The number of displaced workers has risen dramatically since the start of the Great Recession, and this year a third of them had to raid retirement savings to make ends meet.

Making matters worse, many who have lost their jobs have defaulted on 401(k) loans, causing taxes and penalties to further deplete their retirement savings.

“Of greatest concern are those who are in their 40s and 50s,” says Catherine Collinson, president of Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, which released a study today on the retirement outlook of the unemployed and underemployed.

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“The ability of the states to meet their obligations to public employees, to creditors and most critically to the education and well-being of their citizens is threatened,” warned the chairmen of the task force, Richard Ravitch, a former lieutenant governor of New York, and Paul A. Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The report added a strong dose of fiscal pessimism just as many states have seen their immediate budget pressures begin to ease. And it called into question how states will restore the services they have cut during the downturn, saying that the loss of jobs in prisons, hospitals, courts and agencies have been more severe than in any of the past nine recessions.

“This is a fundamental shift in the way governments have responded to recessions and appears to signal a willingness to ”˜unbuild’ state government in a way that has not been done before,” it said, noting that court systems had cut their hours in many states, delaying actions including divorce settlements and criminal trials.

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Facing the same financial stressors that pushed San Bernardino toward bankruptcy, cities across California are slashing day-to-day services and taking other drastic actions to skirt a similar fiscal collapse.

For some, it may not be enough.

San Bernardino on Tuesday became the third California city to seek bankruptcy protection in the last month and, while no one expects the state to be consumed by municipal insolvencies, other cities teeter on the abyss.

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U.S. job growth barely picked up in June, the latest sign that economic growth has slowed.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 80,000 last month, the Labor Department said Friday. The politically important unemployment rate, obtained by a separate survey of U.S. households, was unchanged at 8.2%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a gain of 100,000 in payrolls and the steady June jobless rate.

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Important update: EconomicPicdata notes–“When looking at the household survey, we see that the headline measure of unemployment doesn’t account for the fact that teen employment (likely low pay part-time workers on summer break) accounted for more than 100% of all new jobs. Excluding teens (the second bracket from the left in the chart below), we can see that negative employment number. In addition, individuals over 20 continue to flee the workforce (more than 150,000 more 20+ year olds were classified as “not in the labor force”).” Read it all.

Announcements of a housing recovery have become a wrongheaded rite of summer, but after several years of false hopes, evidence is accumulating that the optimists may finally be right.

The housing market is starting to recover. Prices are rising. Sales are increasing. Home builders are clearing lots and raising frames.

Joe Niece, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price.

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Stockton, California–This Gold Rush-era port city, an epicenter of California’s agricultural exports, will become the nation’s largest city to seek protection under the U.S. bankruptcy code after its City Council on Tuesday stopped bond payments, slashed employee health and retirement benefits and adopted a day-to-day survival budget.

City Manager Bob Deis likened the process to cutting off an arm to save the body. He is expected to file bankruptcy papers immediately…..

Stockton..[had] been in negotiations with its creditors since late March under AB 506, a new California law requiring mediation before a municipality can file for reorganization of debt. It was the first use of the law, and policy analysts who watched its torturous and tedious progress have titled their report on it “Death by a Thousand Meetings.” Mediations ended Monday at midnight.

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Ambitious plans to be put before this week’s EU summit ”“ yes indeed, yet another crisis summit ”“ to turn the eurozone into something much closer to a fiscal union make for easy analysis. On almost any level you care to take, they won’t work.
Here’s the plan. In return for debt pooling, Brussels would be given far reaching powers to rewrite national budgets for member states that breach debt and deficit rules.
Under the previously agreed fiscal compact, Brussels already has the powers to vet budgets before they are submitted to national parliaments, but this goes much further, allowing the EU in effect to over-rule national governments and impose its own diktats on member states….

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European authorities have unveiled their vision for the future of monetary union.

It includes the creation of a European treasury, which would have powers over national budgets.

The document, released ahead of Thursday’s EU summit, says such fiscal union could lead to common debt being issued by eurozone countries.

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Investment experts at Deutsche Bank now feel that a collapse of the common currency is “a very likely scenario.” German companies are preparing themselves for the possibility that their business contacts in Madrid and Barcelona could soon be paying with pesetas again. And in Italy, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is thinking of running a new election campaign, possibly this year, on a return-to-the-lira platform.

