Nearly one in 10 midsize or large employers expects to stop offering health coverage to workers once federal insurance exchanges start in 2014, according to a survey from a large benefits consultant.

Towers Watson also found in a survey completed last month that an additional 20 percent of companies are unsure about what they will do.

Another big benefits consultant, Mercer, found in a June survey of large and smaller employers that 8 percent are either “likely” or “very likely” to end health benefits once the exchanges start.

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In this year’s speech, he is likely to put particular emphasis on what needs to be done to repair the U.S. economy over the longer run, including lowering long-term deficits. The title of the speech, in fact, is “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy.”

While Bernanke has said that Congress should not cut the budget deficit too quickly, lest this austerity undermine the weak economic recovery, he has previously argued that a long-term plan to put the government’s spending in line with its revenue could help instill confidence. Indeed, Deutsche Bank chief economist Peter Hooper said in a research note that the need for longer-term adjustments in the economy could be another argument against new Fed intervention.

“Any action the Fed takes at this point may give the markets no more than a temporary lift and would not resolve the more fundamental problems that are weighing on the economy,” Hooper said.

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I have spoken to this many times in public. Those with the capacity to hire American workers”•small businesses as well as large, publicly traded or private”•are immobilized. Not because they lack entrepreneurial zeal or do not wish to grow; not because they can’t access cheap and available credit. Rather, they simply cannot budget or manage for the uncertainty of fiscal and regulatory policy. In an environment where they are already uncertain of potential growth in demand for their goods and services and have yet to see a significant pickup in top-line revenue, there is palpable angst surrounding the cost of doing business. According to my business contacts, the opera buffa of the debt ceiling negotiations compounded this uncertainty, leaving business decisionmakers frozen in their tracks….

…put yourself in the shoes of a business operator. On the revenue side, you have yet to see a robust recovery in demand; growing your top-line revenue is vexing. You have been driving profits or just maintaining your margins through cost reduction and achieving maximum operating efficiency. You have money in your pocket or a banker increasingly willing to give you credit if and when you decide to expand. But you have no idea where the government will be cutting back on spending, what measures will be taken on the taxation front and how all this will affect your cost structure or customer base. Your most likely reaction is to cross your arms, plant your feet and say: “Show me. I am not going to hire new workers or build a new plant until I have been shown what will come out of this agreement.” Moreover, you might now say to yourself, “I understand from the Federal Reserve that I don’t have to worry about the cost of borrowing for another two years. Given that I don’t know how I am going to be hit by whatever new initiatives the Congress will come up with, but I do know that credit will remain cheap through the next election, what incentive do I have to invest and expand now? Why shouldn’t I wait until the sky is clear?”

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This July was no better than the last for South Carolina job-seekers, and the unemployment rate is rising again.

Across the state and in the greater Charleston area, joblessness is back up to about where it was last summer. South Carolina is now tied with Michigan for third-highest unemployment rate in the nation, behind housing meltdown epicenters Nevada and California.

“It doesn’t give you a lot of hope,” said West Ashley resident Mary Catherine James, 51, who has been job-hunting since April. “It’s very stressful.”

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Like earthquakes, financial crises seem to be accompanied by aftershocks, like the one we’ve been living through this week. They can feel every bit as bad as the crisis itself. But economic history and academic research suggest they can set the stage for a sustainable recovery ”” and eventual sharp stock market gains.

The events of the last few weeks ”” gridlock in Washington, brinksmanship over raising the debt ceiling, Standard & Poor’s downgrade of long-term Treasuries, renewed fears about European debt and a dizzying plunge in the stock market ”” bear an intriguing resemblance to some of the events of 1937-38, the so-called recession within the Depression, with a major caveat: it was a lot worse back then. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 49 percent from its peak in 1937. Manufacturing output fell by 37 percent, a steeper decline than in 1929-33. Unemployment, which had been slowly declining, to 14 percent from 25 percent, surged to 19 percent. Price declines led to deflation.

