For almost two years, home foreclosures have swept the nation, spreading misery among once-buoyant families, spattering lenders with red ink and undermining efforts to restart the economy.

But a bigger problem may turn out to be the millions of Americans who are still faithfully paying their mortgages, but on houses worth far less than before the bubble burst. It’s not that these homeowners will stop making their payments. It’s just the opposite ”” that they will keep doing it.

How could that be a source of future trouble? Because, with home prices stagnant in much of the country, payments on mortgages that are underwater could absorb billions of dollars that might be used for other forms of consumer spending ”” a drag on family finances, the housing market and the overall economy.

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(Please take a careful look at this graphic to see the extent of banks exposure to this problem–KSH)

Even before some of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders were forced to suspend foreclosure proceedings because of faulty paperwork, it was becoming clear that the Obama administration’s year-old effort to pump life into the housing market was falling short.

The federal government just reported that 4.2 million homeowners are “seriously delinquent” on their mortgages and some 10.9 million borrowers are underwater, meaning their loans exceed the value of their homes.

To make matter worse, there is the threat of protracted litigation between banks and borrowers because lenders might not have followed the letter of law in processing foreclosure paperwork.

An even bigger source of worry is the $426 billion in so-called second liens — home equity loans, second mortgages and other loans “junior” to the primary mortgage — that sit on the balance sheets of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

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To pay or not to pay is the question now facing some homeowners ”” not because they can’t afford their mortgage, but because they don’t want to keep paying on a home that’s lost value.

But even as they gain popularity, strategic defaults are highly controversial ”” some might say immoral. About a quarter of American homeowners took out loans that are bigger than their homes are now worth, and some of them say it’s simply irrational for them to keep paying the mortgage.

Grace Chen and her husband, Antonis Orphanou, have this debate about their own home. From the outside, there is nothing to flag them as troubled homeowners. They haven’t lost their jobs. Their interest rate has stayed the same. They are not counted among the legions headed to foreclosure. In fact, they haven’t missed a single mortgage payment.

But they’re tempted to.

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The uncertainty over the legal status of foreclosed homes in the nation could further depress home prices and delay the recovery of the housing market, the Obama administration said on Wednesday.

The warning came at the first Congressional hearing since the magnitude of the problem gained wide attention. Distressed properties make up one quarter of all home sales.

Revelations about paperwork shortcuts and so-called robo-signed affidavits, as well as the likelihood of protracted legal battles by homeowners and inquiries by state and federal officials, will hinder foreclosure proceedings and discourage prospective buyers, a Treasury Department official said.

“Together, these two factors may exert downward pressure on overall housing prices both in the short and long run,” said the official, Phyllis R. Caldwell, chief of the homeownership preservation office at the Treasury.

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Home sales picked up in September, but the long-term picture for housing is growing grimmer, say analysts and economists who are pushing back forecasts for a housing recovery.

Earlier this year, the housing market appeared poised for a turnaround, three years after it peaked. Federal tax credits for buyers spurred a flurry of activity, and the economy was adding jobs. That led some economists to forecast housing would hit bottom and begin to recover this year.

Now, some economists don’t see a recovery until late next year or early 2012. “In most markets, the tide seems to be going back out,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, a real-estate site. “The momentum is easing.”

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…when I travel from America to India these days, as I did recently, it’s as if the world has been turned upside down. Indians are brimming with hope and faith in the future. After centuries of stagnation, their economy is on the move, fueling animal spirits and ambition. The whole country feels as if it has been unlocked. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the mood is sour. Americans are glum, dispirited and angry. The middle class, in particular, feels under assault. In a Newsweek poll in September, 63% of Americans said they did not think they would be able to maintain their current standard of living. Perhaps most troubling, Americans are strikingly fatalistic about their prospects. The can-do country is convinced that it can’t.

Americans have good reasons to worry. We have just gone through the worst recession since the Great Depression. The light at the end of the tunnel is dim at best. Sixteen months into the recovery, the unemployment rate is higher than it was in the depths of all but one of the postwar recessions. And as government spending is being pared back, the economy is showing new signs of weakness.