Nothing seems impossible anymore, not even a scenario in which all members of the currency zone dust off their old coins and bills — bidding farewell to the euro, and instead welcoming back the guilder, deutsche mark and drachma.

It would be a dream for nationalist politicians, and a nightmare for the economy. Everything that has grown together in two decades of euro history would have to be painstakingly torn apart. Millions of contracts, business relationships and partnerships would have to be reassessed, while thousands of companies would need protection from bankruptcy. All of Europe would plunge into a deep recession

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Nearly four years after a borrowing binge gave way to financial crisis, have households slashed enough debt to take on new credit and start spending again?

Yes, says a growing chorus of economists, with some evidence to back them up. The Federal Reserve’s ratio of debt service payments to disposable income is at its lowest level since 1994.

But that traditional measure is a poor guide today, as credit-hungry adults under 45 bear the brunt of the jobs, housing and student loan crises.

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Definitions of class are hard to come by ”” so much so that the U.S. Department of Commerce, on behalf of Vice President Joe Biden’s White House Task Force on the Middle Class, emphasized descriptive language rather than statistics, finding that “middle-class families are defined by their aspirations more than their income. [We assume] that middle-class families aspire to homeownership, a car, college education for their children, health and retirement security and occasional family vacations.”

The government’s verdict: “It is more difficult now than in the past for many people to achieve middle-class status because prices for certain key goods ”” health care, college and housing ”” have gone up faster than income.”
Median household income has also remained stagnant for more than a decade; when the figures are adjusted for inflation, Americans are making less now than they were when Bill Clinton was in the White House.

There, in brief, is the crisis of our time. The American Dream may be slipping away. We have overcome such challenges before. To recover the Dream requires knowing where it came from, how it lasted so long and why it matters so much.

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By this point in his life, Keith Daniel thought he would be saving for retirement, helping his daughter through college and slugging his way to glory in his local softball league.

Instead, the 52-year-old is burning through his savings and working odd jobs to make ends meet. He hasn’t held a full-time job in over three years.

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The new rules could hit pension plans in states like Illinois and New Jersey particularly hard, and even raise borrowing costs for certain municipalities, analysts say. “This could be the event that incites a bigger policy response than what we’ve seen so far,” says Matt Fabian, managing director at Municipal Market Advisors, a research firm.

The exact impact of the new rules by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board isn’t clear. According to researchers at Boston College, pension liabilities at 126 state and municipal pension plans would jump by roughly $600 billion, or about 18%. The estimate is based on 2010 financial data and doesn’t reflect the stock market’s recent rebound or moves by many U.S. states to rein in pension costs.

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Crude’s down 28% since its February high. Corn’s down about 17%. Gold’s down 12%.

This slide in commodities, though, is a reaction to slowing economies, which makes for a curious leap of logic when one tries to argue that falling commodity prices will help boost those same economies.

“It makes little sense to expect a fall in the oil price to kick-start global growth if it is weak demand which pushed prices down in the first place,” Capital Economics economist Andrew Kenningham wrote. While cheaper gas prices do act as a transfer of income from oil producers ”“ think Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips ”“ to consumers, it’s likely to have only a small effect on global GDP, “depending on the propensities to spend and save among producers and consumers.”

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As financial markets slide toward disaster, scarcely pausing to celebrate the “success” of the Greek election or the deal to recapitalize Spanish banks, the euro project is finally revealing its fatal flaw. One country poses an existential threat to Europe ”“ and it is not Greece, Italy or Spain. Every serious proposal to resolve the euro crisis since 2009 ”“ haircuts for bank bondholders, more realistic fiscal consolidation targets, jointly guaranteed eurobonds, a pan-European bailout fund, quantitative easing by the European Central Bank ”“ has been vetoed by Germany, and this pattern looks likely to be repeated next week.

Nobody should be surprised that Germany has become the greatest threat to Europe. After all, this has happened twice before since 1914. To state this unmentionable fact is not to impugn Germans with original sin, but merely to note Germany’s unusual geopolitical situation….

