sharply raising the risks to Iran if it follows through. 

How the Israeli response plays out will depend on the size, nature and effectiveness of Tehran’s threatened strike. So far, Israel has refrained from hitting Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, essential to its economy and its security, but that calculus could change, Israeli officials have said.

Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said. Involving its regular army doesn’t mean its troops would be deployed but that the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that normally deals with Israeli security matters wouldn’t act alone in this case.

Read it all.

WSJ reports #Iran's regime has been sending messages to Arab countries that it is planning a complex response to #Israel involving more powerful warheads & weapons and its regular army. Worth noting Artesh officers have deployed to #Syria in the past.https://t.co/KdVnXRlgIB

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) November 3, 2024

In principle, Ukraine could liberate its lost territory if the United States and its European partners intervened with forces of their own. But this would require jettisoning the indirect strategy they chose in 2022. It would come at great human, military, and economic cost. And it would introduce far greater risk, as it would mean war between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. For this reason, such a policy will not be adopted.

Instead of clinging to an infeasible definition of victory, Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome. It should still define victory as Kyiv remaining sovereign and independent, free to join whatever alliances and associations it wants. But it should jettison the idea that, to win, Kyiv needs to liberate all its land. So as the United States and its allies continue to arm Ukraine, they must take the uncomfortable step of pushing Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin—and laying out a clear sense of how it should do so.

Such a pivot may be unpopular. It will take political courage to make, and it will require care to implement. But it is the only way to end the hostilities, preserve Ukraine as a truly independent country, enable it to rebuild, and avoid a dire outcome for both Ukraine and the world.

Read it all.

The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs https://t.co/YQorbrdOWe

— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) November 4, 2024

He called himself a simple onion farmer, a Mayan Indian with four kids and a fourth-grade education.

U.S. prosecutors knew better.

By his late 30s, Felipe Diego Alonzo had built a crime route stretching from Central America to Texas, allegedly paying off Mexican drug cartels along the way. He tooled around Guatemala’s western highlands in a loaded silver Ford Ranger pickup. When the police finally raided his ranch, they found a study in rural narco-chic: wooden chalets, a swimming pool, a show horse valued at $100,000.

What they didn’t find was a narco. Alonzo’s business “was more profitable than drug trafficking,” said one of the Guatemalan officials who detained him.

Alonzo was moving people.

Read it all.

As smuggling rings made billions from migrants, the U.S. was sidelined https://t.co/QKiCwSIpZx

— Mary Beth Sheridan (@marybsheridan) November 1, 2024

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual.

The Bill, introduced by the Labour MP Pat McFadden in September, seeks to remove the automatic membership of hereditaries in the House of Lords. The move to abolish the remaining 92 hereditary peers was promised in Labour’s election manifesto. The Bill had its Second Reading in the Commons last month. The subject was also debated by the Lords in July, shortly after the election (News, 26 July).

Last month, the Conservative MP Sir Gavin Williamson tabled an amendment to the Bill to include a clause that “No-one shall be a member of the House of Lords by virtue of being a bishop or Archbishop of the Church of England.”

Read it all.

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual https://t.co/8r0VXCxTHC

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 31, 2024

Payments from government entitlement programs — transfer payments — are the fastest-growing major component of citizens’ personal income. Such transfers are the third-largest source of personal income: In 2022, the average citizen received almost as much from government transfers ($11,500) as from investments ($12,900), and more than one-quarter as much money as was obtained from work. This average citizen received six times more (adjusted for inflation) in government transfer payments than in 1970, during which span income from other sources increased less than half as much. Transfers’ share of total (inflation-adjusted) personal income has more than doubled since 1970, from 8.2 percent to 17.6 percent in 2022.

The Washington-based Economic Innovation Group, which promotes economic dynamism, has released a report, “The Great ‘Transfer’-mation,” explaining how swiftly U.S. communities became dependent on government transfer payments. In 2022, Americans received $3.8 trillion in government transfers, 18 percent of all personal income. In 1970, not even 1 percent of counties received one-quarter or more of personal income from transfers. By 2000, 10 percent did; in 2022, it was 53 percent. This is certain to increase as the population ages.

The primary explanation: the aging U.S. population.