Some experts say that in every recession Americans get gloomy and then recover with the economy. This slump is worse than most; so is the mood. Once demand returns, they say, jobs will come back and, with them, optimism. But Americans are far more apprehensive than usual, and their worries seem to go beyond the short-term debate over stimulus vs. deficit reduction. They fear that we are in the midst of not a cyclical downturn but a structural shift, one that poses huge new challenges to the average American job, pressures the average American wage and endangers the average American Dream. The middle class, many Americans have come to believe, is being hollowed out. I think they are right.

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The Federal Reserve’s push toward easier monetary policy is the “wrong way” to stimulate growth and may amount to a manipulation of the dollar, German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday gave Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea an overview of the U.S. central bank’s efforts to jumpstart the world’s largest economy. His strategy, which investors expect will soon include greater asset purchases, drew criticism at the talks, said Bruederle.

“It’s the wrong way to try to prevent or solve problems by adding more liquidity,” Bruederle told reporters yesterday, saying that emerging-market officials were among the critics. Bruederle, a member of the Free Democratic Party, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, stepped in for hospitalized Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at the meeting.

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Like everyone else, I’d been reading with amazement the stories about one of those legal problems: the robo-signing scandal that has ensnared all the banks with mortgage servicing subsidiaries, Bank of America included. That’s the scandal in which a tiny handful of employees had signed ”” or allowed others to forge their signatures ”” on thousands of affidavits confirming that the banks had the legal right to foreclose on properties they serviced. In truth, they had often never seen the documents proving the bank had that legal right. In some cases, the documents didn’t even exist. As a result of the mounting publicity, many big banks had halted all foreclosures while they reviewed the legality of their affidavits.

Mr. Moynihan said that, at Bank of America, at least, the foreclosure halt in 23 states that require judicial proceedings was over. It had reviewed some 102,000 affidavits and ”” guess what? ”” no big problem! “The teams reviewing data have not found information which was inaccurate” or that would change the plain facts of foreclosure ”” namely that the homeowners it wanted to foreclose on were in serious arrears.

Thus the bank’s central position is that, since it is so doggone obvious that the homeowners can’t pay their mortgages, the fact that the affidavits might not have complied with the law shouldn’t cause anyone to break into a sweat. At one point Mr. Noski actually said, “I think it’s a big issue because people are losing homes. It’s not a big issue” for the servicers. Glad he cleared that up.

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Jeff Horton has a job, two cars and money in the bank. Yet, he stopped paying his mortgage a year ago. With shoddy documentation by mortgage lenders now delaying foreclosures across the US, Jeff thinks he will continue living for free for at least another six months, and probably longer.

The 33-year-old IT specialist is keen to put an end to his disastrous home purchase that will likely leave his bank with a loss of at least $100,000. Until the bank actually makes him leave, he will keep living in the Orlando house, and pocket the $2,200 he used to pay on his monthly mortgage. “I’m not stupid,” he says. “I will live for free until the bank takes over the house.”

Shasta Gaughen, an anthropologist living in California, stopped paying her mortgage in February. She has no idea when her home will actually be taken over. “I have been able to save significantly,” she says. “Every penny that was supposed to go to my mortgage went into savings, around $1,200 a month.”

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Aside from ignoring banks’ bad debts, Washington hasn’t done much to fix the crisis. Both houses of Congress easily passed a bill this year that would have undermined centuries of law by requiring every state to recognize MERS-type electronic records from other states. Only a pocket veto by President Barack Obama kept it from becoming law.

One option, opposed by the Obama Administration and most Republicans in Congress but favored by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and others, is a national moratorium on foreclosures. It would last until regulators assure themselves that lenders have straightened out their foreclosure procedures. Opponents say it would delay the recovery of the housing market by preventing qualified buyers from getting their hands on foreclosed homes. Supporters of the idea, such as Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, say there are plenty of already foreclosed homes available for sale and thus no urgent need to add to the supply.

Goodman, the Amherst Securities analyst, says banks need to reduce the principal that people owe on their homes so they have an incentive not to walk away. “Ignoring the fact that the borrower can and will default when it is his/her most economical solution is an expensive case of denial,” Goodman writes. If the home whose mortgage was reduced happens to regain value, 50 percent of the appreciation would be taxed, she says. Meanwhile, to discourage people from sitting tight in homes while foreclosure proceedings drag on, she would have the government tax the benefit of living in the home rent-free.