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The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday a modest increase in its efforts to reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers by extending its existing “Operation Twist” asset-purchase program through the end of the year.

The decision reflects growing concern that the economy once again is stumbling into the summer months after the false promise of a relatively strong winter. The Fed now expects the unemployment rate to fall no lower than 8 percent this year, and inflation to rise no higher than 1.7 percent, both signs of an ailing economy.

Fed officials also have indicated a desire to insure against a pair of looming risks, that events in Europe will freeze global financial markets and that the political stalemate in Washington over fiscal policy will undermine the domestic recovery.

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State and local governments are keeping the tightest lid on spending in three decades, even though tax revenue is rising again and powerful interest groups are asking for more money.

he tight budget controls represent a sharp reversal from several years ago when states struggled to control spending, despite a drop in tax collections, and got a $250 billion bailout from the federal government. Today, both Republicans and Democrats are rejecting spending requests even from traditional allies — police, businesses, teachers, doctors and others — and keeping budgets balanced as federal aid recedes.

“We’re seeing some incredibly significant examples of groups not getting what they want,” says Scott Pattison, head of the National Association of State Budget Officers. “There doesn’t appear to be that much pushback. Maybe there’s an acceptance that cuts have to occur.”

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The U.S. recovery is hobbled by an economic divide that separates Americans not by income or wealth but by their access to credit….

Last year, nearly 90% of all new mortgages originated went to households with high credit scores; before the financial crisis, it was about half, according to Moody’s Analytics and Equifax Inc., a credit monitoring service.

Shrunken access among credit have-nots is triggering more than personal plight. It has weakened the influence of the Fed””one of the best hopes for spurring stronger economic growth””and raised doubts within the central bank about whether it is doing much to reduce unemployment.

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These are anxious days for American workers. Many, like Ms. [Sherry] Woods, are underemployed. Others find pay that is simply not keeping up with their expenses: adjusted for inflation, the median hourly wage was lower in 2011 than it was a decade earlier, according to data from a forthcoming book by the Economic Policy Institute, “The State of Working America, 12th Edition.” Good benefits are harder to come by, and people are staying longer in jobs that they want to leave, afraid that they will not be able to find something better. Only 2.1 million people quit their jobs in March, down from the 2.9 million people who quit in December 2007, the first month of the recession.

“Unfortunately, the wage problems brought on by the recession pile on top of a three-decade stagnation of wages for low- and middle-wage workers,” said Lawrence Mishel, the president of the Economic Policy Institute, a research group in Washington that studies the labor market. “In the aftermath of the financial crisis, there has been persistent high unemployment as households reduced debt and scaled back purchases. The consequence for wages has been substantially slower growth across the board, including white-collar and college-educated workers.”

Now, with the economy shaping up as the central issue of the presidential election, both President Obama and Mitt Romney have been relentlessly trying to make the case that their policies would bring prosperity back. The unease of voters is striking: in a New York Times/CBS News poll in April, half of the respondents said they thought the next generation of Americans would be worse off, while only about a quarter said it would have a better future.

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Group of 20 leaders focused their response to Europe’s financial crisis on stabilizing the region’s banks, raising pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to expand rescue measures as contagion engulfed Spain.

As U.S. President Barack Obama called after-dinner talks with euro-area leaders at the G-20 summit in Mexico, the Treasury department’s top international negotiator, Lael Brainard, said Europe is making an effort to “break the feedback loop” between banks and government debt, the link that is worsening Spain’s woes.

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After spending yesterday in Berlin, I can tell you the German government is mightily fed up with all this speculation – and fed up with getting blamed for everything bad happening in the global economy (last week’s cover of the Economist, for example).

I interviewed the Deputy Finance Minister – Secretary of State Steffen Kampeter – after the German chancellor’s strident speech to the Reichstag.

He made clear that on one major point – eurobonds – the speculation about what Germany might be willing to accept in time for the summit was simply wrong.

Read it all (emphasis hers).

The mainstream parties “looted Greece, and afterward they took the Greek flag and they offered it to Angela Merkel,” the German chancellor, Mr. [Alexis] Tsipras said in a campaign rally in Athens Thursday.