Read it all.

https://t.co/O2tuE8fr4b
A mountain of government payments buries the myth of American self-reliance

— The Good Shepherd (@HoyasFan07) October 30, 2024

Infamously, polls in 2016 and 2020 systematically underestimated Mr Trump’s vote, especially in battleground states. After the 2016 election, the post mortem conducted by AAPOR, a professional organisation of pollsters, pointed to a late swing towards the Republican nominee and overrepresentation of graduates in poll samples. Most firms began to weight their samples to do a better job of reflecting the education profile of voters.

In 2020 the underestimation of Mr Trump was repeated for different reasons. This time AAPOR identified non-response bias—Republican voters were less likely to respond to pollsters. One theory is that they were less likely to be at home during the covid-19 pandemic (twiddling their thumbs and responding to surveys). Another is that Republican voters distrust pollsters, which discourages them from answering surveys.

Since 2020 pollsters have been at pains to reach a representative sample. They have experimented with recruitment that appeals to certain sections of society (postcards plastered with patriotic imagery, for example) and new modes, such as text messages. It is anyone’s guess whether this will be enough to account for the Democratic bias in response rates or whether supporters of Mr Trump are still reluctant to answer polls. If the errors seen in 2020 or 2016 are repeated even to a small degree that would be disastrous for Ms Harris—she could lose all seven swing states.

Read it all.

The last Campaign Calculus to print before the election [😱] is on polling errors—all seven swing states are well within a normal polling error of flipping! https://t.co/vhMC84TtFE pic.twitter.com/e2JFce3u16

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) October 29, 2024

The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care.

“A review of funding would find a highly variable model for hospices: some are run by the NHS, with large annual charitable grants, and others are run by a charity that gets some funding from the NHS. A common hallmark is a holistic, bespoke, and patient-centred approach that values their relationships,” he said.

“We should not forget that all receiving hospice care are on the edge of eternity, and dying peacefully also requires spiritual palliative care.”

Read it all.

The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care https://t.co/82wnOqIy6K

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 29, 2024

The soldier squints through his binoculars. “They can see us,” he warns, pointing to a silhouette of two figures on a hill in the distance. The men in his line of sight are soldiers from Eritrea. But the hill is in Tigray, a semi-autonomous region in northern Ethiopia. Eritrean troops control a significant chunk of Ethiopian territory on the border, in places reaching as far as 10km inside it. At night they creep even further south, spying on military positions and kidnapping civilians. “Let them not start a war and we shall not go to war,” says Tsadkan Gebretensae, the interim vice-president of Tigray and a veteran military commander. “But we are very much aware that things could get out of control.”

The tense situation around the hill, near the town of Fatsi, is a hangover from a war that has technically been over for two years. In late 2020 Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, launched what he promised would be a swift, clean military operation to oust Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). What followed instead was one of this century’s most horrific conflicts. To bring the recalcitrant region to heel, Mr Abiy enlisted tens of thousands of fighters from Amhara, a region next door. He also invited troops from Eritrea, which had been part of Ethiopia until seceding in 1993. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed, by bombs, bullets or government-induced famine and disease. Many of the dead were civilians. More than 100,000 women are thought to have been raped.

A peace agreement signed by Ethiopia’s government and the TPLF on November 2nd 2022, stopped the fighting in Tigray. But it did not settle the conflicts between Tigray and the war’s two other main parties, Eritrea and the militias from Amhara. Two years on, that omission helps explain why Mr Abiy faces fresh insurgencies at home and a potential war with Eritrea. These new pressures threaten to further destabilise the Horn of Africa, which is riven by tensions between several states or would-be states and is facing fallout from a catastrophic civil war in Sudan.

Read it all.

A peace deal made two years ago was supposed to ensure that Ethiopia’s warring parties could mend rifts through further negotiations rather than violence.

No such talks have materialised and now another African war looms https://t.co/CPkGQSzenr 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 28, 2024

For the first time in 15 years, the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, have lost their Lower House majority, following a clear rout in Sunday’s general election — a shift that opens up a potential path for the opposition to steer the lower chamber’s agenda if they can act cohesively.

The loss of its majority was likely to prompt Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to seek a third party to join the coalition in order to remain in power — a move that would necessitate negotiations, or even concessions.

Negotiating with a third party for its backing in parliament for every bill would exacerbate political instability and drastically reduce the LDP’s authority over the coalition, making Ishiba’s administration even shakier. The policymaking process would inevitably become more fragmented and laborious, requiring a great deal of political capital from the government.