“The parallels to what is happening now are very strong,” Robert McElvaine, author of “The Great Depression: America, 1929-1941” and a professor of history at Millsaps College, said this week. Then as now, policy makers were struggling with how and when to turn off the fiscal stimulus and monetary easing that had been used to combat the initial crisis.

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Americans’ economic confidence plunged to -53 in the week ending Aug. 7, a level not seen since the recession days of March 2009. This deterioration coincided with the final wrangling over the U.S. debt ceiling and Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the United States’ debt rating. Economic confidence is now far worse than the -43 of two weeks ago and the -34 of a month ago.

Read it all and take a look at those graphs.

From here:

Lord God, we live in disturbing days:
across the world,
prices rise,
debts increase,
markets are in turmoil,
jobs are taken away,
and fragile security is under threat.
Loving God, meet us in our fear and hear our prayer:
be a tower of strength amidst the shifting sands,
and a light in the darkness;
help us receive your gift of peace,
and fix our hearts where true joys are to be found,
in Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday sharply downgraded its outlook for the American economy and took the extraordinary step of signaling that it would hold short-term interest rates at exceptionally low levels “at least through mid-2013.”

The move marks the first time that the U.S. central bank has pegged a specific timetable to a pledge on its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, which has been near zero since late-2008.

But the decision came with three dissenting votes from Fed committee members, reflecting concerns about the threat of runaway inflation down the road.

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Stressed on the job? Add rude co-workers to the list of headaches.

“Workplace incivility” is on the rise, researchers said Sunday at the American Psychological Association annual meeting.
The academics define workplace incivility as “a form of organizational deviance”¦ characterized by low-intensity behaviors that violate respectful workplace norms, appearing vague as to intent to harm.”
Translation: rudeness, insults and plain old bad manners.

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The global economy faces a deep crisis ”” deeper, in some ways, than the panic that struck financial markets in August 2008. At least then there was the prospect of short-term government action: tax cuts and spending increases, quantitative easing, and the like. Those measures averted total meltdown, yet the United States, Europe and Japan failed to restore strong, self-sustaining growth, leaving governments so deeply indebted that aggressive new policy interventions are probably not feasible for now. Indeed, what seems to have sent markets panicking last week is a dawning sense that capitalist democracies may have made more promises than their economies are capable of fulfilling ”” without significant growth-generating structural reforms. Or so it would appear from the recent dramas over bailing out Greece and raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

For Americans, a dead-in-the-water economy would be not only a colossal waste of productive potential but also a human tragedy, as Friday’s announcement of another U.S. unemployment rate above 9 percent cruelly demonstrated. “We need to create a self-sustaining cycle where people are spending, companies are hiring and our economy is growing,” President Obama said.

Well said. But how?….

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My twenties, in particular, were all about achievement: I clerked at the High Court of Australia, received scholarships to study at two Ivy League schools, completed four degrees, cofounded a think tank and, by the age of 26, had secured a tenure-track position at a law school in my country….

The year I married, I started my doctorate at Oxford University….[then] earlier this year, I gave [it] up…to be a stay-at-home mom to our adopted newborn daughter.

It’s the best decision I’ve ever made….

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The U.S. economy is already skirting the razor’s edge that separates recession from recovery.

“There is no emerging source of demand that’s going to lead us to a surge of growth,” says Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute.

He says no one is spending money enough to help the economy expand ”” not consumers, not businesses and not government.

Read or listen to it all.

Take a careful look.

Federal Reserve policy makers may start weighing additional steps to prop up the recovery after growth fell below 1 percent in the first half of this year and economists began cutting second-half growth forecasts.

“At a minimum, the FOMC will have a serious debate about the policy options — what they should do, and what they expect to get from it,” said Roberto Perli, a former associate director in the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. “Growth in the first half was dangerously close to zero,” said Perli, director of policy research at International Strategy & Investment Group.