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About a month after Washington Mutual Bank made a multimillion-dollar mortgage loan on a mountain home near Santa Barbara, Calif., a crucial piece of paperwork disappeared.

But bank officials were unperturbed. After conducting a “due and diligent search,” an assistant vice president simply drew up an affidavit stating that the paperwork ”” a promissory note committing the borrower to repay the mortgage ”” could not be found, according to court documents.

The handling of that lost note in 2006 was hardly unusual. Mortgage documents of all sorts were treated in an almost lackadaisical way during the dizzying mortgage lending spree from 2005 through 2007, according to court documents, analysts and interviews.

Now those missing and possibly fraudulent documents are at the center of a potentially seismic legal clash….

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Bank of America may be trying to bring down the curtain on the foreclosure furor, but there were numerous indications Tuesday that the problems would not move off-stage so quickly.

A day after the bank said it would once again pursue defaulting borrowers in the 23 states where foreclosures were overseen by the courts, judges in Florida said they were expecting even more challenges from defaulting homeowners.

The White House is convening a meeting of regulators and administration officials on Wednesday to review federal investigations into the foreclosure crisis, while state law enforcement officials emphasized their inquiry into flawed foreclosures was continuing.

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A string of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday indicated the central bank will soon offer further monetary stimulus to the economy, with one saying $100 billion a month in bond buys may be appropriate.

While internal differences on the unconventional policy are still evident, the consensus view at the Fed appears to be that the economy is weak enough to warrant further support, most likely through increased purchases of Treasury debt.

The U.S. economy is expected to have grown just 1.9 percent in the third quarter, a level considered too low to bring down unemployment. The debt purchases would help lower long-term interest rates in the hope of boosting demand.

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In recent times economics has been a religion ”“ and a remarkably silly one ”“ rather than a type of intellectual inquiry, and now that this cheap little creed has been exposed by events it is worth asking what genuine faiths can do to increase our understanding of economic life. In one form or another, this is the question addressed by all the contributors to this timely volume.

Larry Elliott introduces Crisis and Recovery with a wide-ranging analysis of the historical context of the crash, making it clear that: “There is no more chance of ‘business as usual’ than there was of the war that started in August 1914 being all over by Christmas.” The long Edwardian summer of the 1990s and early 2000s, which passed in the shade of the crumbling edifice of American power, is definitely over. History is on the move, and the crude beliefs about how human beings think and act that prevailed in recent times are no longer viable.

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, makes the point that the contribution of theology to the debate is not just to add another dimension to the world of fact ”“ rather, it is to expose the assumptions that are hidden underneath our existing understandings. Simple-minded conceptions of rational choice are pretty useless in most areas of life, so why should anyone think these crude notions could enable us to understand markets? The answer is that human agency has been reduced to a process of calculation, leading to an ethically impoverished and deeply unrealistic view of society.

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Tomorrow, a bank””not your bank, but any bank””could evict you from your home. Even if you didn’t know the bank was foreclosing. Even if your mortgage is paid off. Even if you never had a mortgage to begin with. Even if the bank doesn’t hold a single piece of paper that you signed. And major banks not only know this fact, but have spent millions of dollars to defend it in court. Why? The answer starts with a Jacksonville homeowner named Patrick Jeffs.

In 2007, Deutsche Bank sued Jeffs for his home, which is a necessary step in the process of foreclosing on a homeowner in the state of Florida. Curiously, despite the fact that he immediately hired a law firm to defend his property when he found out about the foreclosure, neither Jeffs nor his attorneys were at the trial. That’s because it had already happened. Deutsche won by default because Jeffs wasn’t able to travel backwards in time to attend, even though the trial featured a signed affidavit indicating that he had been served his court summons.

The only problem with the summons Jeffs supposedly received was that it had been conjured out of thin air.

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The house that set off the national furor over faulty foreclosures is blue-gray and weathered. The porch is piled with furniture and knickknacks awaiting the next yard sale. In the driveway is a busted pickup truck. No one who lives there is going anywhere anytime soon.

Nicolle Bradbury bought this house seven years ago for $75,000, a major step up from the trailer she had been living in with her family. But she lost her job and the $474 monthly mortgage payment became difficult, then impossible.