Within the LDP, calls are now growing for accountability among the party leadership in the wake of the electoral drubbing.

Read it all.

🇯🇵 Elections: the LDP (in power almost without interruption since the 1950s) loses several dozen seats and the majority, even with its Buddhist ally Komeito. In addition to recurring scandals, Moon and and undeclared funding, it lost its image of economic efficiency. pic.twitter.com/yvDBAOkZ24

— Valerie Niquet (@VNiquet) October 28, 2024

Lisa slides a Hellcat pistol into her backpack, slinging it over her shoulder. She jumps out of the driver’s seat of her massive Ford F-250 as we head into a barbecue joint for lunch. Steel brass knuckles glint in the console beside a pencil-shaped, pronged object. She sees me looking at it. 

“That’s my stabby-stick,” Lisa says before I even ask. “In case I can’t bring my gun somewhere. These guys are dangerous.”

“These guys” are sex traffickers, and dangerous doesn’t begin to describe them. 

Many traffickers are members of Mexican or Salvadorian gangs, part of Cuban rings or the vicious Venezuelan group Tren de Aragua. Their modus operandi is luring migrant women and girls across the southern border, promising them good jobs once they get to America, and then forcing them into prostitution once they’re here, ostensibly to pay off the debt they incurred to get into the U.S. Hunting down sex traffickers is not for the faint of heart, and Lisa is not about to take any chances. 

An athletic, no-nonsense blonde in her 50s, Lisa runs a small nonprofit foundation called Shepherd’s Watch, dedicated to bringing down sex-trafficking rings. Prior to starting Shepherd’s Watch in 2016, Lisa had been a telecom engineer and an expert at analyzing cell phone data used in court cases. In that job, she says, she saw a “disturbing” amount of child exploitation. “I couldn’t ignore it anymore.”

Read it all.

NEW Migrant crime story: I shadowed a private investigator in Dallas and saw firsthand how easy it is to “order” a migrant girl off one of dozens of sex solicitation websites. @ShepherdsWatchF is doing great work trying to stop this kind of crime. https://t.co/RJ29TzMKtv

— Maddie Rowley (@Maddie_Rowley_) October 14, 2024

O Sovereign Lord, who didst bring thy servant Alfred to a troubled throne that he might establish peace in a ravaged land and revive learning and the arts among the people: Awake in us also, we beseech thee, a keen desire to increase our understanding while we are in this world, and an eager longing to reach that endless life where all will be made clear; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, for ever and ever.

Alfred the Great died on 26 October 899. This famous text presents his thoughts on wisdom, the benefits of education, and his programme to 'translate certain books – those which are most necessary for all to know – into the language we can all understand': https://t.co/R2KijN0DFF pic.twitter.com/6lsqZwRNz5

— Eleanor Parker (@ClerkofOxford) October 26, 2024

It’s widely rumored that organized religion is going down the drain. While the secularization thesis has been debated for decades, its main components are hardly controversial. Religion has reduced social power: its chief officers have less influence on political ideas and social norms, its language and habits no longer permeate the discourse of public life, and fewer people make collective worship and fellowship the rhythm of their week. Death no longer has a compelling hold on the public imagination: people still die, but usually not in the home or in their youth, and few people are terrified of the prospect of eternal hell. Meanwhile, with the possible exception of minority faiths among recent immigrants, it’s become increasingly difficult to socialize young people into a religion. It’s not that religion adheres to egregious ideas so much as that the whole notion of being habituated into a committed community of ritual and tradition seems incongruous.

There’s little that’s specifically Christian about all this. Real as the church’s failures are, most of its challenges it shares with other institutions associated with the pretechnological era. But in any case, in most congregations in the US mainline and the UK equivalent, a disproportionate number of the people are over age 65. The prospects for self-replication in 30 years’ time aren’t promising.

What are we to do about this? I see three main options…

Read it all.

“We have no idea what lies around the corner. Jesus Christ is the same yesterday, today, and forever, but the way the Holy Spirit makes Christ present to us seems to be ever changing.”

– Samuel Wellshttps://t.co/Vh9j7Gfe1E

— theChristianCentury (@ChristianCent) October 18, 2024

Don’t turn our doctors into killers, says the Star. Like several of the opposing factions to the bill, it cites Canada as exemplifying the slippery slope, with one in twenty deaths there being by assisted dying.