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The worst U.S. recession since the 1930s was even deeper than previously estimated, reflecting bigger slumps in consumer spending and housing, according to revised figures.

The world’s largest economy shrank 4.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, compared with the 3.7 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Household spending fell 1.2 percent in 2009, twice as much as previously projected and the biggest decline since 1942.

“We do tend to get bigger revisions at turning points in the economy,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press conference this week. On the more positive side, “in the past, we’ve tended to undershoot the recovery” as well, he said.

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The nation’s Roman Catholic bishops are urging the GOP-led House to reject a cuts-only approach to the budget as Washington tries to avert an unprecedented government default on its multi-trillion-dollar debts.

“A just framework for future budgets cannot rely on disproportionate cuts in essential services to poor persons,” wrote Bishop Stephen Blaire of Stockton, Calif., and Bishop Howard Hubbard of Albany, N.Y., in a Tuesday (July 26) letter to House members.

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That’s why the posturing about whether and how Congress should increase the debt ceiling by Aug. 2 has been a hollow exercise. Failure to increase the borrowing limit would harm American prestige and the global financial system. But that’s nothing compared with the real threats to the U.S.’s long-term economic health, which will begin to strike with full force toward the end of this decade: Sharply rising per-capita health-care spending, coupled with the graying of the populace; a generation of workers turning into an outsize generation of beneficiaries. Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Michael J. Boskin, who was President George H.W. Bush’s chief economic adviser, says: “The word ”˜unsustainable’ doesn’t convey the problem enough, in my opinion.”

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George Krowska traveled to Myrtle Beach this spring after a relationship went sour.

He had been staying in a Colorado shelter for a couple of months, the first time in his life the 62-year-old Army veteran was homeless. But in Myrtle Beach, he was abandoned, he said.
Krowska has a heart blockage that qualifies him for disability benefits and requires a certain proximity to a VA hospital, so he hitchhiked to Charleston. At the Ralph H. Johnson VA Medical Center, he received treatment, learned about Crisis Ministries, the area’s homeless shelter and got a bus pass.

The former construction worker is living off of $923 a month, but cannot work because of his heart. More than two months into a maximum 90-day stay, he said he’s growing worried about where he’ll go next.

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More than one in six Americans who work a full- or part-time job also report assisting with care for an elderly or disabled family member, relative, or friend.

Caregivers in the U.S. are diverse, with between 13% and 22% of American workers across major socioeconomic and demographic groups reporting that they fulfill a caregiver role.

These findings are from more than 200,000 surveys of employed Americans collected from January 2010 through June 2011 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index.

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Gwen Corey’s unemployment benefits may run out in September, if she doesn’t qualify for a second extension or find a job before then. She has $6 in her wallet and 15 cents in her bank account for the next three weeks after her rent check clears.

The Mount Pleasant woman has been laid off since fall 2008, except for a temporary stint working for the U.S. Census, and she is desperate to find work.

“I just want to be busy,” Corey said. “I want to be so busy. It drives me crazy to sit around. I cannot sit and watch TV.”

Read it all from the front page of the local paper.

There is great disagreement in Washington over the meaning of last year’s midterm elections, but it’s almost certain that most Americans did not vote for the kind of paralysis that now surrounds the negotiations over the terms of raising the debt ceiling.

Americans voted for, or got, divided government because the public doesn’t fully trust either party with the reins of power. That means the only way out of this problem is through compromise, or what one administration official called “bipartisanship by necessity,” not by choice.

Up until now, enough lawmakers haven’t been ready to accept that in order for a deal to be struck. So the clock ticks.

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South Carolina’s jobless rate spiked in June to 10.5 percent, rising half a percentage point from May, the S.C. Department of Employment and Workforce reported Friday.

A jump in the number of people looking for work combined with a decrease in job openings resulted in the seasonally adjusted increase to put the state the fifth highest in the nation in joblessness, the agency said.

The Charleston metro area’s unemployment rate vaulted from 8.7 percent in May to 9.8 percent in June.