It should have been a routine foreclosure, with Mrs. Bradbury joining the anonymous millions quietly dispossessed since the recession began. But she was savvy enough to contact a nonprofit group, Pine Tree Legal Assistance, where for once in her 38 years, she caught a break….

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The conventional wisdom has it that the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission ”” the bipartisan group of wise men and women charged with uncovering what caused our recent economic meltdown and telling us what should be done to prevent a recurrence ”” is woefully out-of-touch and out-of-date. A Times article last month suggested that “an exodus of senior employees” from the commission and “internal disagreements” among those remaining could hamper efforts to produce a meaningful and useful report, which is due to be published in December.

But the conventional wisdom is often wrong, and this time will be no exception. I predict that not only will the commission’s report ”” and accompanying documents ”” reveal numerous causes of the crisis that others have overlooked, but also that it will have a significant impact on the regulations that still must be written by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Treasury as part of the implementation on the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. In fact, the inquiry commission may have already played an essential role in beginning to bring fraudsters to justice.

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Homeowners like Nicole West now threaten to slow that system, Florida’s so-called rocket docket, to a crawl. West, who has been fighting to save her Jensen Beach house from foreclosure, has leveled a new allegation in her three-year battle: the entire process is based on fraud.

West said her case is rife with the kind of flawed mortgage documents that have caused lenders including Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to stop the process of foreclosures and evictions across the country. The banks said they are investigating homeowner charges like West’s that signatures were forged and documents were backdated.

“It’s not right,” said West, 40, who lives about an hour’s drive north of West Palm Beach. “It’s like lying to the judge. It’s like lying about what’s really going on.”

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And even when banks did begin hiring to deal with the avalanche of defaults, they often turned to workers with minimal qualifications or work experience, employees a former JPMorgan executive characterized as the “Burger King kids.” In many cases, the banks outsourced their foreclosure operations to law firms like that of David J. Stern, of Florida, which served clients like Citigroup, GMAC and others. Mr. Stern hired outsourcing firms in Guam and the Philippines to help.

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Americans say they have weathered the worst of the longest recession in seven decades, even as they are pessimistic about prospects for their retirement years, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.

Three in five respondents to the Oct. 7-10 poll say their economic condition has improved recently or they are confident it will get better. One in three say things have gotten worse or aren’t likely to improve anytime soon.

“I see some hope, but not a lot,” says poll respondent Brian Ridlon, 34, an out-of-work resident of Green Mountain, Arkansas, who wants to learn how to become a barber. “There are some avenues to improve yourself, but we need more.”

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Attorneys general from all 50 states have put on a “bi-partisan multistate group” to investigate if faulty procedures were used to sign foreclosures which lead to evictions, as the foreclosure freezes extend with GMAC, one of the largest mortgage providers, deciding to review its procedures at a nationwide level. Bank Of America has already imposed a “freeze” on all of its foreclosures.

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In an effort to rush through thousands of home foreclosures since 2007, financial institutions and their mortgage-servicing departments hired hair stylists, Wal-Mart floor workers and people who had worked on assembly lines and installed them in “foreclosure expert” jobs with no formal training, a Florida lawyer says.

Ugh–read it all.

This is not what a recovery is supposed to look like.

In Atlanta, the Bank of America tower, the tallest in the Southeast, is nearly a fifth vacant, and bank officials just wrestled a rent cut from the developer. In Cherry Hill, N.J., 10 percent of the houses on the market are so-called short sales, in which sellers ask for less than they owe lenders. And in Arizona, in sun-blasted desert subdivisions, owners speak of hours cut, jobs lost and meals at soup kitchens.

Less than a month before November elections, the United States is mired in a grim New Normal that could last for years. That has policy makers, particularly the Federal Reserve, considering a range of ever more extreme measures, as noted in the minutes of its last meeting, released Tuesday. Call it recession or recovery, for tens of millions of Americans, there’s little difference.

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“The immaculate lawns and beautiful homes are a sort of facade that covers a growing loss of certainty in the future….”

–Robin Boyle, a professor of urban planning at Wayne State University, speaking to Time Magazine about the real situation in Grosse Pointe, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit for a cover story in September entitled “Real Moms of Grosse Pointe”

A halt in home foreclosures at the largest U.S. mortgage firms may sideline buyers worried about legal issues, further depressing sales at a time when distressed properties account for almost a quarter of all transactions.