This argument that the bill will open up unforeseen consequences for the disabled, and indeed for the unfortunate residents of bad care homes, is common, Archbishop Welby, facing down former Archbishop Carey, said that assisted dying was in effect a sword of Damocles over the disabled and aged. We should add that many Canadians choosing state sponsored suicide cite feeling a burden on family and caregivers as their motive. Canada surely vindicates Welby.

This argument really is cogent and necessary, but is it sufficient for a Christian view which sees humanity made in the image and likeness of God, leading to the doctrine of the sanctity of life? As Frost says this a doctrine that has permeated and grounded western civilization. Is it not simply wrong to kill people even those begging to die? Hospices and care giving was the Christian answer, but Christianity is fading fast with its practical altruistic legacy of looking after the sick and dying.

Lord Frost has pointed to our society’s reliance on Judaeo Christian ethics for all its institutions and to the perilous situation of breaking with this tradition of the sanctity of life for a callous utilitarianism. So far his is the deepest theological apologia for the classical Christian ethic of life  on offer, we trust Christian leaders will step up to the challenge soon.

Read it all.

Ask MPs to oppose assisted suicide ✋

Some helpful tips here 👇 https://t.co/wr1LYSQylr

— Better Way (@betterwayUK) October 24, 2024

In Shakespeare’s time, people still lived out their days under the shadow of divine reward and punishment. Lady Macbeth hopes otherwise. “A little water clears us of this deed,” she says as she and her husband rinse their hands of blood. How wrong she was. 

Our leaders could use a dose of the humility of Edward, the Earl of March, who prays, “Ere my knee rise from the earth’s cold face / I throw my hands, mine eyes, my heart to Thee / Thou setter-up and plucker-down of kings.”

King Lear knew what it was to be set up and plucked down, and only in his reduced state did he taste the wonder of grace. Shakespeare often echoes what theologians call “the theology of reversal,” as expressed in the Beatitudes.

In the paradox of grace, he describes in As You Like It, “Sweet are the uses of adversity / Which, like the toad, ugly and venomous / Wears yet a precious jewel in his head.” Dogberry, the comical constable in Much Ado About Nothing, gets his words mixed up in a deeply ironic way when he says to a wrongdoer, “O, villain! Thou wilt be condemned into everlasting redemption.”

Read it all.

William Shakespeare’s honest tragedies and bold assumption of God’s providence offer insight in our contentious election season.

From @philipyancey:https://t.co/O4FQPN9eCB

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 23, 2024

More than a quarter of Americans believe that civil war could break out after this year’s presidential election, according to polling for The Times.

Fears that an eruption of violence is very or somewhat likely are shared across the political divide by 27 per cent of American adults, including 30 per cent of women and 24 per cent of men, YouGov found in a survey of 1,266 registered voters on October 18-21.

Twelve per cent of respondents said they knew someone who might take up arms if they thought Donald Trump was cheated out of victory in under two weeks’ time. Five per cent said they knew someone who might do the same if they thought Kamala Harris was cheated.

The YouGov poll found 84 per cent of US voters said America was more divided than ten years ago, with only 5 per cent thinking it less divided.

Read it all (subscription).

Just over a quarter of Americans fear civil war will break out after this year's elections, a new poll for @thetimes by @YouGovAmerica shows https://t.co/v5qGmVwJth

— David Charter (@DavidCharter) October 23, 2024

“It’s very important that we discuss it here in the Senedd today because although the private member’s bill is going forwards in Westminster, if it were passed the implication would be very important in Wales because we have responsibility for health and social care.”

Ms Morgan said it is important to have safeguards to ensure people meet specific criteria, with medical people present when the decision is made….

Carys Moseley, a public policy researcher and analyst for Christian Concern based in Cardiff, said the group was “concerned” about the motion.

She said: “We’ve got a visual display of the actual cases that have been happening in different jurisdictions in the western world.

“These are tragic cases – diabetes being treated as a long-term illness in Oregon, assisted suicide the fifth leading cause of death in Canada – these are very grave issues.”

She said the public question the issue more when they hear about other countries.

“Once you introduce this choice – dying – there is a pressure then which eventually becomes a duty to die,” she said.