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This medicine is very hard for Americans to swallow, but the truth is, we can’t have it both ways. We want an arms-length relationship with the government in good times. In bad times, the cries go out to “do something,” even if it’s pay us to do nothing. We want a free-market economy during expansions, a nanny state in periods of recession. Privatized profits during the boom, socialized losses during the bust.

–Caroline Baum, in a Bloomberg News piece this week

In short, to revive jobs and the economy, the federal government needs to do the opposite of what families should do in hard times: spend more money.

It’s true that doing this would increase the deficit, and it’s true that budget deficits ultimately need to be faced. But the deficit problem is far less urgent than most elected officials are letting on. In this weak economy with high un­employment, the deficit is a long-term problem, not a short-term one. The immediate issue is unemployment””a problem that calls for spending, not austerity. Along with improving people’s lives, more jobs mean a more robust economy””which will ultimately do more to reduce the deficit than anything else will.

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Companies have long used criminal background checks, credit reports and even searches on Google and LinkedIn to probe the previous lives of prospective employees. Now, some companies are requiring job candidates to also pass a social media background check.

A year-old start-up, Social Intelligence, scrapes the Internet for everything prospective employees may have said or done online in the past seven years.

Then it assembles a dossier with examples of professional honors and charitable work, along with negative information that meets specific criteria: online evidence of racist remarks; references to drugs; sexually explicit photos, text messages or videos; flagrant displays of weapons or bombs and clearly identifiable violent activity.

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Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is at 18.3% in mid-July — precisely the same as at the end of June and in mid-July 2010.

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U.S. employers have added 757,000 jobs to their payrolls in the first half of this year. That actually wouldn’t be so bad if there weren’t so many people out of work. The June unemployment rate of 9.2% was well above the 5% it logged in December 2007, when the recession got under way.

What would it take to get the unemployment rate back down to 5%? Much stronger growth in jobs ”” or a whole lot of time. Here’s a back-of-the-envelope calculation….

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…what is most striking when you talk to employers today is how many of them have used the pressure of the recession to become even more productive by deploying more automation technologies, software, outsourcing, robotics ”” anything they can use to make better products with reduced head count and health care and pension liabilities. That is not going to change. And while many of them are hiring, they are increasingly picky. They are all looking for the same kind of people ”” people who not only have the critical thinking skills to do the value-adding jobs that technology can’t, but also people who can invent, adapt and reinvent their jobs every day, in a market that changes faster than ever.

Today’s college grads need to be aware that the rising trend in Silicon Valley is to evaluate employees every quarter, not annually. Because the merger of globalization and the I.T. revolution means new products are being phased in and out so fast that companies cannot afford to wait until the end of the year to figure out whether a team leader is doing a good job.

Whatever you may be thinking when you apply for a job today, you can be sure the employer is asking this: Can this person add value every hour, every day ”” more than a worker in India, a robot or a computer?

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The small city of Central Falls, R.I., appears to be headed for a rare municipal bankruptcy filing, and state officials are rushing to keep its woes from overwhelming the struggling state.

The impoverished city, operating under a receiver for a year, has promised $80 million worth of retirement benefits to 214 police officers and firefighters, far more than it can afford. Those workers’ pension fund will probably run out of money in October, giving Central Falls the distinction of becoming the second municipality in the United States to exhaust its pension fund, after Prichard, Ala.

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State and federal regulators are cracking down on waste and fraud in the unemployment insurance system, problems that have hit record levels as jobless claims surge in a weak economy.

In the 12 months through March, the overpayment rate was 11.6% ”” more than $1 for every $9 paid out, Labor Department figures show. That’s up from the 12 months that ended in June 2010, when 10.6% of the $156 billion in jobless benefits disbursed to Americans should not have been paid, the department says. The overpayment rate was 9.6% in fiscal 2009 and 9.2% in 2008.

About 9.3 million Americans are currently receiving jobless benefits. Several state agencies have had to borrow money to pay those benefits.

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