Though Syriza’s message has caught on, not all of the disaffected are ready to embrace the party. Anna Konstantoulaki, a third-year Spanish-literature student at the University of Athens, voted in May for a tiny party. She doesn’t know what to do now. She is upset with mainstream parties but not sure Mr. Tsipras is capable of running the country.

“I am very confused,” she says. “The last few days, I can’t stop thinking about what is going to happen.” She adds: “I’m scared, actually.”

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The hundreds of billions of dollars that banks, insurance companies and other international investors poured into this country after the advent of the euro financed roads and houses, raised wages and helped Constantine Choutlas sustain a 1,000-person construction firm with projects such as building the athletes’ village for the 2004 Olympics.

What it did not do was build a competitive economy, and when the rest of the world woke up to that fact and the money rushed away, so did Choutlas’s business.

“You could see it wouldn’t last. The country was just borrowing money,” Choutlas, whose Proodeftiki Technical has been scaled back to a handful of employees, said as he jabbed a finger in the air for emphasis. “Nobody, nobody, nobody, said lets take a look at where we are going.”

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For one thing, such a bailout is illegal under the Maastricht Treaty, which governs the euro zone. Because the treaty is law in each member state, a bailout would be rejected by Germany’s Constitutional Court.

Moreover, a bailout doesn’t make economic sense, and would likely make the situation worse. Such schemes violate the liability principle, one of the constituting principles of a market economy, which holds that it is the creditors’ responsibility to choose their debtors. If debtors cannot repay, creditors should bear the losses.

If we give up the liability principle, the European market economy will lose its most important allocative virtue: the careful selection of investment opportunities by creditors. We would then waste part of the capital generated by the arduous savings of earlier generations. I am surprised that the president of the world’s most successful capitalist nation would overlook this.

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After clinching Spain’s €100 billion bank bailout, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy flew to Poland on Sunday for the Spanish team’s soccer match, declaring “this matter is now resolved.”

Not so fast, prime minister.

On Tuesday, Spain’s long-term borrowing costs soared to their highest level since the country joined the euro zone. Investors have apparently concluded that the rescue is potentially a much better deal for the banks and their shareholders than for the government, its taxpayers and bondholders.

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The recent recession wiped out nearly two decades of Americans’ wealth, according to government data released Monday, with middle-class families bearing the brunt of the decline.

The Federal Reserve said the median net worth of families plunged by 39 percent in just three years, from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010. That puts Americans roughly on par with where they were back in 1992.

The data represent one of the most detailed looks to date of how the economic downturn altered the landscape of family finance. Over a span of three years, Americans watched progress that took almost a generation to accumulate evaporate. The promise of retirement built on the inevitable rise of the stock market proved illusory for most. Homeownership, once heralded as a pathway to wealth, became an albatross.

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…there are too many unanswered questions. How much capital will actually be provided? Which banks will need to be recapitalized? How will the process be managed? The answers won’t be known until two independent valuation experts have reported at the end of June. The International Monetary Fund assessment estimates €37 billion was needed to ensure all banks had a 7% core Tier 1 ratio on a phased-in Basel III basis. But the market will probably demand at least 9% on a fully loaded Basel III basis after substantial new write-downs, suggesting a number much closer to the full €100 billion.

One key unknown is where the bailout money will come from. Will it be from the old euro-zone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, or the new European Stabilization Mechanism, due to come into existence in July? If it comes from the ESM, existing government bondholders will be subordinated””no small concern given €100 billion is more than 10% of Spanish government debt outstanding. That could affect the willingness of bond markets to keep funding the government.

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Thousands of state workers could find themselves facing a life-changing decision later this month ”” whether to retire or not ”” and with less than a week to make it.

Lawmakers are poised to make major changes in the state’s Retirement Systems that would affect the more than 214,000 state and local government employees covered by that pension system.

State senators want some of the changes to take effect July 1.

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Europe may have sidestepped its latest catastrophe, at least for the moment, by hammering out a €100 billion bailout plan for Spain’s failing banks over the weekend.

But the intervention will do little to address the problem that continues to plague the Continent’s increasingly vulnerable financial institutions. Namely: a longstanding addiction to the borrowed money that provides the day-to-day financing that they need to survive.

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