“There isn’t such a thing as (going on) ‘your own terms’, because it affects all the doctors that become responsible for killing patients or assisted killing rather than preserving life.

Read it all.

The Welsh Senedd, which has a progressive majority, has overwhelmingly voted down a motion to legalise assisted suicide. The more people learn about assisted suicide the less they like it. pic.twitter.com/fww05M1fLi

— Yuan Yi Zhu (@yuanyi_z) October 23, 2024

Calvin University and Calvin Theological Seminary will award Jakarta-based evangelist and pastor Stephen Tong the 2025 Kuyper Prize.

The award, named for Dutch theologian and politician Abraham Kuyper, is given to scholars or community leaders whose contribution reflects “the ideas and values characteristic of Kuyper’s Neo-Calvinist vision of religious engagement in matters of social, political, and cultural significance.”

Based in Indonesia, the 84-year-old Tong is well-known in the Chinese-speaking world for his large evangelistic crusades and for introducing many to Reformed theology. According to his website, he has preached to 37 million people around the world in his 66 years of ministry. He founded Stephen Tong Evangelistic Ministries International (STEMI) in 1978, opening offices around the world to support his evangelism efforts. 

Read it all.

Indonesian Chinese evangelist Stephen Tong, who introduced the Chinese-speaking world to Reformed theology, will receive @Calvin_Uni’s 2025 Kuyper Prize. @angela818 reports:https://t.co/hVuZ0UOJRJ

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 22, 2024

Canada’s fertility rate hit its lowest rate in recorded history for a second consecutive year in 2023. The spinoff impacts of this are already being felt – with Canada’s aging workforce joining a swelling retirement-age population and increasing economic pressure to meet this groups’ needs and entitlements.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds insight into the reasons behind lagging birth rates. ARI asked 1,300 Canadian adults younger than 50 if they plan to have children, and if not, why? Among this group, one-in-five are definitely (21%) going to have at least one child, while one-in-three (32%) say they may still do so. Within these two groups of potential parents, fully half say that they have delayed having kids longer than they ideally would have wanted. This rises to three-quarters (74%) among 35- to 44-year-olds. The top reasons driving delays are both societal and personal. For many, the search for the right partner has just not borne fruit (40%). For others, however, uncertainty surrounding their finances and the job market (41%) the cost of childcare (33%) and the housing affordability crisis (31%) are all drivers of the decision to wait.

Even among those who are definitely not going to have children (37% of the 1,300 adults surveyed) these worries about childcare and cost are a factor. One-quarter among this group say they decided not to have kids because the spectre of childcare costs was too daunting (25%), while one-in-five (18%) said it was too hard to foresee having proper housing to start a family.

With immigration playing a larger role year over year in sustaining the population – and criticism of immigration policy evidently growing – the historically low birth rate trend divides Canadians. They’re equally likely to feel that the birth rate is (43%) and isn’t (42%) a crisis.

Read it all.

"Half of Canadians who want children have waited longer than they’d like, due largely to cost." –@angusreidorg #cdnpoli #generationalfairness https://t.co/XtH9zRh2nA pic.twitter.com/9BbZg6CFEM

— Generation Squeeze (@GenSqueeze) October 17, 2024

 More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential election years in which Gallup has asked the question.

The latest findings are from a Sept. 16-28 poll, which also finds differences among partisans’ perceptions on this measure — Democrats (72%) are much more likely than independents (35%) or Republicans (7%) to view themselves as “better off.”

The higher-than-usual percentage of U.S. adults who say they are worse off this year is largely owing to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to say this than opponents of the incumbent president’s party had been in prior election years. Likewise, the higher-than-usual percentage of “better off” responses in 2020, when Donald Trump was in office, was attributable to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to give that response than supporters of the incumbent president’s party did in prior election years.

Read it all.

More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago.

New data: https://t.co/TAz6shizZE pic.twitter.com/2qpEG10tGC

— Gallup (@Gallup) October 19, 2024

The Economist has spoken to a range of people with first-hand knowledge of Iran’s oil system. To check and verify what they told us, and flesh out the detail, we then sought information from other sources, including former sanctions officials, Iranian insiders, intelligence professionals and WikiIran, a third-party website soliciting leaks. Our investigation shows that the country has built sprawling shadow financial channels, which run from its oil rigs to the virtual vaults of its central bank. China, Iran’s main buyer, is an architect of this system, and its chief beneficiary. Global banks and financial hubs, often unknowingly, are used as vital cogs. A source familiar with Iran’s books says that, as of July, it had $53bn, €17bn ($19bn) and smaller pots of other currencies lying abroad.