Revelations of mistakes in foreclosure proceedings are causing buyers to have misgivings about property titles, the right of home possession, said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at Woodley Park Research in Washington. Confidence in the legality of repossessions will cut foreclosure sales more than a reduction of available properties because the market already is flooded with repossessed homes, he said.

“The legal problems we’re seeing will hit sales as people worry about the legitimacy of the process,” DeKaser said. “The implications are that there’s been shoddy work.”

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… if, as appears to be the case, the overwhelming majority of homeowners facing foreclosure have fallen far behind on their payments, then it is a good deal harder to summon up the same moral outrage over reports that the banks and loan service companies cut corners, failed to keep the right documents and engaged in shoddy and even fraudulent practices. Just because the banks and servicers have screwed up doesn’t mean they and their investors are no longer entitled to get their money back.

Certainly banks and servicers should, at their own expense, be sent back to do things right. Those who engaged in fraud should be punished. And if there are legitimate questions about who owns a loan, those will need to be resolved before the proceeds of any foreclosure are distributed.

But none of that changes the basic reality that there are millions of Americans who took out mortgages they could not support on houses they could not afford. It may be necessary to postpone their day of reckoning for a few months to get the paperwork in order and ensure that all the proper procedures are followed, but the reckoning is inevitable.

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(This post begins with a video interview (length just under 4 1/2 minutes) with Ex-Ginnie Mae CEO Joseph Murin on housing and illegal foreclosures which is well worth the time.)

[The interview continues an] Excellent [level of] detail. Murin says he expects foreclosure delays of between 6-18 months due to the moratorium, which is much longer than most current estimates of 30-90 days.

Here’s the nightmare scenario for banks — more homeowners start to challenge the ownership of their mortgage, and choose to stop paying in the interim, destroying bank profits and balance sheets while they wait for resolution from Congress or the courts. Could get ugly. Quickly.

Both Janet Tavakoli and Chris Whalen said Thursday it could necessitate a 2nd-round of bank bailouts. The outcry from taxpayers would be deafening….

Read it all and please follow the links to the Tavakoli and Whalen comments.

(Please note the above title is from the print edition–KSH).

A snapshot of the problems can be seen at the real estate agency that sold Ms. [Amanda] Ducksworth her home, Marc Joseph Realty, based in Fort Myers.

The agency had 35 deals that were supposed to close this month. As of Thursday, Fannie [Mae] had postponed 11 of them. Another handful of homes that did not have offers or were being prepared for market had also been withdrawn.

“If this wipes out half my inventory, that’s a scary thing,” said Bill Mitchell, the agency’s closing coordinator.

As he spoke, his computer pinged and another message from Fannie [Mae] came through about withdrawing a house. It had the subject line, “Unable to Market Notice.”

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Loans in foreclosure made up about 4% of all mortgages in August vs. the 1995-2005 average of just 0.53%, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks the mortgage market.

“This is unprecedented,” said Herb Blecher, senior vice president at LPS. “In the size and the scope of the problem we’re dealing with now, there is no historical comparison I’ve come across.”

When loans with at least one past due payment are added in, the combined percentage of problem loans rose to nearly 14% of the total outstanding in the second quarter, said the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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Now government statistics are emerging to confirm just how dramatically life has changed for the middle class ”” roughly defined as that half of all U.S households making between $25,000 and $80,000 a year. The economic dead center is represented by households earning the median income of $49,777, according to a recent report from the Census Bureau. Of the 117 million households in the U.S. today, half make more than that amount, and half make less.

Consider these recent government statistics:

In 2009, median household income decreased in 34 states and increased in only one: North Dakota.
Nearly 4 million people fell out of the middle class last year and now live below the federal poverty line. More than 14 percent of the population is under that line, set at about $11,000 annual income for one person or $22,000 for a family of four.
In 2009, enrollment in Medicaid, the medical insurance program for low-income Americans, exceeded 48 million, or a record 15.7 percent of the U.S. population.
As of June, more than 41 million people were collecting food stamps. That was up by 6.4 million, or 18 percent, from the previous year.

Read or listen to it all.