Although enforcement has weakened in recent years, Iran is subject to the broadest sanctions America has imposed on any country. Aimed at forcing Iran to curb its nuclear enrichment and funding of terrorism, they target swathes of its economy, as well as the government. No other country imposes such stringent sanctions, so, in theory, most can deal with Iran. In practice, few do so openly, as America bans its firms not just from trading with Iran, but also with foreigners that knowingly do so. It is especially tough for Iran to receive and move dollars, as every such transaction, almost anywhere in the world, must eventually be cleared by an American bank.

But our report shows that, with patchy enforcement, determination and help from a greedy partner, a country under a de facto global embargo can end up flouting it on a cosmic scale. Many of Iran’s tactics are reminiscent of those a drug cartel would use to market products and recycle proceeds into other dark enterprises, often via seemingly legitimate businesses. Iran’s subterranean oil system is governed by rules as much as by threats. The task is to construct an elaborate charade that will dupe sanctions-enforcers.

Read it all.

Iran's money laundering network (simplified by the Economist) https://t.co/oIUs0Pjo3A pic.twitter.com/qI1FZb8okf

— Dr. Paul J. Sullivan (@DrPJSullivan) October 17, 2024

O God of the nations, who didst give to thy faithful servant Henry Martyn a brilliant mind, a loving heart, and a gift for languages, that he might translate the Scriptures and other holy writings for the peoples of India and Persia: Inspire in us, we beseech thee, a love like his, eager to commit both life and talents to thee who gavest them; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, for ever and ever.

Henry Martyn, 1781 – 1812. Priest and Missionary to India and Persia. One of the founders of the Christian church in India and Iran. While in India he translated the NT into Hindustani, Persian, and Arabic, the Psalms into Persian, and the BCP into Hindustani. pic.twitter.com/C69app75TG

— Saint Barnabas Anglican Church (@Barnabas_FW) October 19, 2024

1 …most of us, in this brash and hasty culture, are more likely to need forbearance and grace for those we believe to be less spiritual, moral, intelligent, or knowledgeable than ourselves.

2-Forbearance isn’t tolerance. Grace is not condescension.

3-Nor are forbearance and grace indecision and cowardice.

4-Remember 1 John 4:20: “Whoever claims to love God yet hates a brother or sister is a liar.”

5-Lasting political disagreement among Christians is not by itself evidence of sin, unbelief, or any other dysfunction. Reasonable, faithful Christians may in good faith reach different conclusions. They may all have solid biblical support for their views; they may all seek the common good; they may all seek to love their neighbors; they may always disagree.

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.@bonniekristian offers 25 precepts on disagreement, faithfulness, forbearance, and voting for this (and every) election season:https://t.co/MlJfCSwgUQ

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) September 30, 2024

As US Election Day approaches, inflation is largely tamed and wage gains have lifted incomes. Yet the economy remains the most pressing issue in the presidential race for one big reason: Increasingly, for many Americans, the long-standing building blocks of middle-class life feel frustratingly unattainable.

The standard 20% down payment on a median-priced home now costs 83% of a year’s income for the typical family ready to buy a home, up from 65% on the eve of the 2016 election, according to Bloomberg calculations. Buying a new car takes almost two extra weeks of work for the median household compared to eight years ago. Child care then cost the same family about a quarter of its weekly income. Now it swallows up more than a third.

And while the cost of attending college has gone down as a share of income in recent years, a median household can expect to pay 75% of its annual income for a private college and more than third for a public in-state university. That is up significantly from when many of today’s parents went to college themselves — and, in turn, can make the price tag look unnerving.

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The Math Says It’s Getting Harder to Break Into the American Middle Class

Some major milestones are becoming frustratingly unattainable for many families – Bloomberg https://t.co/ncqA4FJ6g4?

— Jose A. Briones (@Brioneja) October 18, 2024

Inflation seems under control. The job market remains healthy. Wages, including at the bottom end of the scale, are rising. But this is just a lull. There is a storm approaching, and Americans are not prepared.

Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the U.S. economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.

There should be little surprise in this, since all these are evolving slowly in plain sight. What has not been fully understood is how these changes in combination are likely to transform the lives of working people in ways not seen since the late 1970s, when wage inequality surged and wages at the low end stagnated or even fell.

Together, if handled correctly, these challenges could remake work and deliver much higher productivity, wages and opportunities — something the computer revolution promised and never fulfilled. If we mismanage the moment, they could make good, well-paying jobs scarcer and the economy less dynamic. Our decisions over the next five to 10 years will determine which path we take.

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America is sleepwalking into an economic storm.
— Daron Acemoglu

GIFT ARTICLE

Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape our economy: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.https://t.co/pf82B0DE9N

— Walter Appling (@WalterAppling) October 17, 2024

[According to Barclays’ economists…] The economic circumstances facing China have parallels with Japan’s experience after its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. This created the term ‘Japanification’, which is typically defined as a combination of slow growth, low inflation, and a low policy rate, accompanied by deteriorating demographic trends.

To measure this phenomena, a Japanese economist, Takatoshi Ito, introduced a Japanification Index, which measured the sum of the inflation rate, nominal policy rate, and GDP gap. To apply to China’s economy, we have adjusted this index, replacing the GDP gap with working-age population growth, as the estimation methods of GDP gaps differ across nations and working-age population is by far the most fundamental determinant for long-term growth. Our amended index shows that China’s economy has become more ‘Japanised’ than Japan’s recently, albeit marginally.

This not a surprise to us. A demographic drag, the emergence and collapse of asset bubbles, debt overhang, zombie companies, deflationary pressures from excess capacity/high debt, and high youth unemployment, to name a few, are some of the notable similarities between the economies of China and Japan post their bubbles.

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"The “Japanification” of China continues to be a big theme, with a lot of eerie parallels right down to stimulus proving wanting. Here’s the latest symptom" https://t.co/tlxjGqqgnd pic.twitter.com/TnKwearGl0

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) October 17, 2024

Few sights

have better captured America’s world-beating ingenuity. On October 13th a giant booster rocket built by SpaceX hurtled to the edge of the atmosphere before plunging back to Earth and being neatly caught by the gantry tower from which, only minutes earlier, it had taken off. Thanks to this marvel of engineering, big rockets could become reusable and space exploration cheaper and bolder. Yet, just as the launch was a testimony to American enterprise, so Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, captures all that is going wrong with its politics. In his support for Donald Trump, Mr Musk has spread misinformation about voter fraud and hurricane relief and derided his opponents as ill-intentioned idiots.

America, too, continues to rack up a stellar economic performance even as its politics gets more poisonous. As they prepare to go to the polls in fewer than 20 days’ time, Republicans and Democrats have never mistrusted or disagreed with each other more. Against that gloomy backdrop, can America’s breathtaking economy possibly stay aloft?

Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. Lately, China too has gone backwards. Having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic, its nominal gdp has slipped from about three-quarters of America’s in 2021 to two-thirds today….

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'Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust.' https://t.co/YjpRyqcC5v pic.twitter.com/gon4gqDtQm

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 17, 2024

The Bishop of Newcastle, Dr Helen-Ann Hartley, wrote on X/Twitter: “By all means let’s have the debate. Consideration should also be given to proper investment in pal­liative and social care. And let’s call it what it is: assisted suicide. It’s a slip­pery slope and an absolute de­­grada­tion of the value of human life.”

The Bill was also condemned by leaders of the Church in Wales, who said in a statement on Tuesday that the Christian faith had always been rooted “in the reality of pain and mortality”, as well as “the incalculable value of each human person, irrespective of social standing, access to resources, or physical or mental ability. . . In that spirit, shown to us in the person of Jesus, we give our heartfelt support to the extension of the best possible palliative care to all who require it, so that no limits are put on the compassion which we show as individuals and as a society.”

“This is an extremely difficult issue over which different people, including Christians, will have arrived at differing views with the best of intentions,” said the statement from the Archbishop of Wales, the Rt Revd Andrew John, with the Bishops of Bardsey, Llandaff, Monmouth, St Davids, St Asaph, and Swansea & Brecon.

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Bishops warn of ‘duty’ to die if Leadbeater Bill is carried https://t.co/owjUo4W5Xz

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 16, 2024